2004年我国宏观经济研究的最新进展

2004年我国宏观经济运行出现了一些新情况和新问题。围绕我国宏观经济运行中出现的问题,我国经济学界从理论和实践的结合上进行了深入研究,并取得了新的进展。2004年我国宏观经济研究主要在以下九个方面:总供给与总需求均衡问题、通货紧缩和通货膨胀问题、宏观经济波动问题、储蓄与投资问题、就业与失业问题、经济增长问题、宏观调控问题、货币政策和财政政策问题。在这些问题研究上,我国经济学界提出了很多创新的观点。     

Afro-Diasporic women navigating the black ceiling: Individual,relational, and organizational strategies

In this article, we describe how the black ceiling—upheld by the powerful institutional logics of patriarchy and white supremacy, inordinately challenging and interlocking systemic barriers to leadership advancement—leads to the dearth of Afro-Diasporic women in senior corporate leadership positions and pathologizes Afro-Diasporic women as multiple outsiders. As a result, Afro-Diasporic women’s well-being in the workplace is compromised and many adopt coping and survival strategies to navigate a myriad of relational and environmental phenomena, such as spirit murder, emotional taxation, social closure, white privilege, and white fragility. To navigate and ameliorate these dynamics, we advance several individual, relational, and organizational strategies that support Afro-Diasporic women thriving in the workplace.     

Explaining the Appreciation of the Brazilian Real

This article seeks to identify factors explaining the appreciation of the Brazilian real observed since 2003, which was temporarily interrupted only during episodes of financial turbulence. Net foreign assets and the productivity differential relative to Brazil's main trade partners are found to be significant determinants of the real effective exchange rate in the long run. In the short term, exchange-rate developments are mostly explained by movements in net foreign assets. The production of oil is also found to explain developments in the real effective exchange rate in the long run. These results are robust to a wide range of tests. There is evidence of an overvaluation of the real in 2010, but the extent of the misalignment is hard to gauge. Fundamental Equilibrium Exchange Rate estimations point to an overvaluation between 3%–10% in 2010. Dynamic simulations of behavioral exchange-rate equations generally suggest an overvaluation of between 10%–20%. However, these estimations remain subject to large uncertainties.     

Why Do Price Limits Exist in Stock Markets? A Manipulation‐Based Explanation

Numerous stock market regulators around the world impose daily price limits on individual stock price movements. We derive a simple model that shows that price limits may deter stock market manipulators. Based on our model's implications, we predict that regulators impose price limit rules for markets where the likelihood of manipulation is high. We present empirical evidence consistent with this hypothesis. Our study is the first to formally propose a manipulation‐based rationale for the existence of price limits in stock markets.     

基于货币锚效应模型的“两岸四地”人民币区构建实证研究

在复杂的国际经济背景下,“两岸四地”各执一币的格局加大了协同抵抗金融风险的难度。也成为“两岸四地”经贸深入合作和经济进一步融合发展的阻碍。通过以“两岸四地”货币合作的宏观经济基础为前提,从多边汇率相互影响的角度出发,采用“货币锚”效应模型考察人民币汇率的波动态势及其与“港澳台”三地货币之间的联动关系,从而揭示港币、澳门币和新台币对人民币的锚定程度。实证结果显示,“两岸四地”宏观经济政策目标一致性日趋增强,港澳台三地货币在对“锚货币”选择中汇率中人民币权重越来越大,因此“两岸四地”构建人民币区具有一定的可行性。     

我国汇率政策对货币政策的制约效应

汇率政策与货币政策的矛盾影响宏观经济的稳定运行和国家对经济的宏观调控。随着资本项目的进一步开放,货币政策的独立性将受到更大挑战。必须加强对汇率政策和货币政策的协调管理,提高调控目标最优解实现的可能性。     

论意识形态对翻译实践的操控

翻译是文化身份的再现,它受制于文化之间的权力关系。中国传统翻译研究的标准是“忠实”,注重原著与译文之间的文本对比。该文试图借鉴西方操控学派的研究视角来进行分析,揭示在这个传统翻译研究标准之上还有一只操控翻译行为的手———“意识形态”。     

美元国际化:历程与启示

文章依时间顺序将美元国际化进程划分为四个阶段,对每个阶段美元国际化进程进行详细介绍和评价,最后对美元国际化进行深入分析,相应提出人民币国际化建议。     

上调存款准备金率对商业银行股价的影响研究

近期央行加大了运用货币政策工具进行调控的力度,货币政策对经济的调整作用日益显现,同时货币政策的应用对商业银行的经营战略、盈利能力以及股票收益率也产生了一定的影响。然而,在收集了4家国有控股银行和4家全国性股份制商业银行的股票日收益率数据后,运用事件研究法,通过严格的计算,结果证明,存款准备率金的上调对银行的股票收益率产生的影响并不明显。     

凯恩斯的回归:从世界货币到国际国币?

当前的经济危机让人们开始质疑美元作为世界货币的长久性和正当性,呼唤新的布雷顿森林,这样就将凯恩斯重新带入人们的视野。凯恩斯最初布雷顿森林的提议在于反对利率在正常金融力量的作用下在全球范围内处于同等水平的导致风险的制度,反对黄金或者其他任何可自由兑换的世界标准,主张一个多方管理的世界货币(不单是某个国家的货币)来解决贸易失衡,其认为经济活动复苏有赖于国家经济管理的自主性,而资本控制是关键。凯恩斯的提议基于政治理由(即美国的霸权)被拒绝了,但现实经济的发展和当下的经济危机证实了国际货币不再可以是单个国家的货币。凯恩斯提议或许是寻求当前危机出路的最好的起跑点,即好国际合作而非霸权才是唯一的出路。