上市公司利用减值准备进行盈余管理的实证研究--以吉林省上市公司为例

上市公司于2001年1月1日起开始执行新的企业会计制度,新的会计制度与原会计制度相比最显著的变化就是在原来四项资产减值准备计提的基础上又增加四项减值准备。这八项减值准备的计提,充分体现了谨慎性原则对历史成本原则的修正,目的是为了挤出上市公司资产中的水分,保护所有者和债权人的利益,从而化解其投资风险。通过对吉林省上市公司八项资产减值准备计提情况的分析,可以反映出吉林省上市公司利用减值准备进行盈余管理的实际情况。     

Convertibility risk: the precautionary demand for foreign currency in a crisis

This paper presents theoretical work linking money demand to the perceptions of households about the risk that domestic currency may become inconvertible or that it may be devalued. An empirical investigation of the size of this effect is carried out using monthly data for Korea to estimate an augmented demand-for-money equation. It is found that the fear of inconvertibility arising from the 1997 Korean currency crisis may have caused broad money demand to fall by 4–5% points,equivalent to the loss of reserves of $6–7.5 billion (or about 30% of reserves as measured at end-November 1997). This is a revised version of IMF Working paper WP/2001/210; it was written while Professor Black was Senior Policy Advisor at the IMF Institute and Christofides and Mourmouras were staff members in the IMF’s Policy Development and Review Department. The views expressed are those of the authors and should not be attributed to the IMF, its Executive Board, or its management. For useful comments and suggestions we thank an anonymous referee, Tim Lane, Ydahlia Metzgen, Roberto Perelli, Tony Richards, Christian Mulder, Steve Russell, as well as seminar participants at the IMF Institute, the IMF’s Asia and Pacific Department, Federal Reserve Board, and Bank of Indonesia. We would also like to note similar (unpublished) empirical results using our approach by Dr. Rino Effendi for Indonesia and Angana Banerji for Russia     

石油储量价值评价中运销成本级差模型的设计与检验

对石油资源价值评价中的4个成本因素之一——运销成本级差因素进行了讨论。文中分析了运销成本级差因素的组成因子之后．建立对之进行测算的数学模型，并就两个油田的实测数据给出了计算结果。     

Co-ordination of land exploitation,exploitable farmland reserves and national planning in China

Land exploitation, as an important strategy to mitigate farmland loss and stabilize grain production, has been adopted to compensate farmland loss due to rapid urbanization in China. Bounded by the limited capacity and obvious spatial variations of national farmland reserves, it is essential to arrange land exploitation activities timely and reasonably. In this study, we propose an indicator for the status of regional land exploitation, the Exploitation Degree, to facilitate an overview of land exploitation programs in China at both provincial and prefectural levels based on project data from 2006 to 2012. To further our understanding of the regional features of land exploitation activities, we employ the Lasso model to identify and quantitatively assess influencing factors on land exploitation. Our study shows that: (1) contemporary land exploitation practices in China are significantly inconsistent across exploitable farmland reserves. Some areas are greatly over-exploited and such irrational land exploitation has been persistent; (2) related national land plans designed to guide land exploitation efforts centered on resource-rich regions and critical areas do not function as intended. Therefore, we suggest that China⿿s land exploitation policy shall be improved by reconsidering the orientation of land exploitation policy, coordinating land exploitation activities with productivity improvements and eco-system protection, and enhancing the power and scope of the plans in controlling and guiding land resource management.     

森林资源资产组合随机控制模型及决策

在界定了森林生态资产与森林资源资产组合概念的基础上,构建和模拟了基于随机控制理论的森林资源资产组合模型,为森林经营管理者提出了相应的结论和建议:森林经营管理者可以根据最优采伐量与木材价格、补偿价格、成本系数、税率、贴现率、生长率等参数之间的关系,获得在市场经济变动条件下的最优森林资产组合,以保证森林资产净收益的稳定增长。     

亚热带地区国有林场可持续经营指标体系研究

通过实地调查研究,借鉴已发布的国际、国家、地区、经营单位层面森林可持续经营标准和指标,以森林可持续经营为主要内容,对亚热带地区国有林场森林经营、人力资源、社会资源等方面进行研究,构建出亚热带地区国有林场可持续经营指标体系,为亚热带地区国有林场可持续经营提供理论借鉴,期盼为制定亚热带地区森林可持续经营指标提供借鉴。     

乡土正当性与法律正当性在林权纠纷中的博弈——基于桂南两县一区的实地调查

通过背景梳析,在对林权纠纷中地方政府、国有林场、农户的调查后发现乡土正当性和法律正当性在当地林权纠纷中存在冲突,通过分析得出当前的林权纠纷问题具有普遍性和复杂性的基本特征;从制度经济学的产权角度和农户增收角度来看,农户的土地产权应得到维护。     

The Relationship Between Sovereign Spreads and International Reserves: Does the Exchange Rate Regime Matter?

International reserves have been put forward as an important factor affecting sovereign spreads in the literature. This article empirically analyzes whether the relationship between international reserves and sovereign spreads depends on exchange rate policy in emerging markets. The analysis is carried out using exchange rate classifications based on both the officially declared regimes and the actual exchange rate behavior. The results show that international reserves reduce sovereign spreads for all levels of exchange rate flexibility using both classifications. Reserves have a similar effect on spreads for all exchange rate categories, except for hard pegs, under which the effect is larger.     

FX Intervention in the New Keynesian Model

We develop an open-economy New Keynesian Model with foreign exchange (FX) intervention in the presence of a financial accelerator and shocks to risk appetite in international capital markets. We obtain closed-form solutions for optimal monetary and FX intervention policies assuming the central bank cannot commit to future policies, and we compare the solution to that under policy commitment. We show how FX intervention can help reduce the volatility of the exchange rate, of inflation, and of the output gap, thus mitigating welfare losses associated with shocks in the international capital markets. We also show that, when the financial accelerator is strong, there is a risk of indeterminacy (self-fulfilling currency and inflation movements) although FX intervention can reduce this risk and thus reinforce the credibility of the inflation targeting regime. Model simulations match well the impact of a VIX shock obtained by local projections on a panel of inflation targeting emerging markets.     

How forestland size affects household profits from timber harvests: A case-study in China’s Southern collective forest area

To improve the economies of scale in forest management and reduce the fragmentation of forestland, the Chinese central government has implemented a collective forest tenure supplementary reform since 2008. This has included a series of policies for motivating transfer of forestlands use rights among households in the country’s Southern Collective Forest Area (SCFA). However, to date there is little evidence that large-scale forest owners can earn more profits from timber harvests than small-scale forest owners in the SCFA. Using data collected from household surveys in the three of the SCFA’s provinces in 2016, this paper examines the return to scale of forestland ownership for timber harvests in this region, and how the scale of forestland ownership affects households’ profits from timber harvests. The results show a constant return to scale in timber harvests in the case provinces in China’s SCFA, that forestland area makes the most important contribution to the output of timber harvests, and that fragmentation of forestland results in lower profits from timber harvests. It appears that a moderate scale of forestland ownership should be identified for increasing the profits from timber harvests. With the rapid urbanization throughout China, an increase in off-farm employment among rural household members has a negative impact on timber harvests in the region. We argue that policymakers should realize the importance of encouraging the forestland transfers and improve the concentration of forestlands in the next stage of forest tenure rights reform in China’s SCFA.