A survey technique for estimating the proportion and sensitivity in a dichotomous finite population

In this paper, a simple survey technique to measure the sensitivity of survey issues is presented. It can be applied to estimate the population proportion as well as the probability that a respondent truthfully states that he or she bears a sensitive character when experienced in a direct response survey. An unbiased estimator of mean square error for direct response survey is obtainable so as to be able to judge the effect on the accuracy in estimation. It is also found that the proposed technique is more efficient than some traditional techniques. A simple extension for polychotomous situations can be developed as well.     

Measuring risk attitude of agricultural producers using a mail survey: how consistent are the methods?

A mail survey is used to examine the consistency of alternative risk preference elicitation procedures using five commonly used methods. These elicitation procedures have been used in previous studies to characterise risk preference. Results show little consistency across procedures, supporting strength-of-preference studies. A general recommendation for mail surveys is the development of relatively easy-to-understand risk-preference elicitation procedures that are framed according to the situational construct in question.     

Towards a flexible online mixed method design with a feedback loop

The notion of mixed methods design relates to the research studies that combine qualitative and quantitative approaches. However, most of these studies are tailored to specific research problem in a particular study and are typically limited to a fixed sequence of qualitative and quantitative approaches (e.g. qualitative interviews followed by a survey or vice-versa). This limitation historically arises from time, cost and logistic restrictions. As an alternative, we develop an general extension of fixed mixed method design by introducing a flexible feedback-loop so that several phases can be combined in a flexible order. In practice, such designs are now increasingly feasible within an information-communication technology environment, where online respondents are readily available for immediate participation. An online experiment combining interactive series of web surveys and in-depth web interviews was performed to compare this approach with standard two-phase designs involving mixed methods. The costs, timing, quality of finiding and experiences of researchers were systematically evaluated. In summary, the proposed approach proved to be very beneficial.     

Zimbabwe’s Agricultural Recovery Programme in the 1990s: an evaluation using household survey data

During the 1990s, the Government of Zimbabwe implemented an Agricultural Recovery Programme to help smallholder farmers recover from repeated severe droughts. The programme aimed to provide drought-affected smallholders with crop packs (free seeds and fertiliser) and mechanised tillage services. This article evaluates the coverage, poverty-sensitivity and impact of the programme using a more in-depth analysis of household survey data than has been done to date. The programme’s tillage component was unsuccessful, repeatedly reaching less than 5% of its target group; the crop pack component, however, reached four-fifths or more of its target group. Most of the poorer households received crop packs, but richer households were slightly more likely to get them. Those who did receive crop packs planted larger areas under staple crops, regardless of their poverty status. These findings are generally robust for a range of poverty proxies. Unfortunately, there is no clear evidence on the impact, if any, of crop packs on grain yields. Crop packs—properly attuned to local agro-ecological conditions—may serve a useful role in post-drought recovery. Steps must be taken, however, to ensure that all the poor receive crop packs. Attempts by government to provide mechanised tillage to hundreds of thousands of smallholder households are not recommended.     

Localised Estimates of Dynamics of Multi‐dimensional Disadvantage: An Application of the Small Area Estimation Technique Using Australian Survey and Census Data

Deep and persistent disadvantage is an important, but statistically rare, phenomenon in the population, and sample sizes are usually not large enough to provide reliable estimates for disaggregated analysis. Survey samples are typically designed to produce estimates of population characteristics of planned areas. The sample sizes are calculated so that the survey estimator for each of the planned areas is of a desired level of precision. However, in many instances, estimators are required for areas of the population for which the survey providing the data was unplanned. Then, for areas with small sample sizes, direct estimation of population characteristics based only on the data available from the particular area tends to be unreliable. This has led to the development of a class of indirect estimators that make use of information from related areas through modelling. A model is used to link similar areas to enhance the estimation of unplanned areas; in other words, they borrow strength from the other areas. Doing so improves the precision of estimated characteristics in the small area, especially in areas with smaller sample sizes. Social science researchers have increasingly employed small area estimation to provide localised estimates of population characteristics from surveys. We explore how to extend this approach within the context of deep and persistent disadvantage in Australia. We find that because of the unique circumstances of the Australian population distribution, direct estimates of disadvantage have substantial variation, but by applying small area estimation, there are significant improvements in precision of estimates.     

