The power of market mood — Evidence from an emerging market

This article focuses on investor behavior and, consequently, the mood in the market. By using a self-organizing network we develop a model which tries to capture the market mood and serves as an indicator of the reasonableness of selling or purchasing securities. In this sense, the final result of this model is the same as in the model-type prediction of future stock prices, with the only exception being that one is not required to know the concrete future values of the selected security. This will indirectly support the hypothesis that psychological factors are an important (if not key) market driving force.     

THE INFLUENCE OF FUNDAMENTALS ON EXCHANGE RATES: FINDINGS FROM ANALYSES OF NEWS EFFECTS

Abstract As we survey the literature of macroeconomic news in the foreign exchange market, we can by now look back on nearly 30 years of research. The first studies which analysed news effects on exchange rates were established in the early 1990s (see, for example, Dornbusch). Almost at the same time Meese and Rogoff published their influential paper, revealing the forecasting inferiority in exchange rates of structural models against the random walk. This finding has shocked the pillars of exchange rate economics and thus cast general suspicion on research focusing on fundamentals in this field. The eventual rising popularity of event studies can partly be attributed to the re‐establishment of the raison d’être of exchange rate economics. This work focuses on systematically surveying this literature with particular respect to its primary goal, i.e. shedding light on the analytical value of fundamental research. Thus, its major findings are, first, fundamental news does matter, whereas non‐fundamental news matters to a lesser degree. Second, news influences exchange rates via two separated channels, i.e. incorporating common information into prices directly or indirectly based upon order flow. Third, with a few exceptions the impact of fundamental news on exchange rates is fairly stable over time.     

The changing US–China investment relationship

The United States and China are at a turning point in their investment relationship. China’s previous investments in the United States were predominantly in government securities, while other holdings were negligible. Recently, the accumulation of treasury securities has slowed and direct investments by Chinese firms have risen steeply, with Beijing signaling greater support for portfolio investment outflows as well. This article describes the nascent shift in patterns of Chinese investment in the United States and uses the case of direct investment to examine the implications for US–China relations. We discuss current and future policy issues presented by Chinese foreign direct investment (FDI) in the United States, including national security, market access, and antitrust.     

试论建立成本中心加强成本管理提高煤矿经济效益

以建立成本中心加强成本管理，在煤炭企业中的特殊作用为题材。论述了只有加强成本管理，才能使煤炭企业得以生存，才能保证企业稳步发展，使企业经济效益进一步提高，实现扭亏为盈。     

国民收入分配对投资消费失衡的影响分析

投资消费失衡严重制约了我国国民经济持续健康发展,国民收入在企业部门、政府部门、住户部门之间的不合理分配是导致我国投资消费失衡的根本原因。国民收入分配对投资消费失衡影响的数理分析和实证分析表明,对投资率、消费率最有影响的是企业部门在国民收入分配中的比重,其次是政府部门在国民收入分配中的比重,影响最小的是住户部门在国民收入分配中的比重。     

A barrier options approach to modeling project failure: The case of hydrogen fuel infrastructure

Hydrogen fuel cell vehicles have the potential to contribute to a sustainable transport system with zero tailpipe emissions. This requires the construction of a network of fuel stations, a long-term, expensive and highly uncertain investment. We contribute to the literature by including a knock-out barrier option in an n-fold compound real option model to take account of immediate project failure in a multi-stage sequential investment project. Our model allows to explicitly incorporate the default possibility of large-scale energy infrastructure projects. In our case study of hydrogen infrastructure development, we find that even for the least conservative valuation method no profitable business case can be made for the development of hydrogen as a sustainable transportation mode. However, we do provide some suggestive scenarios that plausible tax schedules can be designed to overcome the starting problems for hydrogen infrastructure development.     

基于网络DEA交叉效率模型的我国商业银行效率评价研究

本文从商业银行的实际情况出发，将其经营过程划分为资金筹措与资金运营两个阶段。结合网络DEA与权重平衡交叉效率思想，并利用熵值法处理交叉效率的集结问题，构建了商业银行各子系统及链形系统的交叉效率评价模型。将上述模型应用于我国16家商业银行的效率评价，发现这16家商业银行的效率普遍不高，且城市商业银行的系统平均交叉效率高于国有银行，国有银行的系统平均交叉效率略高于股份制银行。     

Global and Euro Imbalances： China and Germany

We analyze global and euro area imbalances by focusing on China and Germany as large surplus and creditor countries. In the 2000s, domestic reforms expanded the effective labor force, restrained wages, shifted income toward profits and increased corporate saving. As a result, the Chinese and German current account surpluses widened, and that of Germany has proven more persistent, with subdued domestic investment. China is an early-stage creditor, holding a short equity position and a longposition in safe debt. Germany＇s balanced net debt and equity claims mark it as a mature creditor thatprovides insurance to the rest of the world. China pays to lay off equity risk, while Germany, by contrast, harvests a moderate yield on its net claims. In both economies, the shortfall of the net international investment position from cumulated current account surpluses arises from exchange rate changes, asymmetric valuation gains, and, in Germany＇s case, credit losses.     

Behind managerial reforms: the French experience

Inspired by new public management (NPM), managerial reforms in many countries from the 1990s onwards focused on three criteria: effectiveness, efficiency and enhancing service quality. These criteria were meant to be given equal weight in measuring performance, but this paper shows that some criteria dominated. The reform experiences of four countries are compared, with a focus on French reforms.