Latent social distancing: Identification,causes and consequences

It is not directly observable how effectively a society practices social distancing during the COVID-19 pandemic. This paper proposes a novel and robust methodology to identify latent social distancing at the country level. We extend the Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered-Deceased (SEIRD) model with a time-varying, country-specific distancing term, and derive the Model-Inferred DIStancing index (MIDIS) for 120 countries using readily available epidemiological data. The index is not sensitive to measurement errors in epidemiological data and to the values assigned to model parameters. The evolution of MIDIS shows that countries exhibit diverse patterns of distancing during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic—a persistent increase, a trendless fluctuation, and an inverted U are among these patterns. We then implement regression analyses using MIDIS and obtain the following results: First, MIDIS is strongly correlated with available mobility statistics, at least for high income countries. Second, MIDIS is also strongly associated with (i) the stringency of lockdown measures (governmental response), (ii) the cumulative number of deceased persons (behavioral response), and (iii) the time that passed since the first confirmed case (temporal response). Third, there is statistically significant regional variation in MIDIS, and more developed societies achieve higher distancing levels. Finally, MIDIS is used to explain output losses experienced during the pandemic, and it is shown that there is a robust positive relationship between the two, with sizable economic effects.     

Foreign capital inflows and poverty linkages in South Asia: Do the forms of capital inflows matter?

The relationship between foreign direct investment and poverty reduction has received modest attention in the empirical literature. However, little is known about the relative significant impact of different forms of capital inflows on poverty reduction. This study attempts to investigate the impact of different forms of capital inflows (foreign direct inflows, portfolio equity and portfolio debt inflows) on poverty reduction in major South Asian economies during the post-reform period. The capital inflows-poverty nexus is explored using panel econometric methods robust to cross-sectional dependence. Our empirical results show that while portfolio equity inflows exert a favorable impact on poverty reduction, foreign direct inflows and debt inflows fail to influence poverty. The panel causality results demonstrate that portfolio equity inflows also support poverty alleviation via stimulating economic growth and trade openness. The findings of our study highlight the importance of considering the differential welfare impacts of different forms of capital inflows while implementing capital account liberalization.     

Guest Editorial: A purchasing and supply management view of supply resilience for better crisis response

Purchasing and supply management (PSM) has been under great pressure since the COVID-19 pandemic first shook the world. Companies and public organizations faced new kinds of supply disruptions, and at a scale never seen before. New response abilities were required from PSM to address these challenges and disruptions. This Editorial introduces four articles in the Special Issue on “PSM learning from the pandemic: transforming for better crisis management.” These empirical contributions show how companies could build resilience to survive and be competitive during the COVID-19 pandemic. This Editorial discusses how supply resilience should be conceptualized in post-pandemic supply chains adopting a PSM perspective. We suggest that supply resilience practices should be developed and planned according to whether they strengthen existing supply chain relationships (bridging) or establish new ones (buffering) and whether they are short-term (temporary) or long-term (permanent) orientated. Furthermore, three supply resilience capabilities, absorbing, responding and capitalizing, should be prioritized in supply chains for responding to and recovering from global crises and disruptions. Supply resilience is key to crisis response and recovery, and PSM has an essential role in building and sustaining that resilience.     

Dynamic volatility spillovers between industries in the US stock market: Evidence from the COVID-19 pandemic and Black Monday

We examine the volatility spillovers among various industries during the COVID-19 pandemic period. We measure volatility spillovers by defining the volatility of each sector in the S&P 500 index and implement a static and rolling-window analysis following the Diebold and Yilmaz (2012) approach. We find that the pandemic enhanced volatility spillovers, which reveals the financial contagion effects on the US stock market. Second, there were sudden, large changes in the dynamic volatility spillovers on Black Monday (March 9, 2020), much of it due to the energy sector shock. These findings have important implications for portfolio managers and policymakers.     

