Statistics for Studies of Human Welfare

Developments in the recent past have substantially increased our ability to measure, compute, and communicate. We take the view that a corresponding improved understanding of processes in the life sciences will come about only through more intensive studies of properties of statistical methods and algorithms and transparent, open source computing environments.     

China＇s Social Security： Case Studies of the Interest Groups and Policy Monopoly

This section introduces an asymmetric information model to analyze the interest groups and policy monopoly in social security management, mainly focusing on the relation between the interest groups in the social security products market and the social security government institutions at the central level, namely the major social security policy makers.     

Pre-Harvest Price Expectations for Corn: The Information Content of USDA Reports and New Crop Futures

This article examines the puzzle of why futures prices continue to react to USDA crop reports despite the fact that reports appear to be no longer "newsworthy," that is, provide no better production estimates than private forecasts. The information value of reports is measured in terms of their influence on rational agents' harvest-time corn price expectations, which are uncovered using a Hamilton-type modeling approach. Results show that reports are still "newsworthy," as they would contribute to agents' price expectations if released a day early. Thus futures price reactions, which closely reflect price expectations, are rational and consistent with efficient markets hypothesis.     

人力资本测算及其应用研究综述

从人力资本测算与相关理论、人力资本测算方法与相关应用两个方面的联系对人力资本测算及其应用研究进行总结，并展望未来可能的应用研究发展。人力资本测算和应用虽然得到前所未有的重视，大量的研究成果涌现，但远未达到成熟阶段，许多研究还有待深入和进一步的发展，更多的应用领域有待开发和拓展。     

论墨家思想的要指“强本节用”

司马谈在《论六家要指》中对先秦至汉初诸子思想进行了一次大的总结与评价，指出了各家要指所在，将墨家思想的要指总结为“强本节用”。司马谈对墨家思想及要指的评判，不仅仅是从学术角度出发，更重要的是从治国角度出发而作出的评定。     

International interest rates and US monetary policy announcements: Evidence from Hong Kong and Singapore

This paper investigates the responses of market interest rates to US monetary policy announcements for the US and two emerging economies, Hong Kong and Singapore which are similar on many respects but have experienced opposite exchange rate regimes in the last twenty years. Our results, based on market expectations extracted from federal fund futures rates, document that FOMC announcements significantly affect the term structure of interest rate in the US and both Asian countries. Further, international interest rate differentials around FOMC meeting dates tend to be negative for short maturities with the impact gradually dissipating as bond maturity increases. Finally, for the case of Singapore, we find that domestic interest rates react to both external and domestic monetary policy announcements with a magnitude that is larger over the full bond maturity spectrum for domestic announcements. These results are robust to time-varying futures risk premia and alternative measures of interest rates expectations.     

Forecasting Stock Index Futures Price Volatility: Linear vs. Nonlinear Models

The study examines the relative ability of various models to forecast daily stock index futures volatility. The forecasting models that are employed range from naïve models to the relatively complex ARCH-class models. It is found that among linear models of stock index futures volatility, the autoregressive model ranks first using the RMSE and MAPE criteria. We also examine three nonlinear models. These models are GARCH-M, EGARCH, and ESTAR. We find that nonlinear GARCH models dominate linear models utilizing the RMSE and the MAPE error statistics and EGARCH appears to be the best model for forecasting stock index futures price volatility.     

Disciplining: A question of ethics?

The importance of evaluating a discipline system from an ethical perspective is considered. Disciplinary practices in contemporary organizations are frequently characterized by managers having to choose from among alternative courses of corrective action. Since the selected alternative may have serious consequences for the individuals involved, its rightness or wrongness is of concern. The pattern of these choices reflects the overall disciplinary practice of the organization, and is an issue that warrants attention from an ethical perspective. Basic schools of thought that influence contemporary discipline practices are discussed and suggestions are made for conducting an evaluation of the ethical nature of a discipline system.     

FDI location choice of Chinese multinationals in East and Southeast Asia: Traditional economic factors and institutional perspective

This paper investigates the factors determining foreign direct investment (FDI) location choices of Chinese multinational firms. We developed a conceptual framework that synthesizes traditional economic factors and institutional perspective. Then several hypotheses were developed in line with the framework and empirically tested using panel data of Chinese outward FDI to eight economies in East and Southeast Asia across a time period of thirteen years. Our findings suggest that institutional factors demonstrate a higher level of significance, complexity and diversity in determining FDI location choice in comparison with economic factors, while both types of factors influence the FDI location choice of Chinese multinational firms. We also found that the FDI location choices of Chinese firms have a dynamic nature, as statistical evidence indicates a heterogeneous response of Chinese FDI towards different economic groups and during different time periods.     

对我国成人教育改革问题的研究与探索

我国成人教育面对知识经济的冲击,表现出创新特色不突出、教学形式与内容落后等问题。为适应知识经济创新,实现学习终身化、知识教育化的要求,必须从总体上对我国成人教育进行改革。