Population Aging and the Possibility of a Middle-Income Trap in Asia

We present three conditions for a demography-driven middle-income trap and show that many economies in East, South, and Southeast Asia satisfy all of them. The conditions involve (1) the support ratio of workers to consumers has an impact on economic growth, (2) economic development accompanies more investment in human capital and lower fertility due to the quantity–quality trade-off, and (3) a current low level of fertility corresponds to very low support ratios for keeping up with frontier economies in the long run. Panel analysis for 178 countries shows that (1) and (2) are satisfied for Asia with higher elasticity than others. As for (3), we set up a dynamic model for simulations, showing that approximately two-third of Asia’s developing countries have an unsustainable level of support ratios, implying possibility of a middle-income trap due to future demographic headwinds.     

国际外包陷阱产生机理及其跨越研究

本文以全球价值链分工体系下发展中国家承接国际外包实践为背景,从承包企业所面临的风险角度审视国际外包,认为承包活动将伴随着陷阱,并提出了分析国际外包陷阱的一个初步理论框架。国际外包陷阱描述了承包企业陷入长期低水平接包而难以自拔的一种状态,其在理论溯源、概念假设、形成机制及产生效应等方面区别于比较优势陷阱。承包企业对发包企业技术上的严重依赖和对低劳动力素质的过度依赖是前者极易落入国际外包陷阱的主要原因,落入国际外包陷阱的后果则是从长期看承包企业人力资本积累缓慢、缺乏技术创新能力积累导致与发包企业间技术差距和边际生产率差距同时不断扩大。基于以上理论框架,本文构建了国际外包陷阱产生机理的数理模型,阐明了承包企业内部技术积累及外部需求推动两大跨越国际外包陷阱的途径,归纳了国际外包陷阱跨越的"单脚"、"双脚"及"跳跃型"三种模式,并对承包企业发展战略和发展中国家相关产业政策制定提出了建议。     

规模经济、产品差异化与中国入境旅游空间结构的变动

本文研究了1986年至2005年中国入境旅游空间结构的变动情况,并对两类入境旅游集中的典型地区的旅游发展路径进行了剖析.研究认为,中国入境旅游在总体趋于分散的背景下,也存在着两个明显的集聚现象.第一,长期以来入境旅游在传统旅游热点地区高度集聚;第二,云南成长为新的集聚中心.对于前者的解释是,良好的旅游基础设施和接待设施、较高的知名度使传统旅游热点地区在改革开放之初就进入了一个动态的、自我发展的良性循环.对于后者的解释是,极具地方特色的差异化旅游产品的开发与营销以及政府主导下的大规模的旅游基础设施建设使云南旅游成功地实现了从"低水平陷阱"向"自我发展的良性循环"的"惊人一跃".     

Fiscal Policy in a Currency Union at the Zero Lower Bound

This paper constructs a two‐country core–periphery New Keynesian model of a currency union to address the interaction between the objectives of regionally directed fiscal policy constrained by a single currency and the aggregate use of fiscal policy in face of the zero lower bound (ZLB) on policy interest rates. We identify an optimal path of aggregate and relative fiscal policy responses to a negative region‐specific demand shock. Our results show that (i) in a monetary union, the optimal policy response to an asymmetric reduction in demand concentrated in the periphery always entails a relative shift of fiscal expenditure toward the worse‐affected regions, (ii) though no aggregate fiscal response is required outside the ZLB, and (iii) optimal union‐wide fiscal policy is expansionary at the ZLB. Therefore, optimal policy always entails an expansion in the periphery at the ZLB, but the optimal fiscal response in the core regions can be either expansionary or contractionary depending on the parameters of the model. However, (iv) fiscal expansion in the core is warranted if the periphery cannot implement an expansion due to constraints on public spending.     

经济增长中的政府功效和区域贫困化问题研究——基于中国1038个县（县级市）统计数据的实证分析

本文使用2005年中国1038个县(县级市)统计数据,通过建立柯布.道格拉斯生产函数,对模型进行了邹至庄检验。发现:影响县域经济增长的主要因素是固定资产投资,同时模型的结构是不稳定的,结构变化的拐点在人均GDP为11617元。也是说,在经济发展过程中,政府的财政支出在经济水平较低的县,对经济增长的推动作用是不显著的。贫困陷阱地区的经济起飞存在一个明显的阈值,政府的财政推力只有超过这个阈值,才能发挥应有的作用。     

Understanding Benign Liquidity Traps: The Case of Japan

Japan has been in a benign liquidity trap since the 1990s. In a benign liquidity trap, interest rates approach zero and monetary policy is ineffective but output and employment perform decently. Such a pattern contradicts traditional macro theories. This paper introduces a monetary general equilibrium model that is compatible with Japan's performance and resolves puzzles associated with liquidity traps. Possible conclusions for Anglo‐Saxon countries and eurozone members are also discussed.     

Scarcity of safe assets,inflation, and the policy trap

A goal of this paper is to make sense of the seemingly puzzling behavior of interest rates and inflation – and the role of central banks in that behavior – during and after the Great Recession, particularly in the United States. To this end, we construct a model in which government debt plays a key role in exchange, and can bear a liquidity premium. If asset market constraints bind, then there need not be deflation under an indefinite zero interest rate policy (ZIRP). Further, ZIRP may not be optimal under these circumstances. A Taylor-rule central banker could be subject to a ZIRP trap and persistently undershoot target inflation. As well, a liquidity premium on government debt creates additional Taylor rule perils, because of a persistently low real interest rate. We make a case that this is the key policy predicament currently faced by many central banks in the world.     

以要素禀赋结构升级促进产业链延伸：走出“比较优势陷阱”

从要素禀赋结构、产业结构及贸易结构三者之间的关系出发,看出要素禀赋结构升级不但决定着产业结构升级和贸易结构升级,而且能促进产业链延伸,进而对走出＂比较优势陷阱＂起着重大的作用。     

居民货币需求的“结构性流动陷阱”及其对我国物价变动影响之研究

由于当前经济改革中的一些结构性问题使我国居民存在对货币需求的"结构性流动陷阱"."结构性流动陷阱"是我国近年来城乡居民储蓄存款高速增长的根本原因,也是对我国自1997年以来物价变动产生重要影响的一个基本因素.文章首先对当前转型期我国存在的居民货币需求"结构性流动陷阱"形成原因进行分析,其次,依据这个观点对我国近年来出现的通货膨胀和通货紧缩的基本原因和特点进行深入的分析和系统的研究,并就我国未来短期内物价走势进行分析和预测.