国内外节能减排政策研究综述

伴随着经济持续快速增长,我国的能源与环境问题也日渐突出。当前,节能减排已成为保持我国社会经济可持续发展的必然选择。本论文从市场手段和行政手段两个方面,综述国内外已经开展的节能减排政策研究,并在此基础上指出利用CGE模型开展节能减排政策研究具有广阔的应用前景。     

An Analysis of Public Agricultural Research in the Canadian Prairie Provinces

This study has developed a four-equation model of agricultural research in Canada using some aspects of special interest theory, institutional theory and economic variables. The demand, supply and allocation equations were developed with special reference to the Canadian agricultural research sector and the more restrictive prairie agricultural research sector. The conceptual model developed is designed to explain the allocation of public expenditures on commodity specific applied research. The reduced-form equation of the model was estimated for 6 commodity classes (2 crops, 4 livestock groups) to test the applicability of the model over the commodity groups.
The evaluation of the reduced-form equation model and the implications that derive from it give an interesting view of the Canadian research sector. Some variables did perform as a priori expected with relative consistency and certain equations performed very well. These results lead to some implications for the Canadian agricultural research sector.
The general performance of the reduced-form equation and its ability to explain the total variation of expenditures on commodity specific agricultural research gives limited support to the model developed. Nevertheless the results tend to indicate that agricultural research is responsive to economic and institutional variables.     

Quasi-Monte Carlo application in CGE systematic sensitivity analysis

The uncertainty and robustness of Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) models can be assessed by conducting a Systematic Sensitivity Analysis (SSA). Different methods have been used in the literature for SSA of CGE models such as Gaussian Quadrature and Monte Carlo methods. This article explores the use of Quasi-random Monte Carlo methods based on the Halton and Sobol’ sequences as means to improve the efficiency over regular Monte Carlo SSA, thus reducing the computational requirements of the SSA. The findings suggest that by using low-discrepancy sequences, the number of simulations required by the regular MC SSA methods can be notably reduced, hence lowering the computational time required for SSA of CGE models.     

气候变化对我国粮食安全的均衡分析

文章基于一般均衡模型构建了A2与B2两种气候变化情景下我国未来社会发展状况,以叶立明等人的研究成果(2030年与2050年我国三大粮食单产变化)作为政策冲击要件,模拟并分析了2030年与2050年我国粮食供给与需求状况。研究结果表明:A2与B2两种气候变化政策情景下的粮食供给与需求存在较大差异,但中低排放情景下的B2气候变化政策情景对我国粮食供需平衡更为有利;针对分品种粮食供需不平衡的状况,该文认为可以从调整种植结构的角度来改善;尽管政策情景下未来粮食供求较为乐观,但影响粮食安全的社会因素较多,保障粮食安全切不可掉以轻心。     

Motivating Employees with Goal-Based Prosocial Rewards*

A recent trend in organizations is to motivate employees with goal-based prosocial rewards, whereby employees must donate their rewards to charities upon goal attainment. We examine the motivational effects of goal-based prosocial rewards versus cash rewards under different levels of goal difficulty. We develop our hypotheses based on affective valuation theory, which posits that when valuing uncertain outcomes by affect rather than calculation, individuals are largely insensitive to changes in probability of the outcomes, including probability of goal attainment. Experiment results support our hypotheses. Specifically, we find that employees who are rewarded with prosocial (vs. cash) goal-based rewards are more likely to adopt an affective valuation approach. Consequently, when employees are assigned either an easy goal or a stretch goal, their effort is higher when incentivized with a goal-based prosocial reward than a cash reward. Furthermore, there is a less curve-linear relationship between goal difficulty and effort with prosocial (vs. cash) goal-based rewards. These findings highlight for incentive system designers the motivational advantage of goal-based prosocial rewards relative to traditional cash rewards. Furthermore, we extend the academic literature by showing how affect-rich rewards such as prosocial rewards can influence employees' assessment of the probability of goal attainment.     

The other trade war: Quantifying the Korea–Japan trade dispute

In mid-2019 a new trade war between Korea and Japan started heating up, while the U.S.–China trade war held the spotlight. This paper documents the recent Korea–Japan trade dispute and quantifies its economic impacts. We consider a set of non-tariff distortions—Japanese export controls combined with Korean boycotts of Japanese goods. We simulate the impact of these actions using a multi-region general equilibrium model calibrated to the GTAP version 10 accounts and observed trade responses in the Korea Customs Service data. We find a welfare loss of 0.144% ($1.0 billion) for Korea and 0.013% ($346 million) for Japan. Sectoral impacts include a 0.25% reduction in chemical production in Japan. In Korea the reduction in imports from Japan is offset by increases in domestic production and imports from other countries.     