Economic fundamentals,policy responses,and state-level municipal bond sensitivity to COVID-19 prevalence

This paper conducts a state-by-state analysis of the financial impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the U.S. municipal bond market. Using panel regressions and state-by-state regressions, we find that the prevalence rates of the COVID-19 virus negatively impacted the aggregate performance of municipal bonds. The study also explored whether the disparities in the economic fundamentals of U.S. states, as well as the COVID-19 mitigation policies employed by each state, can explain the sensitivity of the state’s municipal bond to its COVID-19 prevalence rates. States with more desirable economic fundamentals and robust COVID-19 mitigation policies appeared to have higher COVID-19 sensitivities than states that do not. This finding may be due to a baseline effect, in which the higher levels of economic activities in these states also make them more susceptible to the deleterious effects of the stronger mitigation policies enacted by them.     

Pricing efficiency and asymmetric multifractality of major asset classes before and during COVID-19 crisis

We examine the impact of COVID-19 pandemic crisis on the pricing efficiency and asymmetric multifractality of major asset classes (S&P500, US Treasury bond, US dollar index, Bitcoin, Brent oil, and gold) within a dynamic framework. Applying permutation entropy on intraday data that covers between April 30, 2019 and May 13, 2020, we show that efficiency of all sample asset classes is deteriorated with the outbreak, and in most cases this deterioration is significant. Results are found to be robust under different analysis schemes. Brent oil is the highest efficient market before and during crisis. The degree of efficiency is heterogeneous among all markets. The analysis by an asymmetric multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis (A-MF-DFA) approach shows evidence of asymmetric multifractality in all markets which rise with the scales. The inefficiency is higher during downward trends before the pandemic crisis as well as during COVID-19 except for gold and Bitcoin. Moreover, the pandemic intensifies the inefficiency of all markets except Bitcoin. Findings reveal increased opportunities for price predictions and abnormal returns gains during the COVID-19 outbreak.     

韩国跨国公司自主创新的特征分析及启示

学者们多从自主创新和垄断优势两个不同的角度分别对跨国公司自主创新的理论进行研究．而将两者结合起来分析却比较少见。文章作者在分析韩国跨国公司的自主创新现状和特征的基础上,得出了几点启示：合作创新与模仿创新宜并行;合作创新或模仿创新是自主创新的前提;与发达国家不同,后发国家的自主创新多集中于过程技术创新;独资是自主创新企业的常用模式。     

韩国新能源和可再生能源的发展

韩国是世界第10大能源消费国和世界第5大石油进口国.韩国国内能源资源贫乏,能源严重依赖进口,2007年能源进口依存度达96.7%.为了应对近些年石油价格飙升和全球气候变化的挑战,韩国政府调整了能源发展战略,强调能源供应多样化,将新能源和可再生能源作为国家能源战略的重要组成部分;目标是在2011年前使新能源和可再生能源占全国能源供应的5%,2020年扩大到10%.为了促进新能源和可再生能源的快速发展,韩国政府制定了相关的法律、计划和经济激励政策等.     

Impact of Regional Economic Integration in East Asia

The current study evaluates the economy wide impact of trade liberalization in the ASEAN region along with China, Japan and Korea (ASEAN + 3) by the year 2020 using the GTAP framework. The study also assesses the environmental impact of the trade liberalization in the region focusing on the seven environmental indicators (CO₂, CH₄, N₂O, BOD, COD, Suspended Solid and Industrial Waste). The result shows that the countries under agreement (ASEAN + 3) will benefit with increased output, expansion of trade and welfare due to trade reforms. Further, the integration will increase the global welfare, although the regions not under agreement in the world will show a decline in output growth. Vietnam will be gaining with the highest output growth among the ASEAN region; however, the impact on the environment would not be favourable. The environmental impact reveals a mixed outcome for participating countries under the agreement. The paper provides useful insight in pursuing greater trade liberalization among the countries under the study.