哈尔滨城市化水平与冰雪旅游业发展的关系研究

冰雪旅游在哈尔滨旅游发展战略中占据重要地位,随着城市化水平的提高,哈尔滨冰雪旅游市场得到了快速发展。分析哈尔滨城市化水平及冰雪旅游业的发展现状,利用excel软件对哈尔滨市2001—2010年城市化率与冰雪旅游人数数据进行回归分析,在此基础上构建了哈尔滨城市化率与冰雪旅游人数的关系图,结果表明,随着城市化率的提高,冰雪旅游人数呈增长趋势,当城市化率在48％以上时,冰雪旅游人数呈高速增长态势。     

村落视野中的人口“数字游戏”及其省思

在特定的村落场景中,探讨了人口“数字游戏”的现状、运作规则及其生成机理。村官在数据建构时玩弄的“数字游戏”可分两类一种是出于政治目的,人为地虚报或瞒报数字;另一种是因袭传统的统计标准,随意报送与人口现实不符的数据。前者是基层政治操纵的结果,后者则折射了当下科学统计标准的阙如。在政治体制缺陷与科学统计缺失的双重夹击下,村级的官方统计不求准确,有的甚至是扭曲的。乡村统计实践追根溯源仍在很大程度上为政治所裹挟。这一切彰显了有法不依的尴尬和学术滞后现实的悲哀。强化问责惩处机制自不必说,改变用数字来衡量政绩的体制也势在必行。而以天下为己任的知识者也应反躬自省在解决与现实剥离的含混统计以及在面向现实生活上的使命。     

Estimating Capital Inputs for Productivity Measurement: An Overview of U.S. Concepts and Methods

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) publishes measures of multifactor productivity, which are patterned after the Solow residual. Inputs of capital must be aggregated with inputs of labor. The theory requires a measure of the capital service flow, a rather abstract notion which is rarely observable. The BLS procedures for capital measurement are summarized, and the rationale for these procedures is explored. Implicit measures of capital services are derived from data on property income and data on historical investments which are detailed as to type of asset.     

Paying People to Lie: the Truth about the Budgeting Process

This paper analyzes the counterproductive effects associated with using budgets or targets in an organisation's performance measurement and compensation systems. Paying people on the basis of how their performance relates to a budget or target causes people to game the system and in doing so to destroy value in two main ways: (a) both superiors and subordinates lie in the formulation of budgets and, therefore, gut the budgeting process of the critical unbiased information that is required to coordinate the activities of disparate parts of an organisation, and (b) they game the realisation of the budgets or targets and in doing so destroy value for their organisations. Although most managers and analysts understand that budget gaming is widespread, few understand the huge costs it imposes on organisations and how to lower them. My purpose in this paper is to explain exactly how this happens and how managers and firms can stop this counter‐productive cycle. The key lies not in destroying the budgeting systems, but in changing the way organisations pay people. In particular to stop this highly counter‐productive behaviour we must stop using budgets or targets in the compensation formulas and promotion systems for employees and managers. This means taking all kinks, discontinuities and non‐linearities out of the pay‐for‐performance profile of each employee and manager. Such purely linear compensation formulas provide no incentives to lie, or to withhold and distort information, or to game the system. While the evidence on the costs of these systems is not extensive, I believe that solving the problems could easily result in large productivity and value increases – sometimes as much as 50–100% improvements in productivity. I believe the less intensive reliance on such budget/target systems is an important cause of the increased productivity of entrepreneurial and LBO firms. Moreover, eliminating budget/target‐induced gaming from the management system will eliminate one of the major forces leading to the general loss of integrity in organisations. People are taught to lie in these pervasive budgeting systems because if they tell the truth they often get punished and if they lie they get rewarded. Once taught to lie in this system people generally cannot help but extend that behaviour to all sorts of other relationships in the organisation.     

Estimating Recreational User Counts

This article outlines a methodology for estimating the number of individual visitors to a set of recreational sites, as well as counts of specific visitor groups. The model is designed for sets of sites characterized by: ( a ) unrestricted recreation from a wide and partially unknown geographic market; ( b ) individuals who may visit more than one site; ( c ) accurate visitation (gate) counts from each site. The model provides consistent estimates of the total number of individual visitors, based on information embedded in site-level count and survey data. Monte Carlo analysis and an empirical application illustrate the properties of visitor count estimates.     

一种复模糊数四则运算及其隶属函数的确定

本文通过对模糊结构元理论及模糊数运算的研究,给出了基于结构元理论的一般复Fuzzy数定义、隶属函数及四则运算定义,对结构元生成的复Fuzzy数四则运算进行了探讨,给出了不同情形下复Fuzzy数四则运算的隶属函数表达式,并对上述结论进行了证明。     

The formation of forward freight agreement rates in dry bulk shipping: Spot rates,risk premia,and heterogeneous expectations

We examine the formation of forward rates in the dry bulk shipping industry. We illustrate that the bulk of basis volatility can be attributed to expectations about future physical market conditions rather than expectations about future risk premia. However, there exists significant predictability of risk premia by both price-based signals and economic variables. To explain this finding, we develop a dynamic asset pricing framework where, apart from having different objective functions, agents might also differ in the way they form expectations about future market conditions. Accordingly, we argue that the average investor should hold “near-rational” but slightly contrarian beliefs.     

Remarks on nonlinear congruential pseudorandom numbers

We simplify, improve, and generalize the recent work of Eichenauer, Grothe, and Lehn on nonlinear congruential pseudorandom numbers and their performance under the lattice test.     

企业估值中价值乘数的选择：基于行业差异性的研究

基于行业差异性理论分析不同行业在经济结构、经济周期、要素集约度、资本结构等方面的差异,目的在于论证行业的差异性是否会导致价值乘数的非对称性。探求不同价值乘数的行业适用性,以形成不同行业与价值乘数之间的双向匹配关系。根据要素集约度选取采掘业、建筑业、交通运输业以及信息技术业作为研究对象,在实证研究的基础上,确定价值乘数选择条件及优先等级,进而确定行业乘数。