Building from Scratch: New Cities,Privatized Urbanism and the Spatial Restructuring of Johannesburg after Apartheid

By the start of the twenty‐first century, the once dominant historical downtown core of Johannesburg had lost its privileged status as the center of business and commercial activities, the metropolitan landscape having been restructured into an assemblage of sprawling, rival edge cities. Real estate developers have recently unveiled ambitious plans to build two completely new cities from scratch: Waterfall City and Lanseria Airport City (formerly called Cradle City) are master‐planned, holistically designed ‘satellite cities’ built on vacant land. While incorporating features found in earlier city‐building efforts, these two new self‐contained, privately‐managed cities operate outside the administrative reach of public authority and thus exemplify the global trend toward privatized urbanism. Waterfall City, located on land that has been owned by the same extended family for nearly 100 years, is spearheaded by a single corporate entity. Lanseria Airport City/Cradle City is a planned ‘aerotropolis’ surrounding the existing Lanseria airport at the northwest corner of the Johannesburg metropole. These two new private cities differ from earlier large‐scale urban projects because everything from basic infrastructure (including utilities, sewerage, and the installation and maintenance of roadways), landscaping, security services, the regulation of common spaces, and selling and branding the city are firmly in the hands of private profit‐making corporate entities and outside the mandate of public authorities.     

Job Search and the Measurement of Unemployment in South Africa

We interrogate the distinction between searching and non‐searching unemployment in South Africa using data from the first national panel survey that tracks the individual. In particular, we test whether the non‐searching unemployed display a weaker commitment to the labour market than the searching unemployed, and we investigate what counts as search activity. We find that over the panel, the search status of the unemployed does not predict their subsequent employment status, a result that is robust also for subsamples that vary by age cohort, gender and location. Moreover, social networks are the most important job‐finding strategy of the employed. These findings challenge the exclusion of the non‐searching unemployed from the measure of “genuine” work seekers.     

How credible is the North Korean threat?

We perform event analysis on particular episodes of tension in the Korean peninsula between 2000 and 2008, and investigate the effect of the events on South Korean financial markets (stock markets, bond yield spreads and the exchange rate) given that South Korea would be the first affected by a military aggression from North Korea. Surprisingly, in nearly all cases, these events, which have often been dramatized in the world media, have no significant impact on either of these variables or only a very small one. We also find no significant impact of events on listed firms that would a priori be likely to suffer from increased tension between the two Koreas. Since financial markets often contain better predictions than expert opinions or surveys, these results strongly suggest that the North Korean threat is non‐credible.     

The importance of farmer education in South Australia

There is a significant challenge involved with balancing food security at local and global levels whilst mitigating the environmental and social consequences of the historically productivist agri-food system. This work will address the importance of education in the South Australian agricultural sector as a tool to maximise beneficial outcomes. The results of a blended method research project, which involved farmers and governance stakeholders in South Australia, are presented as empirical evidence highlighting the positive roles that formal education, in particular university education, have in regard to increasing sustainability. It was found that higher levels of formal education contributed to farmers being more likely to prioritise the socio-environmental outcomes of their agricultural land use. There was also a dramatic reduction in farmer concerns with government support mechanisms as education levels went from secondary or less, through to vocational qualifications, and finally university degrees. Interviews with agricultural governance stakeholders emphasised the role of education in building the adaptive capacity of farmers, and the subsequent positive outcomes for the future development of the South Australian agricultural industry. These results suggest that further education provides farmers with the capacity to compete effectively in a liberalised economy.     

Forecasting the Covid-19 recession and recovery: Lessons from the financial crisis

We consider simple methods to improve the growth nowcasts and forecasts obtained by mixed-frequency MIDAS and UMIDAS models with a variety of indicators during the Covid-19 crisis and recovery period, such as combining forecasts across various specifications for the same model and/or across different models, extending the model specification by adding MA terms, enhancing the estimation method by taking a similarity approach, and adjusting the forecasts to put them back on track using a specific form of intercept correction. Among these methods, adjusting the original nowcasts and forecasts by an amount similar to the nowcast and forecast errors made during the financial crisis and subsequent recovery seems to produce the best results for the US, notwithstanding the different source and characteristics of the financial crisis. In particular, the adjusted growth nowcasts for 2020Q1 get closer to the actual value, and the adjusted forecasts based on alternative indicators become much more similar, all unfortunately indicating a much slower recovery than without adjustment, and very persistent negative effects on trend growth. Similar findings also emerge for forecasts by institutions, for survey forecasts, and for the other G7 countries.     

Migrant remittances and fertility

This study examines the role of migrants’ remittances in developing countries’ fertility transition. Employing an unbalanced panel of South Asian countries and controlling for various economic and socio-demographic factors, we find that remittances are significantly associated with a lower number of children born to women of childbearing age. This suggests the remittances’ substitution effect to be at play rather than the income effect, and may result from decreased need for children for financing the household’s future needs as well as from better access to healthcare and contraceptive methods available to migrant households. Remittances’ association with fertility appears to be more important than the transfer of fertility norms from migrants’ host countries. The monetary aspects of international migration may therefore be more important for the region’s demographic transition than social remittances.     

深入学习贯彻党的十八届四中全会精神依法推进高职教育事业健康快速发展

党的十八届四中全会通过的《中共中央关于全面推进依法治国若干重大问题的决定》为全面推进依法治国作出重大部署.我们不仅要从历史和全局的高度学习贯彻十八届四中全会精神和《决定》内涵,以实事求是的精神全面推进依法治国,同时又要以依法治国方针为指导,全面推进高职教育事业健康快速发展.     

嬗变的传统:赣南闽西重修族谱的过程考察

当代赣南闽西地区的修谱活动,既很大程度地继承了传统,也在传统的基础上发生了一定的嬗变,体现了一些符合时代特点的新特征。一方面,修谱活动的组织过程保持了诸多传统的特色,如谱局的成立、调草、发谱仪式等。另一方面,当代宗族也注重吸收现代社会的组织理念和新鲜经验,比如成立更趋民主和平等色彩的现代组织机构理事会;经费筹集上更多地是采用灵活多样的市场化手段,如成立董事会、实施灵活的套餐计划鼓励捐赠等。这表明,宗族不是一个静态的组织,并不封闭、保守,而是具有较强的学习能力与开放性。