Fundamental disagreement

We document a novel set of facts about disagreement among professional forecasters: (1) forecasters disagree at all horizons, including the long run; (2) the term structure of disagreement is downward sloping for real output growth, relatively flat for inflation, and upward sloping for the federal funds rate; (3) disagreement is time varying at all horizons. We propose a generalized model of imperfect information that can jointly explain these facts. We further use the term structure of disagreement to show that the monetary policy rule perceived by professional forecasters features a high degree of interest-rate smoothing and time variation in the intercept.     

Innovation performance across Europe

The innovation performance of firms is primarily determined by their own innovative activities and the interaction with their innovation-related environment. This environment typically differs among countries. We assess empirically these differences on firms' innovation performance. To that end we first estimate the relationship between an aggregate innovation input measure and an aggregate innovation output measure, thereby explicitly controlling for structural differences between countries. We then consider the extent to which firms located in a particular country perform better or worse than this estimated benchmark performance. The analysis is based on a panel dataset that we have constructed from Eurostat's first and second Community Innovation Survey. In order to control for possible data contamination we employ an outlier-robust estimator. It appears that among the fourteen countries considered Italy, Germany and Ireland offer an environment that facilitates most the transformation of innovation-related inputs into commercial outputs while the environment in Denmark is the least facilitating.     

户主受教育程度对家庭风险性金融资产选择的影响研究

利用中国家庭金融调查数据（CHFS）,通过Probit和Tobit模型解释户主受教育程度对风险性金融资产选择的影响,并对内在传导机制进行中介效应、调节效应分析。结果显示：户主的受教育水平对风险性金融资产的参与度和持有比例有积极影响,地区、城乡间影响差异明显,风险态度和家庭收入对户主受教育程度影响金融资产选择存在中介和调节效应。研究结论对进一步优化家庭金融资产配置有一定启示意义。     

Lies,damned lies and statistics: the accuracy of survey responses

That survey research is error prone is not a new idea and different varieties of non-sampling error have been investigated in the literature as well as consideration being given in many statistics textbooks to the issue of sampling error. The paper here considers research upon corporate environmental reporting. It compares information provided by corporate environmental reports with information that survey respondents claim their organization’s environmental report contains. This enables the accuracy of the claims to be assessed. Consideration is given to two different industries the Water industry and the Energy industry. Errors due to inaccurate reporting by survey respondents are shown to be relatively infrequent and respondents appear just about as likely to claim they report information that they do not, in fact, report as to fail to indicate that they report information that is, in fact, actually reported.     

中国国内地方保护问题的调查与分析

本文通过对地方保护主义调查问卷的分析 ,回答了当前国内地方保护的状况、政府致力于减弱地方保护的政策和努力是否有效、现阶段地方保护的方法和手段所呈现的特征以及今后政策的着力点等问题。同时 ,在重点行业管理、劳动力流动、司法公正、财税制度等方面提出了削减地区间贸易和要素流动壁垒、抑制地方保护行为的政策建议。     

调查研究法的运用问题评析——揭示它在我国会计研究中的运用现状

首先在考察样本代表性与调查质量之间关系的基础上建立一个理论评价框架,然后运用该框架对我国1988～2007年会计研究中调查研究法的运用情况进行实证分析.结果发现,调查法在我国的运用与西方研究争有关的理论的要求相比,在抽样方式的选择、样本规模、无回应分析等方面均还存在着较大的差距.     

A prospective analysis of labour market status and self-rated health in the UK and Russia

Comparing prospective data from the UK and Russia, this paper analyzes whether the association of labour market status, and particularly unemployment, with subsequent health varies by the level of state protection provided to the unemployed. While the UK's unemployment welfare regime is classified as providing minimal protection, the Russian regime is sub-protective. Employing Cox duration analysis upon data from the Russian Longitudinal Monitoring Survey and the British Household Panel Survey for the period 2000–2007, this study finds that labour market status and economic circumstances independently predicted individual-level declines in self-rated health and, contrary to expectations, the associations of unemployment with health decline were similarly sized in the two countries.     

患者满意度调查对医院管理的作用

目的通过住院患者对医护人员服务态度、医疗护理质量、住院环境、是否存在滥收费现象及心理指导的满意度调查,研究患者满意度调查对医院管理的作用。方法对2009年1～2月与11～12月接受满意度调查的住院患者进行回顾性分析。结果患者满意度调查开展前后,实验组医护人员操作、医护人员服务态度、病区环境、是否存在滥收费及心理指导等方面内容评分均高于对照组,两组比较差异有统计学意义(P<0.05);且实验组投诉率较低。结论患者满意度调查可以提高患者对医院的满意度,降低投诉率,及时发现工作中存在的问题。医院应注意提高医护人员的操作及服务态度,杜绝滥收费现象,并定期对患者进行心理指导,加强患者对医院的信任,利于医院的管理。     

The UK technology foresight programme: An assessment of expert estimates

Since the early 1990s, ‘Technology Foresight’ exercises with special emphasis on the use of Delphi surveys have played an important role in science and technology (S + T) policy across Europe in an effort to focus resource allocation. Yet, none of the estimates made in the European Delphi surveys have been formally assessed in retrospect, while this process has been incorporated into the Japanese surveys since 1996. Taking the UK Technology Foresight Programme, this research sets out to assess the estimates of three of the fifteen panel Delphi surveys. Whilst on average 2/3 of Delphi statements were predicted to be realised by 2004, it will be shown that only a fraction of these statements had been realised by 2006. Based on the evidence collected from the published panel reports, the ‘Hindsight on Foresight’ survey conducted by OST in 1995 and interviews with panel members, it will be argued that the overwhelming majority of estimates were overly optimistic. While optimism and strategic gaming of experts is the most convincing explanation for these results, process factors were also explored, including the quality of expert panels used, the Delphi statements and the respondents of the Delphi questionnaire. It is argued that at least the issue of short-range optimism and strategic gaming of experts should be addressed in future Delphi exercises, as decision makers relying on expert advice cannot deal with this issue alone.