Measuring Potential Output for the South African Economy: Embedding Information About the Financial Cycle

Borio et al. show that information embedded in the financial cycle can serve to improve measures of potential output and output gaps. They show that incorporating information on the financial cycle yields measures of potential output and output gaps for the United States, United Kingdom and Spain that are estimated more precisely and are more robust in real time. With its well‐developed financial markets and relatively open capital markets, the South African economy is potentially susceptible to the build‐up of the sort of financial imbalances that characterised the recent financial crisis. Using the framework developed in Borio et al., a finance‐neutral measure of the output gap is estimated for South Africa. The traditional Hodrick–Prescott filter is extended to incorporate information on credit and property prices. Including financial cycle proxies result in output gaps that are estimated more precisely and are more robust to data revisions and the arrival of new data points (i.e. estimated output gaps are more robust in real time), while also reflecting the impact of financial variables on economic activity. As such, the estimated finance‐neutral output gap seems to represent a more appropriate measure on which to base monetary policy decisions.     

Do actively managed mutual funds exploit stock market mispricing?

Constructing a proxy for mispricing with 15 well-known stock market anomalies, we examine whether actively managed mutual funds exploit mispricing. We find that, in the aggregate, mutual funds overweight overvalued stocks and underweight undervalued stocks relative to a passive benchmark, and this tendency is explained by the ill-motivated trades of agency-prone fund managers. In addition, we find that mutual funds with the highest weights in undervalued stocks outperform those with the highest weights in overvalued stocks by an annualized three-factor alpha of 2.12% (t = 2.38), implying that slanting portfolios based on our proxy helps mutual funds improve performance.     

Malthus in Sweden

This paper presents some new and unique cross‐county data from 19th‐century Sweden over birth, death, and marriage rates, grain prices, and harvests. Local grain prices correlate negatively with local harvests, suggesting imperfectly integrated food markets. The so‐called positive and preventive checks are also present: good local harvests are associated with high birth and marriage rates, and low death rates. We also find that the fertility and marriage effects from changes in prices – but not harvests – are greater in counties that rely more on manufacturing, consistent with an open‐economy model of fertility choice, where agents earn income from both agriculture and manufacturing.     

Civil Conflict,Democratization, and Growth: Violent Democratization as Critical Juncture

In this paper, we provide an empirical investigation of the interaction between violent conflicts, democratization, and growth in the “third wave” of democratization. The effect of democratization is weakened when taking into account the incidence of civil conflict. The results show that the growth effect of democratization is heterogeneous and depends on the democratization scenario. Peaceful transitions to democracy have a significant positive effect on growth that is even larger than reported previously in the literature, whereas violent transitions have no, or even negative, growth effects.     

Misthinking Globalisation: Twentieth-Century Paradigms and Twenty First-Century Challenges

Accounts of globalisation fail to distinguish the current globalisation from that which followed the industrial revolution. Before the industrial revolution most economic activity was local, with production and consumption bundled in the close geographic proximity. In the first globalisation, production and consumption unbundled on an unprecedented global scale as natural and man-made trade costs fell. In the second unbundling the production process itself is being unbundled globally, with traditional ‘made in’ labels losing meaning as supply chains become more and more complex.     

Regional effects of export tax rebate on exporting firms: Evidence from China

This paper extends a model from 2003 to separate the direct and indirect impact of an export tax rebate on the intensive margin of firm‐level export sales at the subnational level. The direct impact of the rebate is associated with a reduction of an exporting firm's variable costs, while the indirect impact manifests itself through higher regional wages as a result of increased demand for local labor. First, the empirical results imply that a 1 percent rise in the export tax rebate rate increases the export sales among continuing exporters by 0.2 percent through the direct channel. Second, through the indirect channel, a 1 percent difference in the regional rebate causes a 0.02 percent difference in exporters' sales growth. Both effects are statistically significant, and are consistent with the model's predictions.     

Family employees and absenteeism

Work effort varies greatly across employees, as evidenced by substantial differences in absence rates. Moreover, absenteeism causes sizeable output losses. Using data from the European Community Household Panel (ECHP), this paper investigates absence behaviour of family employees, i.e. workers who are employed in enterprises owned by a relative. Our estimates indicate that being a family employee instead of a regular employee in the private sector significantly reduces both the probability and duration of absence to a substantial degree.     

The Role of Economic Shocks on Health: Evidence from German Reunification

Sudden economic shocks impact the everyday lives of people from one day to the next. A number of studies have examined the association between economic fluctuations and health; however, no consensus on the nature of this relationship has been established. By exploiting the dramatic economic fluctuations following the German Reunification of 1990, which included a sudden change from a socialist to a capitalist system in East Germany, this study examines the association between broad negative economic shocks and health. The article finds that increases in state unemployment rates are associated with large and statistically significant declines in health outcomes. Estimates are stronger for people who became unemployed shortly after reunification, for low‐income individuals, and for East Germans, a group confronted with larger economic fluctuations. When examining potential mechanisms that could explain the observed health deteriorations, the study finds significant reductions in exercise frequency and increases in economic uncertainty and overall stress.     

Picking “Lemons” or Picking “Cherries”? Domestic and Foreign Acquisitions in Norwegian Manufacturing*

We compare the performance in employment, wages and productivity for domestic plants acquired by new domestic and foreign owners. Prospective foreign owners pick large, high‐wage, high‐productivity plants, while new domestic owners choose average performers of above‐average size. Employment, labour productivity, and total factor productivity decline in domestic acquisition targets before acquisitions; only wages recover afterwards. Employment, wages and labour productivity increase after foreign acquisitions. The sample selection introduced by long‐term comparisons and a focus on unique events introduces a downward bias into the results for domestic acquisitions and an upward bias for the foreign acquisitions.     

结构性减税政策对就业水平的影响研究

本文结合规范分析和实证分析,旨在研究结构性减税对我国就业水平的影响方式与程度,并提出结构性减税过程中如何稳定、提高社会就业水平的相关建议。结构性减税是＂有增有减＂的税制顶层设计,营业税改增值税、间接税改直接税、资源税改革等将通过影响企业盈利能力对就业产生传导作用。政策牵涉税收构成的调整,将改变不同类型经营实体的盈利能力和市场竞争力,改变劳动力市场的需求结构。要辅之以人才培养及导向政策,鼓励劳动力集中到减税力度较大的服务业中去,集中到中小企业中去,才能释放税改政策的就业红利。