货币时间价值在投资决策中的应用

货币时间价值的客观存在不仅在理论界得到了公认,而且其产生的作用时刻影响着人们的日常经济生活。不管是企业的项目投资,还是个人的理财投资,都不可忽视货币时间价值。在进行方案抉择的时候,要优先选用包含货币时间价值的动态指标(净现值、获利指数和内涵报酬率)进行评价,选择最优方案,做出科学的投资决策。企业和个人要牢固树立货币时间价值观念,利用它为企业和个人决策服务,促进企业和个人合理利用有限资金,创造更高的效益。     

渐进式还是突变式？城镇居民食品 消费结构转变规律研究

本文在总结国内外文献的基础上,利用一个嵌入时间路径的LA/AIDS模型,探索了城镇居民食品消费结构的转变规律。结果显示,城镇居民主要食品的消费结构发生了渐进式转变,其转变期为1994-1995年。从需求弹性值变化来看,肉类从奢侈品转变为必需品,发生了本质变化,其消费量逐年上升。粮食和禽蛋类一直是必需品,其弹性值变化不大,消费量逐年下降。而水产品仍是富于弹性的奢侈品,但其弹性值逐渐下降,并趋于必需品。     

商业银行利率风险控制策略分析

利率风险控制是利率风险管理的重要环节,也是识别、衡量利率风险工作的归结。按照是否涉及到资产负债表表内的项目,可将利率风险控制分为资产负债表内控制和资产负债表外控制。本文主要对资产负债表外控制策略进行分析,希望能为有效控制商业银行利率风险提供借鉴作用。     

范蠡的商业哲学思想探析

范蠡是春秋晚期著名政治家,曾在吴越争霸的历史舞台上扮演重要的角色,同时也因其成功的经商活动被后世尊称为"商圣"。范蠡特别强调对"时"的选择和把握,"待时而动"和"择时而退"是他从政、经商成功的重要基础。选择合适的经商地点和经营项目,在经商活动中常抱有回馈社会的心态,也是范蠡"商道"的重要内容。探求"上商近道"的哲学内涵及其在商业活动中的呈现,对中华传统商业文化的复兴与传承有一定的借鉴意义。     

科研人员的时间分配与生活满意度--性别的视角

在各种职业群体中,专业技术人员工作时间最长,作为其子群体的科研人员工作时间长、压力大是不争的事实,但目前学术界对科研人员时间分配状况与其生活满意度的关系还没有可靠的研究。本研究利用“科技工作者时间利用状况调查”数据,分析我国科研人员时间分配状况与生活满意度的关系,并对其中的性别差异做分析。研究发现,工作时间中科研时间所占的比例与满意度负相关,家务劳动时间过长或过短都负面影响满意度,通勤时间也负面影响满意度,睡眠时间越长满意度越高,休闲娱乐时间长短对满意度的影响不明显;男性科研人员和女性科研人员时间分配与满意度关系模式不同,科研时间占比、通勤时间对男性有影响,家务时间对女性有影响。     

Labor Income Taxation,Human Capital,and Growth: The Role of Childcare*

In this paper, we examine the effects of labor income taxation on growth in an overlapping generations model in which schooling and childcare play a role in the production of human capital. We compare such effects with those obtained in a model in which only schooling matters for skill formation. We show that the omission of childcare from the technology of skill formation can bias the results related to the impact of labor income taxation on growth.     

On the performance of the Chow-Lin procedure for quarterly interpolation of annual data: Some Monte-Carlo analysis

Most of the countries of the OECD offer quarterly estimates of their national growth or of their Gross National Product. Official Statistical Agencies in western countries have to deal with the problem of estimating Quarterly National Accounts series congruently with Annual National Accounts. In Spain, the Instituto Nacional de Estadística uses the Chow-Lin disaggregation method, which is based on information provided by a group of high-frequency related variables, to estimate the quarterly components of National Accounts from annual components. In this paper, we analyse the relative quality of the estimates obtained through the Chow-Lin procedure, under different sets of hypotheses.JEL Classification: C15, C43, M40We are grateful to Maria Amparo Ripoll for her assistance. The authors also wish to thank three anonymous referees and an editor for their constructive suggestions and comments. This research was partially made during the stay of the first author at the Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. It has been partially supported by the research project DGCYT PB98-1460.     

A modified logit model for time series with an application to the pricing behaviour of manufacturing firms in Australia

The modified logit model (Amemiya and Nold, 1975) is generalised to the case where the error term is autocorrelated. The asymptotic distribution (as n →∞ and T →∞) of a feasible GLS estimator of β is derived. Tests of linear restrictions on β and the significance of ρ are presented. The results of the applied work suggest that the factors which explain the pricing behaviour of manufacturing firms, as reported in the tendency survey conducted by the Australian Chamber of Commerce and Industry and the Westpac Banking Corporation, include historical inflation rates of up to 7 quarters and capacity utilisation. First version received: March 2001/Final version received: July 2002 RID="*" ID="*"  The first draft of this paper was written while the author was on study leave at the Department of Econometrics, University of Sydney, Australia.     

几何布朗运动市场中的最优变现策略研究

利用相对价格冲击函数的Box-Cox变换和存在比例交易费用的线性函数,研究了非瓦尔拉斯均衡金融市场上风险资产的价格变现策略,当资产价格变化服从几何布朗运动时,资产变现时间内生情形下投资者最优变现策略问题可以转化为具有随机跳出时间的随机最优控制,通过对带有广义狄利克雷边界条件的贝尔曼方程的粘性求解,可以实现最优变现策略。     

从个人决策向决策科学化转型——中国民营企业实现可持续发展必须跨越的台阶

21世纪是以数字技术、基因技术为基础,以信息革命和生物革命为标志的新经济时代。与时俱进,实现技术、产品、管理、组织、文化的创新,特别是重大决策的科学化,是企业获得持续发展的关键所在。不少中国民营企业至今对此认识不足,而迷信个人作用,搞个人决策,这正是造成其短命的重要原因之一。深入分析中国民营企业决策个人化的危害和根源,有利于实现从个人决策向决策科学化的转型。