Multiple method forecasts for discontinuous innovations

This paper argues for the development of more explicit forecasting methodologies that use the pragmatics of combining methods and the philosophical base of multiple perspectives. The increasingly common “wicked” problem of forecasting demand for discontinuous innovations (DI) at the concept testing stage of new product development is used to ground the discussion. We look to the interpretivist group-based inquiry methodologies in the management and information systems literature, and coupled this with discussions with forecasting managers, to provide evidence to support the adoption of this approach. Relativism is briefly critiqued and the accuracy of the combining methods forecasting literature reviewed. It appears that the managers interviewed could benefit from an explicit understanding of the multiple perspective approach, as they already appeared to have appreciated the need for a broader based approach than traditional forecasting techniques. It is therefore hoped that as a result of this paper, more managers involved with the “wicked” problem of innovative product forecasting will recognise the need to adopt a more explicit multiple perspective inquiry methodology in their efforts to combine forecasting methods.     

旅游景区游客数量调控技术的研究

一些热门旅游景区在旅游旺季往往人满为患,如何科学合理的调控游客数量是旅游景区非常棘手的一个难题。本文系统总结了国内外景区目前已经采用的各种游客数量调控技术,并从多个角度对它们进行分析和比较,最后对旅游景区如何合理使用这些调控技术提出建议。     

Exploring the experience value of museum visitors as a co-creation process

Museums’ visitors can play an active role both during and after the visit that will allow them to shape a significant experience. The present work explores this role of the visitor as co-creator of experiences. Prior knowledge and interest enable visitors to participate and interact during the visit, all of which basically allows them to build a more intense experience in those areas that require their involvement. It is these more active experiences, and only these, which drive the individual’s intention to continue participating actively after the visit, seeking information and revisiting the museum, following it on social networks and making recommendations on opinion pages.     

游人对乌兰察布城市公园植物景观 空间的偏好研究

以内蒙古乌兰察布市中心城区8个城市公园中的植 物景观空间为研究对象,使用行为观察法和行为地图法记录游 人的景观偏好与行为偏好,用相关性分析、方差分析研究植物 景观空间特征指标与游人偏好的关系,为提升游人在植物景观 空间的游憩体验、构建人性化城市公园提供参考。研究表明： 游人偏好水体与植物组合景观空间,且游人偏好与植物观赏特 性、季相变化、色彩构成呈显著正相关,与亲水性呈显著负相 关;游人喜欢在城市公园植物景观空间中欣赏美景和社交;游 人倾向于在野生植物种类少、可达性好的植物景观空间内进行 休闲娱乐活动,在气味芳香、硬质广场面积较大的植物景观空 间内进行体育健身活动,在郁闭度高、较封闭、离水边较远、 离出入口较近的植物景观空间内进行安静休憩活动。     

An assessment of ‘international best practice’ in visitor attraction management: does Scotland really lag behind?

This paper compares and contrasts selected management practices among visitor attractions in Scotland, Australia, Canada and New Zealand. The catalyst for the study was the growing perception that management practices among visitor attractions in Scotland are becoming increasingly outdated and that the sector needs to learn from ‘international best practice’ in this respect. A postal questionnaire was sent to all paid‐admission visitor attractions in the four countries. In total, 1022 visitor attractions replied, representing an overall response rate of 41%. Chi‐square analysis was then used to test various hypotheses relating to the uptake of these management practices. A key conclusion is that although management practices do vary significantly among the four countries, Scotland does not necessarily lag behind. Indeed, Scottish visitor attractions seem to lead the way in many respects. Meanwhile, the study finds no strong evidence to suggest that visitor attractions in the other three countries have indeed identified and are following a common ‘international best practice’. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

转变我国经济发展方式探析

转变经济发展方式是党中央在深刻总结我国改革开放29年来经济发展经验的基础上提出的科学发展战略。牢固树立科学发展观的指导思想,深刻领悟转变经济发展方式的内涵,对于推进社会主义经济持续、健康与和谐发展。夺取全面建设小康社会的新胜利,具有十分重要的意义。     

A visitor flow management process for touristified archaeological sites

In recent decades the number of visitors to archaeological sites has increased exponentially. This increase has generated both negative and positive impacts. This article proposes a Visitor Flow Management Process (VFMP) that aims to minimize the negative impacts and enhance the benefits visitor flows can have in touristified archaeological sites. Although several proposals for visitor management frameworks exist for natural protected areas, for archaeological sites there are only isolated strategies and actions. Following a review of the literature on the visitor impacts and visitor management strategies implemented in 11 touristified archaeological sites around the world, 96 visitor management measures were identified, classified and synthesized into a three stage-process: (1) Restrict the number of visitors; (2) Redistribute visitor flows in time and space and (3) Interpret the archaeological site considering the mass influx of visitors. VFMP is a useful tool for heritage site managers dealing with mass tourism, whose implementation can contribute to reducing damage to heritage and enhancing the quality of the visitor experience.     

Monitoring visitors to natural areas in wintertime: issues in counter accuracy

The sustainable management of vulnerable natural areas requires accurate measurement of visitor flows, especially in mountain and protected areas. Pyroelectric sensors that detect the heat radiation emitted by human bodies are now commonly used in many regions, including Scandinavia and the UK, to count pedestrian traffic in both urban and natural areas. We used four different tests to investigate pyroelectric counters’ accuracy in mountain winter conditions. Air temperature, distance to sensor, visitor clothing and visitor volume were all found to affect counter error rates. For tests within moderate winter temperatures (between 0°C and ?18°C) counters reported within manufacturer's claimed accuracy at 5% for 2 m range, but for ?21°C and below visitor numbers were over reported by 10.9%. Counter accuracy was generally unaffected by visitor clothing within 2 m of the sensor, but at a 4 m distance counters frequently failed to detect individuals in insulating down jackets more than fleece jackets. Counter error rates were slightly higher in outdoor than indoor tests, but still accurate within 5%. Error rates increased with increasing visitor traffic. The findings provide methodological implications for researchers and managers using automated visitor counters to estimate wintertime visitor use in mountain areas.     

基于游客体验分析的山体公园服务设施 研究——以贵阳市黔灵山公园为例

公园服务设施直接影响着游人的游憩体验质量,是 公园规划设计和建设的关键因素。以贵阳市黔灵山公园为研究 对象,在实地体验观察和访谈问卷调查的基础上,采用验证性 因子分析方法,探讨公园服务设施对游人在公园内游憩休闲使 用的重要度,以及游人对公园服务设施使用后的满意度。结果 表明：1)公园服务设施的8个类别维度对游客影响的重要度从 大到小依次为安全设施>卫生设施>信息设施>管理服务设施> 交通设施>休憩设施>科普宣教设施>商业设施;2)游客对公园 服务设施使用后满意度从大到小依次为安全设施>信息设施> 商业设施>交通设施>科普宣教设施>管理服务设施>休憩设施> 卫生设施。各维度在观测上的数值差异反映了游客在公园内进 行游玩时更注重体验设施的存在度和使用感。