“Panelizing” Repeated Cross Sections

This paper considers the implementation of a non-stationary, heterogeneous Markov model for the analysis of binary dependent variables in a time series of repeated cross-sectional (RCS) surveys. The model offers the opportunity to estimate entry and exit transition probabilities and to examine the effects of time-constant and time-varying covariates on the hazards. We show how maximum likelihood estimates of the parameters can be obtained by Fishers method-of-scoring and how to estimate both fixed and time-varying covariate effects. The model is exemplified with an analysis of the labor force participation decision of Dutch and West German women using ISSP (and other) data from 10 annual Dutch surveys conducted between 1987 and 1996 and 7 annual West German surveys conducted between 1988 and 1994. Some open problems concerning the application of the model are discussed.     

Inflation in New EU Member States: A Domestically or Externally Driven Phenomenon?

This article empirically analyzes the domestic and external inflation determinants for eight non-eurozone new EU member states (NMS), using a structural vector autoregression model. Results indicate that foreign shocks are a major factor in explaining inflation dynamics in the medium run, while the short-run inflation dynamics are mainly influenced by domestic shocks. Moreover, the importance of the foreign inflation component has had a rising trend in the precrisis period in all NMS and mostly coincided with their accession to the EU. This trend ended with the onset of the global financial crisis. The study implicates the need to augment the classical Taylor rule with foreign factors in the case of small open economies.     

Food counts. Measuring food consumption and expenditures in household consumption and expenditure surveys (HCES). Introduction to the special issue

This introductory paper presents the results of an international multi-disciplinary research project on the measurement of food consumption in national household surveys. Food consumption data from household surveys are possibly the single most important source of information on poverty, food security, and nutrition outcomes at national, sub-national and household level, and contribute building blocks to global efforts to monitor progress towards the major international development goals.The paper synthesizes case studies from a diverse set of developing and OECD countries, looking at some of the main outstanding research issues as identified by a recent international assessment of 100 existing national household surveys (Smith et al., 2014). The project mobilized expertise from different disciplines (statistics, economics, food security, nutrition) to work towards enhancing our understanding of how to improve the quality and availability of food consumption and expenditure data, while making them more valuable for a diverse set of users. The individual studies summarized in this paper analyze, both theoretically and empirically, how different surveys design options affect the quality of the data being collected and, in turn, the implications for statistical inference and policy analysis.The conclusions and recommendations derived from this collection of studies will be instrumental in advancing the methodological agenda for the collection of household level food data, and will provide national statistical offices and survey practitioners worldwide with practical insights for survey design, while providing poverty, food and nutrition policymakers with greater understanding of these issues, as well as improved tools for and better guidance in policy formulation.     

Can household-based food consumption surveys be used to make inferences about nutrient intakes and inadequacies? A Bangladesh case study

Household Consumption and Expenditures Surveys (HCES) are increasingly being used to make inferences about individual food consumption, despite the fact that they collect food data at only the household level. Usually the analysis assumes that the household’s food is distributed among its members in direct proportion to each member’s share of the household’s total energy requirements; what is referred to as the adult male equivalent (AME) approach. Using the 2011–2012 Bangladesh Integrated Household Survey—which collected consumption data for all members of rural households using combined 24-hour recall (24HR) and food weighing methods—this study directly compared probability-based average estimates of intakes, intake gaps, and the prevalence of inadequacies as estimated by the 24HR and those calculated using the AME approach for energy and each of four micronutrients: vitamin A, iron, zinc, and calcium.At the population level, for iron, vitamin A, and calcium, more than 97% of all individuals had the same estimated prevalence of adequate or inadequate nutrient intakes using 24HR and AME-based estimates. In the case of energy and zinc, roughly 77 and 83% of the sample population had identical adequacy statuses, respectively. The magnitude of inadequacies (the nutrient gaps) differed by 8 percentage points for energy and less than 3 percentage points for the four micronutrients. Disaggregating intakes and inadequacies by age groups revealed that the vast majority of variance between the two methods was highly concentrated in the first few years of life. Children 3 years of age and younger constituted 7.5% of the population but had 13.1% of the inconsistencies in intake adequacy status. 54% of children 3 and under had at least one pair of inconsistent prevalence estimates. While there are important differences in the levels of estimated energy and micronutrient intakes using 24HR and the AME-based estimates for children 3 and under, the results are remarkably comparable for the rest of the population.     

Statistics by Gender: Measures to Reduce Gender Bias in Agricultural Surveys

Statistics by gender has been the concern of policy makers in the recent past years. The demand on data disaggregated by gender has led the survey statistician to collect data and tabulate statistics by gender. In this paper, some measures will be suggested to avoid and reduce gender bias for data collection and tabulation in agricultural surveys.     

A Method to Evaluate Mode Effects on the Mean and Variance of a Continuous Variable in Mixed‐Mode Surveys

Les enquêtes à mode de collecte mixte, dans lesquelles le choix du mode de réponse est laissé aux personnes interrogées, sont de plus en plus répandues. Cette possibilité du choix du mode de réponse peut induire une confusion entre deux sortes d'effets : les effets de sélection et les effets de mesure. L'estimation séparée de ces deux effets est impossible à partir des seules données d'une enquête à mode de collecte mixte. Dans cet article, nous montrons comment la même estimation devient possible à partir d'une comparaison entre les résultats d'une enquête à mode de collecte mixte et ceux d'un enquête à mode de collecte unique basées sur le même questionnaire. La méthode que nous proposons permet d'estimer l'effet du mode de réponse sur la moyenne et la variance d'une variable de réponse continue. Elle est illustrée par l'estimation des effets du mode de réponse sur six questions relatives aux opinions vis‐à‐vis des enquêtes.     

Governance, Democracy and Poverty Reduction: Lessons Drawn from Household Surveys in Sub-Saharan Africa and Latin America

Public statistics face quite a challenge when it comes to measuring new dimensions of development (institutions, governance, and social and political participation). To take up this challenge, modules on Governance, Democracy and Multiple Dimensions of Poverty have been appended to household surveys by National Statistics Institutes in twelve African and Latin American developing countries. This paper presents the issues addressed and the methodological lessons learnt along with a selection of findings to illustrate this innovative approach and demonstrate its analytic potential. We investigate, for instance, the population's support for democratic principles, the respect for civil and political rights and the trust in the political class; the ‘need for the State’, particularly of the poorest; the extent of petty corruption; the reliability of expert surveys on governance; the perception of decentralization policies at local level; the level and vitality of social and political participation, etc. The conclusive appraisal made opens up prospects for the national statistical information systems in the developing countries. The measurement and tracking of this new set of objective and subjective public policy monitoring indicators would benefit from being made systematic.     

Statistical Analysis of Choice Experiments and Surveys

Measures of households' past behavior, their expectations with respect to future events and contingencies, and their intentions with respect to future behavior are frequently collected using household surveys. These questions are conceptually difficult. Answering them requires elaborate cognitive and social processes, and often respondents report only their “best” guesses and/or estimates, using more or less sophisticated heuristics. A large body of literature in psychology and survey research shows that as a result, responses to such questions may be severely biased. In this paper, (1) we describe some of the problems that are typically encountered, (2) provide some empirical illustrations of these biases, and (3) develop a framework for conceptualizing survey response behavior and for integrating structural models of response behavior into the statistical analysis of the underlying economic behavior.