Government industrial policy for a healthy world economy

The Japanese concept of “industrial policy” is the subject of this presentation. The central role of the Ministry of International Trade and Industry in the formulation of industrial policy for Japan over the past 35 years is reviewed. Several strategic phases are identified: 1945–1952, reconstruction of the economy; 1952–1960, comparative advantage strategy in capital-intensive industries; 1960–1973, transition to an open economy; 1973 to present, positive support policy for promising industries, e.g., subsidies for high-tech sectors and adjustive policy for declining industries (e.g., disposing of excess capacity in the textile sector). The advantages of National industrial policies for the world economy are indicated.     

The Commons with Capital Markets

We explore a dynamic commons problem and assess the welfare consequences of access to capital markets. The commons has a high intrinsic rate of return but its fruits cannot be secured by individual agents. Capital market access allows resources to be held securely and intertemporally transferred, but at a lower rate of return. In a two period model, we completely characterise symmetric consumption and extraction behaviour in four environments: under a strategic and a competitive equilibrium concept, and with and without market access. Strategic equilibria dominate competitive ones: while agents disagree over how to divide the resource, all would prefer it to be larger; the strategic concept allows them to anticipate returns to their conservation. As the number of agents becomes infinite, the strategic outcome converges to the competitive; as the number of agents falls to one, it converges to the planner’s. Market access has a positive effect on welfare owing to its consumption and extraction smoothing properties and a negative effect owing to its creation of an outside option to the commons, encouraging its depletion. A sufficient condition for autarky to dominate market access for some levels of communal endowment is that the world market discount factor exceed the subjective discount factor. Multiple equilibria may arise: these result from market access, not the equilibrium concept. The authors thank Ralph Bailey, Siddhartha Bandyopadhyay, Matthew Cole, Carl Devore, Felix Kubler, Chirantan Ganguly, Martin Jensen, Indrajit Ray, Celine Rochon, Dave Rusin, participants at the Royal Economic Society 2005 and an anonymous referee for valuable comments. They are grateful for funding under the ESRC’s World Economy and Finance programme (RES-156-25-0022).     

The International Monetary Fund’s interventions in food and agriculture: An analysis of loans and conditions

The mandate and competence of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) does not cover food and agriculture policies. While there is anecdotal evidence that the IMF engages in these policies regardless, the state-of-the-art lacks a systematic empirical foundation to identify the extent of its mission creep into these sectors. Based on a combination of machine and human coding, we present a comprehensive database on the IMF’s policy interventions in food and agriculture. Using new data on ‘conditionalities’—policies that governments must implement to access IMF credit—we assess to what extent the IMF has targeted these sectors for the period 1980 to 2014. Our analysis evaluates the agricultural content and ideological orientation of conditions according to whether they promote a developmental state, a night-watchman state, or neither. We find about 2% of all IMF conditions (1105 of 58,406) directly target food and agriculture issues. These are present in 43% of all IMF programs (332 of 781); and affect 100 countries (of the 131 countries that have had an IMF agreement). In addition, our analysis reveals that 59.2% of these conditions embody policy measures in line with night-watchman state policy preferences, 40.1% are model-neutral, and 0.7% developmental. Within the model-neutral category, 23.9% are conditions oriented towards building state capacity; 2.7% have a poverty reduction content; and 2.9% contain pro-environment policies. The IMF’s primary reason for targeting food and agriculture is to enforce fiscal discipline by removing subsidies, yet our analysis identifies that only 8% of these policies abolish subsidies. A more consistent explanation of the IMF’s interest in food and agriculture is its broader mission creep into development policy, and its deep-rooted pro-market ideology.     

积极应对后WTO时代绿色壁垒对我国农产品出口的影响

加入世贸组织以来,绿色壁垒逐步取代了关税和配额,成为我国农产品出口面临的最大障碍。面对复杂苛刻的技术法规、标准和质量认证制度,要迅速熟悉和掌握WTO的“绿色”规则、应承担的义务和赋予成员的有关权利,加快制定有关法律法规和技术标准,确定与国际接轨的我国产品标准体系。政府和企业要采取多种措施积极应对并最终跨过后WTO时代的新贸易壁垒。     

A dynamic industrial product model

This article reports on the development of a marketing model for industrial products to aid marketing managers in developing marketing programs on a quarterly and yearly basis. The system incorporates a market response model which relies heavily on the involvement of managers in providing inputs. The model was parameterized and tested in the context of a large manufacturer of capital goods. The results were supportive of the conceptual soundness of the moral and its utility in decision making.