Illusory Price Increases after the Euro Changeover in Germany: An Expectancy-Consistent Bias

The aim of the present report is to review research demonstrating the role played by expectations for observed illusory price increases after the euro introduction in Germany. In laboratory experiments when participants are asked to estimate price changes in a restaurant following the euro introduction, the price estimates are found to be biased in the direction of the expectation of rising prices. The research also examines the extent to which a similar judgment bias is evident in other areas and how interventions counteract the bias. A further focus of the research is on the underlying process. In this respect the results show that the bias is based on a selective outcome correction process not previously described. Theoretical implications and practical implications for consumer policy issues are highlighted.

Incorporating heterogeneity with store-level aggregate data

This paper introduces a methodology to incorporate heterogeneity in the analysis of store level aggregate data. The proposed model is validated using two sets of scanner panel data, for tuna and ketchup, and their corresponding weekly aggregate data. The model recovers the true parameters with acceptable accuracy.The model has several advantages over the previous aggregate models, such as the linear model, the semilog model, and the log-log model. First, the cross-price elasticities estimated from the model show the asymmetric responses to the price promotions very close to those from the logit model applied to the panel data. Second, the model shows better prediction performance.     

How price complexity takes its toll: The neglected role of a simplicity bias and fairness in price evaluations

Marketing managers commonly employ complex price plans. Surprisingly, limited and conflicting evidence reports how customers perceive and react to complex prices. This study examines perceptions about price complexity and shows that customers tend to prefer simple prices. Two experimental studies show that perceived price complexity negatively affects customer perceptions of price fairness and influences product choice because customers negatively evaluate the transparency of the firm's pricing practices and infer higher total prices. Customers comparing alternate offerings may therefore prefer simple over complex prices, even when the latter are less expensive. Study results suggest limiting price plan variations positively affects customer inferences about transparency and fairness, and thus customer choice.     

Informational efficiency and behaviour within in-play prediction markets

Studies of financial market informational efficiency have proven burdensome in practice, because it is difficult to pinpoint when news breaks and is known by some or all the participants. We overcome this by designing a framework to detect mispricing, test informational efficiency and evaluate the behavioural biases within high-frequency prediction markets. We demonstrate this using betting exchange data for association football, exploiting the moment when the first goal is scored in a match as major news that breaks cleanly. There are pre-match and in-play mispricing and inefficiency in these markets, explained by reverse favourite-longshot bias (favourite bias). The mispricing tends to increase when the major news is a surprise, such as a goal scored by a longshot team late in a match, with the market underestimating their chances of going on to win These results suggest that, even in prediction markets with large crowds of participants trading state-contingent claims, significant informational inefficiency and behavioural biases can be reflected in prices.     

隧道穿越顺层偏压高瓦斯地段施工控制技术研究

本文就成贵铁路镇雄至毕节区间隧道施工为工程实例,以高坡隧道(D3K338+600.78~D3K343+168.78)在施工过程中穿越顺层偏压高瓦斯地段施工方法及施工控制技术为施工实例,详细阐述了隧道穿越顺层偏压高瓦斯地段时采用“横洞、平导、通风竖井+全封复合式衬砌”方法作为通风及支护的施工控制技术。     

Analysts' Forecasts Following Forced CEO Changes

This paper examines analysts' earnings forecasts during the period of uncertainty following a change of chief executive officer (CEO). It distinguishes between forced and non‐forced CEO changes, and examines whether analysts utilize their information advantage to reduce the heightened uncertainty of a forced change of CEO. Examining a sample of Australian companies followed by analysts between 1999 and 2009, we find that forecasting accuracy is lower and earnings forecasts are more optimistic for firms experiencing forced CEO turnover compared to firms not undergoing such a change. However, dispersion is not statistically different. The results suggest that forced CEO turnover events provide a challenge to the forecasting environment for analysts. During CEO changes, investors should be aware that forecasts are less accurate and have an optimistic bias.     

“省直管县”弱化了资源的城市偏向性配置吗?———财政转移支付视角简

中国长期存在的“城乡二元分治”制度导致资源配置呈现明显的城市偏向特征,加剧了城乡不平等,也不利于社会和谐。基于财政转移支付的视角,文章研究发现,“省直管县”改革通过以下两个机制扭转了资源的城市偏向性配置：第一,“省直管县”改革提高了县乡经济发展激励,增加了县乡公共服务支出责任并提高了县级地区资金匹配能力,有利于县乡在既有分配规则下获取更多的财政转移支付。第二,“省直管县”改善了基层政府的财政地位,减少了上级政府的资金截留;同时使县辖区公共需求向上的传递渠道更加顺畅,从外部环境上为其获得更多的财政转移支付创造了条件。此外,多维度的检验也为深入了解财政转移支付分配规则的缺陷以及如何增进财政转移支付分配的公平性提供了经验证据。     

“工薪族”金融投资理财行为差异分析——基于河南省1685份问卷的抽样调查

"工薪族"已经成为我国商业银行重要的理财细分市场客户群体。为分析我国"工薪族"客户金融投资理财行为和投资理财需求差异,以河南省8个市县地区为样本,采用分层随机抽样法选取近2 000名"工薪族"理财客户进行了问卷调查。调查结果表明:绝大多数"工薪族"属于风险厌恶型投资者,偏好风险较低的金融资产;但是,"工薪族"的负债比例却较高且集中在房屋和汽车等方面;中高收入地区"工薪族"更偏好理财产品,而低收入地区"工薪族"更偏好银行储蓄;低收入地区"工薪族"在投资理财时存在更为明显的从众行为。     

Analysis of household attitudes toward the purchase of livestock products and fish in Cameroon

The need for additional information on household demand for meat and fish in Cameroon is addressed. Probit analysis involving the Heckman selectivity correction procedure is used to estimate the effects of individual and household characteristics on demand for beef, chicken, pork and fish. Results indicate that fish is a relative necessity in Cameroon and is often substituted for beef and chicken by households whose profiles include being of low income levels, having large household sizes, are of middle age and are less educated. Whereas chicken and pork substitute each other, they are each complementary to beef. The profiles of households likely to purchase beef include being married, middle age, educated and of the Muslim faith. Profiles for households most likely to increase their purchases of chicken include being of high income levels and are public sector employed. Some policy implications are provided.