论本币升值对国内物价的影响路径

本币升值可通过实体经济、虚拟经济以及货币政策三个途径影响一国的国内价格;本币升值通过国内物价影响经济稳定存在一个正反馈机制;从短期来看,人民币升值不仅不能抑制国内物价上涨,还可能推动国内物价的上涨。     

金融危机以来我国沿海港口货物吞吐量影响因素研究——兼论我国经济由外需拉动向内需驱动转型的一个证据

通过建立基于贸易引力模型的我国沿海港口货物吞吐量影响因素的VAR模型,分别考察了交通运输业固定投资、人民币汇率、世界经济状况和国内经济状况对我国沿海港口货物吞吐量的影响,并以金融危机以来的数据作为样本对该模型进行了实证检验。由脉冲响应和方差分解分析发现:世界经济发展状况对我国沿海港口货物吞吐量的影响最大,且世界经济的复苏将显著提高沿海港口货物吞吐量;交通运输业固定投资在经过一个滞后期后,也会对沿海港口货物吞吐量起到积极的作用;人民币汇率对我国沿海港口货物吞吐量的影响不可忽略,且汇率上升(即本币贬值)将提高沿海港口货物吞吐量;而国内经济发展状况则与我国沿海港口货物吞吐量之间并不存在显著的确定关系,这或表明我国经济的发展方式正由外需拉动向内需驱动转型。     

产业升级中的人力资源支撑体系研究——以宁波为例

本文以区域产业结构理论与人力资源理论为研究依据,分析宁波产业升级与人力资源优化的相互关系,结合宁波金田公司产业升级中的人力资源发展启示,构建宁波产业升级中的人力资源支撑体系。     

Drivers and barriers to cross-border e-commerce: Evidence from Spanish individual behavior

This paper explores the determinants of the individual's decision to perform cross-border e-commerce (CBeC). The European Union (EU) is especially interested in the promotion of CBeC because it is an important tool in its strategy to achieve the Digital Single Market in Europe. In this paper official data is used from a representative survey of 16,209 individuals on ICT usage by households and individuals that was carried out in Spain by the National Institute of Statistics (INE) for the year 2016. Using a standard neoclassical utility maximization framework, and logistic regression techniques, the results show that being a male is positively related to the probability of practicing CBeC. Education is positively and significantly related to the probability of being involved in CBeC with EU countries. Computer and Internet Skills are significant and positive factors in explaining CBeC (either with EU countries or with the rest of the world). The variable “how often the consumer sees other customer reviews before buying online”, has a positive effect. Foreign nationality also increases the likelihood of using CBeC. To promote CBeC in Spain measures towards developing digital skills, Internet trust and use of online information reviews of goods and services are discussed.     

农业保险发展存在的问题及对策建议

农业保险作为扶持农业发展的重要政策工具,是分散农业风险、减轻农户和国家负担不可或缺的风险管理手段。广西12市农业保险业务取得快速发展,但受自然灾害高风险性、财政支持力度不足、缺乏统一领导协调机构、险种覆盖面窄、承保率偏低等多因素影响,导致赔付率过高,承保亏损严重,需要进一步完善农业保险发展的配套措施。     

Combining wavelet decomposition with machine learning to forecast gold returns

This paper combines the discrete wavelet transform with support vector regression for forecasting gold-price dynamics. The advantages of this approach are investigated using a relatively small set of economic and financial predictors. I measure model performance by differentiating between a statistically-motivated out-of-sample forecasting exercise and an economically-motivated trading strategy. Disentangling the predictors with respect to their time and frequency domains leads to improved forecasting performance. The results are robust compared to alternative forecasting approaches. My findings on the relative importances of such wavelet decompositions suggest that the influences of short-term and long-term trends are not stable over the full evaluation period.     

The take-up of business support by minority ethnic enterprises: The experience of South Asian businesses in England

This research contributes to a greater understanding of minority ethnic business (MEB) needs and practices and helps identify the support needs of minority ethnic firms in relation to existing support provision. The aims are, therefore, to examine the take-up of support by minority ethnic enterprises focusing mainly on the South Asian community with some representation from the African-Caribbean and Korean communities. Fifty minority ethnic businesses across South West London were contacted and semi-structured interviews took place with the owner/owner managers. The findings suggest that policy makers need to appreciate the diversity of MEBs and policies aimed at these businesses should reflect that diversity.     

Policies to support ethnic minority enterprise: the English experience

Using Global Entrepreneurship Monitor data for 29 countries this study investigates the (differential) impact of several factors on female and male entrepreneurship at the country level. These factors are derived from three streams of literature, including that on entrepreneurship in general, on female labour force participation and on female entrepreneurship. The paper deals with the methodological aspects of investigating (female) entrepreneurship by distinguishing between two measures of female entrepreneurship: the number of female entrepreneurs and the share of women in the total number of entrepreneurs. The first measure is used to investigate whether variables have an impact on entrepreneurship in general (influencing both the number of female and male entrepreneurs). The second measure is used to investigate whether factors have a differential relative impact on female and male entrepreneurship, i.e. whether they influence the diversity or gender composition of entrepreneurship. Findings indicate that – by and large – female and male entrepreneurial activity rates are influenced by the same factors and in the same direction. However, for some factors (e.g. unemployment, life satisfaction) we find a differential impact on female and male entrepreneurship. The present study also shows that the factors influencing the number of female entrepreneurs may be different from those influencing the share of female entrepreneurs. In this light it is important that governments are aware of what they want to accomplish (i.e. do they want to stimulate the number of female entrepreneurs or the gender composition of entrepreneurship) to be able to select appropriate policy measures.     

A model for the influence of social interaction and social support on female expatriates' cross-cultural adjustment

This paper offers a model to describe the way in which female expatriates develop relationships and utilize those relationships to become cross-culturally adjusted. This model includes three predictive components affecting cross-cultural adjustment. The first includes the factors affecting whether a woman is able to form relationships on the expatriate assignment. These antecedents can include the female expatriate's personality, the cultural norms towards women, her language skills and the availability of possible opportunities for interaction. The second component includes the various sources of social interaction and social support (e.g. family members, and host national colleagues). The third component describes the nature of a female expatriate's social interaction and social support (e.g. emotional, informational and instrumental). Practical considerations for multinational organizations sending female expatriates are offered.     

基于Agent的物流配送决策支持系统研究

物流配送是一个涉及多种影响因素的综合性复杂问题。本文探讨了基于Agent(智能体技术)的物流配送决策支持系统设计，在该系统中的智能体模型中引入学习机制，初步建立了一个具有专家系统特点、可以不断进化的物流配送决策支持系统。