跨境热钱的传导机制*——基于动态贝叶斯网络模型

本文将动态贝叶斯网络模型引入到对我国跨境热钱问题的分析中,运用2006年10月至2016年2月的数据研究了我国跨境热钱与外汇市场、房地产市场、股票市场以及货币市场之间的网络传导关系。结果表明：一方面,我国跨境热钱流动的主要原因是受房地产市场与境内外利差的驱动;另一方面,跨境热钱对我国房地产市场的影响最为显著,其次是外汇市场,但并不会显著影响股票市场和货币市场。本文从研究问题、对象和方法等角度进一步丰富了现有相关文献,有助于更全面地认识我国跨境热钱流动的市场反应机制,对相关部门采取前瞻性的调控措施有所启示。     

农业可持续发展问题研究

农业是国民经济的基础,农业的可持续发展是国家长治久安的根本。因此,作为人类生存和发展基础的农业应受到更加广泛的重视。本文分析了农业生产要素对可持续发展的制约和影响以及农业可持续发展所面临的农业环境资源问题,提出了实现农业可持续发展的对策。     

旅游研究与区域旅游发展的共同演化——基于湘鄂渝黔边区的案例分析

旅游研究的广度和深度与区域旅游的发达程度呈正相关关系,旅游研究与旅游目的地生命周期呈现共同演化趋势,旅游研究的内容重心跟随区域旅游发展而不断深化;旅游研究的人员分布以区域内本地学者为主体并以区域为中心向外层扩散。文章以湘鄂渝黔边区20年来的旅游研究文献为例,分析了上述规律与原因。     

大数据时代的零售市场结构变迁——基于电商企业规模扩张的思考

互联网时代电子商务企业有望凭借强大的数据资源优势快速实现规模扩张,实体零售企业面临严峻的生存压力。一方面是传统店铺式企业被迫调整转型,另一方面消费需求的多样性又对电商企业落地经营提出要求。文章以互联网、大数据资源为纽带重构生产、流通、消费关系结构,推进线上线下零售业相关资源的整合与合作,构建交叉型零售渠道模式,是未来中国零售业优化资源配置,提升渠道整体运行效率的有效路径。     

Ambidexterity and performance in multiunit contexts: Cross‐level moderating effects of structural and resource attributes

Research suggests that unit‐level ambidexterity positively impacts subsequent unit performance but theory and testing on this impact remain impoverished. We develop a cross‐level model suggesting that structural and resource attributes of the organizational context significantly shape the relationship between unit ambidexterity and performance. Using multisource and lagged data from 285 organizational units located within 88 autonomous branches, results from hierarchical linear modeling show that this relationship is boosted when the organization is decentralized, more resource munificent, or less resource interdependent. We also find that structural differentiation of the organization does not condition the unit ambidexterity‐performance relationship. Through this cross‐level theory and testing, we develop a richer explanation of the effectiveness of ambidextrous units operating in multiunit contexts. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

基于ELES模型的我国农村居民消费需求价格弹性分析

利用扩展线性支出系统模型(ELES),并借助SPSS13.0统计软件对2009年我国农村居民消费需求价格弹性进行实证分析。结果发现农村居民人均年纯收入与各项消费支出高度相关;农村居民各项消费需求自价格弹性都为负值,位居前三位的分别是交通通讯、居住、文教娱乐用品及服务;农村居民各项消费需求互弹性都小于0,互价格弹性绝对值小于自价格弹性绝对值;各类消费品价格变动对交通通讯需求量影响最大;食品价格变动对其他各类消费品需求量影响最大。最后提出降低交通通讯、居住、文教娱乐用品及服务价格、调整食品价格,使食品价格保持在合理水平、提高农村居民收入等建议。     

扩展边境效应模型的鲁棒性检验研究——基于中美港口航运贸易数据

在边境效应引力模型理论和实证研究的基础上,构建考虑贸易方向、适用于港口进出口航运贸易的边境效应引力模型的扩展模型,基于2005～2009年中美港口数据采用六种方法对构建的扩展模型进行鲁棒性检验和非线性检验。结果发现:构建的扩展模型是一个较优的模型,进出口港口的经济总量、吞吐量和两个港口之间的经济距离是影响双边航运贸易量的关键因素;距离的计算方法会造成边境效应的高估或低估;国家的有形边境会造成无形的贸易障碍,并在进出口两个方向上对贸易的阻碍程度是不对称的,但都显著存在。     

贸易便利化视角下的知识产权边境执法——兼对《反假冒贸易协定》的评论

若干发达国家于2010年10月正式公布了此前一直秘密谈判的《反假冒贸易协定》,旨在进一步加强知识产权的执法体系。于此同时,随着关税壁垒的大幅削减以及各国对国际货物贸易增长的进一步需求,贸易便利化成为各级贸易规则谈判的重要议题。在这样的背景下,贸易便利化与知识产权边境执法之间的相互关系和相互影响问题日渐凸显。本文尝试从贸易便利化的视角来考察知识产权边境执法体系,在概述了《反假冒贸易协定》的边境执法规则后,进一步分析了这套规则对贸易便利化的影响。在此基础上,本文着重讨论了中国应如何在促进贸易便利化和保护知识产权的双向维度下确立恰当的知识产权边境执法体系,并提出了具体的建议。     

Home Bias in Primary Agricultural and Processed Food Trade: Assessing the Effects of National Degree of Uncertainty Aversion

This study investigates the effects of national degrees of uncertainty aversion (unfamiliarity avoidance) on the magnitude of bias towards domestic products rather than imports. The empirical analysis is implemented for primary agricultural and processed food products, using a panel dataset covering trade between and within OECD countries. Primary agricultural products are often blended and associated with reference prices. Conversely, processed food products exhibit higher levels of product differentiation. The empirical results confirm expectations by emphasizing the magnifying effects of uncertainty aversion on home bias in the case of processed food products but not in the case of primary agricultural products. These magnifying effects are primarily associated with processed food products destined for final household consumption. Other results reveal significant variations between different countries (based on geo‐economic and national income categories). Our results also indicate that home bias and uncertainty aversion effects on home bias have not decreased over time. The empirical results remain robust under different estimation methods.     

The Effect of Mandatory Agro‐Environmental Policy on Farm Fertiliser and Pesticide Expenditure

EU farmers are subject to mandatory cross‐compliance measures, requiring them to meet environmental conditions to be eligible for public support. These obligations reinforce incentives for farmers to change their behaviour towards the environment. We apply quasi‐experimental methods to measure the causal relationship between cross‐compliance and some specific farm environmental performance. We find that cross‐compliance reduced farm fertiliser and pesticide expenditure. This result also holds for farmers who participated in other voluntary agro‐environmental schemes. However, the results do not support our expectations that farmers who relied on larger shares of public payments had a stronger motivation to improve their environmental performance.