一种基于深度学习的交通标志识别新算法

针对特定场景交通标志精度低与识别速度慢的问题,基于交通标志边缘信息与卷积神经网络,提出了一种交通标志图像识别T-YOLO算法。该算法基于YOLOv2算法检测思想,融合残差网络、卷积层填充0等结构,下采样舍弃池化层改用卷积层,并提取边缘信息与上采样以提升精度,设计7层特征提取网络以缩短识别速度,随后使用Softmax函数归一化实现多分类,并采用批量归一化、多尺度训练等方法缩短训练时间。实验表明,该算法真实有效,图形处理单元（Graphic Processing Unit,GPU）平台上最快检测速度13.69 ms/frame,每帧缩短9.51 ms,最高平均准确率97.3%,提高7.1%,满足实时高精度识别要求。与其他算法相比,该算法在交通标志识别速度与精度方面均有大幅提高,更加适用于现实场景,更贴近车载嵌入式系统。     

Macroeconomic impacts of China’s foreign exchange reserve accumulation: a vector autoregression analysis using pure-sign-restriction approach

This study employs pure-sign-restriction approach analysing the macroeconomic impacts of foreign reserve accumulation and discusses the foreign exchange sterilization behaviour of the People’s Bank of China (PBoC). Sign restriction analysis shows that the effects of reserve accumulation shock are initially ambiguous on all variables, but later a positive influence only on base money can be observed. With regard to sterilization intervention, the effect is significant even though it degrades gradually over time. In China, the monetary authority actively undertakes sterilization intervention in order to remove the influence of passive release of base money caused by foreign reserve accumulation.     

Changes in US Monetary Policy and Its Transmission over the Last Century

In this paper, we investigate US monetary policy and its time‐varying effects over more than 130 years. For that purpose, we use a Bayesian time‐varying parameter vector autoregression that features modern shrinkage priors and stochastic volatility. Our results can be summarized as follows: First, we find that monetary policy transmits jointly through the interest rate, credit/bank lending and wealth channels. Second, we find evidence for changes of both responses to a monetary policy shock and volatility characterizing the macroeconomic environment. Effects on the macroeconomy are significantly lower in the period from 1960 to 2013 than in the early part of our sample, whereas responses of short‐ and long‐term interest rates are nearly unaltered throughout the sample. Changes in the way the Fed conducts monetary policy and different economic environments may account for that.     

通货膨胀、汇率波动与货币政策——基于符号约束的贝叶斯VAR模型实证研究

通过构建通货膨胀形成的理论模型,本文运用符号约束的贝叶斯VAR方法探讨通货膨胀和汇率波动对产出增长的影响。结果发现：实际利率对通货膨胀和人民币升值冲击均有较大的响应,且受通货膨胀的影响更大,即稳定价格的货币政策比稳定汇率的政策更加有效;通货膨胀冲击下,实际利率在长期有所上升,但并未达到控制通货膨胀的效果,实际利率偏低阻碍了货币政策效果的发挥;人民币升值对产出增长具有较大的负面影响,对通货膨胀具有负向）中击,但由于油价上涨的原因,人民币升值并没有降低通货膨胀水平。     

基于系统经济的我国渔业发展宏观表征指标(体系)初步研究

渔业发展思路的系统性分析是渔业发展战略研究的重要问题。我国渔业发展进入新阶段的特征鲜明,坚持以发展和改革的办法解决发展中问题,实现发展模式的创新,需要增强宏观形势判断能力和对产业发展的驾驭能力。本文基于系统经济原理提出我国渔业发展宏观表征指标(体系),并提出发展动力表征指标、发展质量表征指标、持续发展表征指标的基本框架,从而作为设计我国渔业发展宏观监控指标体系的一个参考路径。     

“以人为本”视角下的个人所得税法再完善探讨

我国个人所得税法的再完善,应充分体现“以人为本”,不仅要考虑到相同收入在不同地区生活以及同等收入在不同家庭结构的纳税人应享有同等的生活质量,而且还需重视劳动所得,在减轻工薪阶层中低收入者税收负担的同时,也应激发勤勉守法的工薪阶层高收入者的劳动积极性。对个人所得税法的再完善,应该主要集中在对混合所得税制模式的选择和广扣除、轻税率的税制设计方面,以期实现事实上的公平税负,充分体现人性关怀,为构建和谐社会发挥其应有的作用。     

The shale oil revolution and the global oil supply curve

We focus on the implications of the shale oil boom for the global supply of oil. In order to derive testable implications, we introduce a simple stylized model with two producers, one facing low production costs and one higher production costs but potentially lower adjustment costs, competing à la Stackelberg. We find that the supply function is flatter for the high cost producer and that the supply function for shale oil producers becomes more responsive to demand shocks when adjustment costs decline. On the empirical side, we apply an instrumental variable approach using estimates of demand-driven oil price changes derived from a standard structural VAR of the oil market. A main finding is that global oil supply is rather vertical, with a short-term elasticity around 0.05. A rolling sample reveals that the shale oil boom does not appear to have fundamentally changed the contours of global oil production, but there is evidence for the oil supply curve to become more vertical in Saudi Arabia and more price responsive in the United States.     

News Shocks,Business Cycles,and the Disinflation Puzzle

We argue that key findings of the empirical literature on the effects of news about future technology—including their tendency to generate negative comovement of macro-economic aggregates, and their puzzling disinflationary nature—are due to measurement errors in total factor productivity (TFP). In this paper, we estimate the macro-economic effects of news shocks in the United States using an agnostic identification approach that is robust to measurement errors. We find no evidence of negative comovement conditional on a news shock, and the disinflation puzzle essentially vanishes under our identification strategy. Our results also indicate that news shocks have become an important driver of business-cycle fluctuations in recent years.