Variance Estimation of Imputed Estimators of Change for Repeated Rotating Surveys

A common problem in survey sampling is to compare two cross‐sectional estimates for the same study variable taken from two different waves or occasions. These cross‐sectional estimates often include imputed values to compensate for item non‐response. The estimation of the sampling variance of the estimator of change is useful to judge whether the observed change is statistically significant. Estimating the variance of a change is not straightforward because of the rotation in repeated surveys and imputation. We propose using a multivariate linear regression approach and show how it can be used to accommodate the effect of rotation and imputation. The regression approach gives a design‐consistent estimation of the variance of change when the sampling fraction is small. We illustrate the proposed approach using random hot‐deck imputation, although the proposed estimator can be implemented with other imputation techniques.     

Context effects in inflation surveys: The influence of additional information and prior questions

Context effects are known to affect responses to surveys. We report effects of information and task contexts in surveys of inflation expectations. Information context refers to contextual information about earlier inflation rates or other economic indicators. Task context refers to judgement tasks performed prior to the inflation judgement task under consideration. In three experiments, we show that contextual information improves judgement accuracy. As this information is given in expert, but not in lay surveys, its provision may partly explain why expert judgements are superior to those of lay people. In both expert and lay surveys, respondents make inflation judgements in the context of already having made other inflation judgements. We show that when different groups of people make inflation judgements either for the current or for the upcoming year, their judgements do not differ. However, when the same people make judgements for both the current and the upcoming years, the latter are significantly higher than the former, perhaps because people expect inflation to increase over time.     

What Makes Business Statistics Special?

Non-specialists might have the feeling that building statistics on businesses is a very simple task: it seems one just has to "add facts". But for survey statisticians, business statistics are extremely complex: great heterogeneity of the universe, definition of the statistical units, difficulty of classifying businesses, quality of the register, variety of accounting standards, sample co-ordination, or reduction of survey burden. This paper argues that the issues raised by business survey methodology are conceptual and not only practical. It describes different aspects of statistical processing and tries to analyse the special features of business statistics.     

生育和经济社会的协调发展

有三个相关的生育问题需要作些深入研究,第一个是究竟我国当前生育是在什么水平?第二个是假如总和生育率的水平是1.8,这个水平能在今后三十年保持不变吗?第三个是假如未来三十年总和生育率过高或过低于1.8是不是会不利于人口与经济社会的协调发展?第一个问题应该可以用现有的但没有发表的生育数据作更深入分析和举办一次追踪调查去了解妇女生育的历史,追踪同样样本妇女的妊娠结果(活产、死产、流产)和出生儿童的性别。第二个问题的答案是否定的,因为世界上还没有一个国家能够不鼓励生育而能保持正在下降的出生水平。我国社会具备了生育水平继续下降的一切条件,特别是小家庭社会制度的普及更在促进生育水平下降。第三个问题用人口预测的方法比较未来不同生育水平对人口发展的影响,显示出不同预测的人口总数和年龄结构相差不大,无法得出过高和过低于1.8生育水平的未来人口会不利于人口与经济社会的协调发展的结论。     

以促进教与学为目标的质量保障程序设计

香港中文大学(CUHK)是一所具有双语教学传统的综合性、研究型大学。随着香港特区政府大学质量检查体系在该校的实施,质量保障制度也随之出台。学校采用了一个基于证据的系统来监控并支持所有项目。证据来源面广,所有项目均被要求进行定期反思性检查。检查的目的是提高教学质量,为学生学习提供支持。学能提升与研究中心(CLEAR)在学校质量保障体系的实施中承担主要角色。