Scenario of China Reaching Carbon Peaking ahead of Schedule and Its Effect on Macro Economy

At the 75th session of the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) in 2020, China put forward the goal of peaking carbon dioxide emissions by 2030 and achieving carbon neutrality by 2060, a move to lead global response to climate change that has attracted wide attention and hot comments at home and abroad. Therefore, it is of great practical significance and academic value to explore ways of achieving carbon peaking ahead of schedule and study the macroeconomic effect. This paper, based on Energy, Environment and Economy recursive dynamic computable general equilibrium model (TECGE), a dynamic computable general equilibrium model, carries out a quantitative analysis of the effect of strengthening carbon peaking commitment on China’s future macro economy. By setting up four scenarios, namely carbon peaking of 10.8 billion tons, 10.7 billion tons, 10.58 billion tons and 10.36 billion tons in 2030, 2027, 2025, and 2023, it examines the effects of carbon peaking ahead of schedule and carbon peaking in 2030 on macro economy. The findings show that, compared with the 2030 benchmark, the more ahead of schedule carbon peaking is achieved, the higher the carbon tax prices, and that though GDP and other macroeconomic variables, such as aggregate consumption, aggregate imports and exports decline, the share of the tertiary industry increases. That is, the more ahead of schedule carbon peaking is achieved, the more macroeconomic variables decline, and the more the share of the tertiary industry rises. This paper, using computable general equilibrium (CGE) model to conduct a quantitative analysis of the macroeconomic effect, makes policy recommendations for carbon peaking ahead of schedule and high-quality economic development.     

Inter-metropolitan regional migration galvanized by high-speed rail: A simulation analysis of the Linear Chuo Shinkansen line in Japan

The development of transportation infrastructure impacts migration, production, and other economic activities along with it. In this study, we conducted a multiregional computable general equilibrium simulation analysis to assess the effects that the proposed 2027 high-speed railway, the Linear Chuo Shinkansen in Japan, will have on population migration. The 47 prefectures ordained by the Japanese administrative unit were considered, and the simulation potential workforce population was taken as 110 million. The population is concentrated in the Tokyo metropolitan area. As per our simulation, once the proposed high-speed railway opens, “travel costs” (comprising time and the monetary costs of traveling) will decrease. This situation will stimulate economic activities and lead people to migrate to the prefectures where the economic environment improves. The results show that this development will ease extreme population concentration while simultaneously increasing employment and production values. However, additional analysis indicates that further development of the Linear Shinkansen to strengthen the current high-speed rail on the route to Tokaido will increase population concentration.     

Entrepreneurial Ecosystems as Amplifiers of the Lean Startup Philosophy: Management Control Practices in Earliest-Stage Startups*

Entrepreneurial ecosystems play a key role in the development of startups not only by providing support—such as flexible office space and access to skilled employees, mentors, and investors—but moreover by promoting concrete ideals about “good” entrepreneurship. However, we know less about the role that ecosystems play in managerial practices of startups. In our empirical analysis of management control systems (MCSs) in earliest-stage startups, we witness a strong influence of entrepreneurial ideals—above all, the Lean Startup philosophy—on the MCSs analyzed. Building on cross-sectional field study data resulting from a comprehensive field-immersion strategy and 50 interviews with key actors in an entrepreneurial ecosystem as well as with founder-managers of startups, we consider the entrepreneurial ecosystem as a collective meso-level community that mediates between macro-level institutional pressures and micro-level practices of startups. We show how this community, through a variety of what we term amplifying mechanisms, actively deinstitutionalizes a legacy entrepreneurial philosophy epitomized by the business plan concept. At the same time, the community propagates the Lean Startup philosophy so that this alternative has become the dominant institutional philosophy in the studied ecosystem and its startups. Due to the amplifying mechanisms exerted by the meso level, startups use MCSs that play a crucial role in the rapid experimentation and learning process toward finding a scalable business model that is characteristic of the Lean Startup philosophy. We highlight that this philosophy of scientific experimentation has, to a significant degree, transformed intuitive entrepreneurial processes into a set of transactions that can be steered and accelerated by MCSs.     

煤炭价格下降对我国宏观经济的影响

煤炭在我国能源结构中居于主体地位,由于产能过剩和进口煤大量冲击,煤炭价格下降幅度较大。而煤炭价格已经接近完全市场化,电力价格仍然受政府管制,中央财经领导小组已经定调推动能源体制革命,电价市场化将是我国全面深化改革的重要内容,因此研究电价市场化和受政府管控下煤炭价格下降对宏观经济的影响具有重要的意义。论文利用CGE模型研究了两种情境下我国煤炭价格波动对我国宏观经济的影响,对不同的煤炭价格冲击进行情景模拟并进行了分析,结论表明两种情境下煤炭价格波动对宏观经济变量和21个产业影响是不同的,并据此提供一些政策建议。