中国金融结构问题与M2/GDP偏高现象研究

上世纪90年代中期尤其是1997年之后,流动性过剩和资产价格剧烈波动成为中国经济运行中的典型现象,表现为货币供给量的变化和实体经济变量即产出和物价变化的脱节———M2/GDP偏高现象。根据宏观经济学的分析框架,货币总量与名义GDP之比作为衡量流动性过剩的尺度,反映了货币供求状态与实体宏观经济总量之间的关系。当流动性过剩成为持续现象时,说明相对于实体经济形成的总供给,货币市场持续出现超额供给,即货币市场提供的一部分货币资金没有流向实体经济,或投入到实体经济的货币资金没有形成真实的商品供给。由于现代货币制度下,货币供给量与金融体系提供的信贷规模和信贷资金流向紧密联系。因此考察流动性过剩现象应该更多关注金融结构,进而金融资源的配置方式和效率的变化。本文结合金融结构发展情况分析中国M2/GDP偏高现象,揭示金融结构发展中的问题并提出相应对策。     

A new economics approach to modelling policies to achieve global 2020 targets for climate stabilisation

This paper explores a Post Keynesian, ‘new economics’ approach to climate policy, assessing the opportunities for investment in accelerated decarbonisation of the global economy to 2020 following the Great Recession of 2008–2009. The risks associated with business-as-usual growth in greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations in the atmosphere suggest that avoiding dangerous climate change will require that the world’s energy-economy system is transformed through switching to low-carbon technologies and lifestyles. Governments have agreed a target to hold the increase in temperatures above pre-industrial levels to at most 2°C and have offered reductions by 2020 in GHG emissions or the carbon-intensity of GDP. The effects of policies proposed to achieve pathways to 2020 towards this target are assessed using E3MG, an Energy-Environment-Economy (E3) Model at the Global level. E3MG is an annual simulation econometric model, estimated for 20 world regions over 1972–2006 adopting a new economics approach. Additional low-GHG investment of some 0.7% of GDP, with carbon pricing and other policies, is sufficient to achieve a pathway consistent with a medium chance of achieving the long-term target. GDP is above reference levels because decarbonisation reduces world oil prices and increases investment. Employment is some 0.9% above reference levels by 2020 and public finances are almost unaffected.     

Measurement of Quality of Life and Well‐Being in France: The Drivers of Subjective Well‐Being

Ever since the publication of the Stiglitz Report, France has been heavily involved in the measurement of well‐being. The French Statistical Institute (INSEE) has expanded the scope of its existing surveys. It has also launched an innovative experimental survey which, drawing upon a single statistical source, aims for the first time to explore the different dimensions of both objective and subjective quality of life, as highlighted in the Stiglitz Report. It allows us to study, at the individual level, correlations between these dimensions and the accumulation of deprivations. It has enabled us to better understand the links between determinants generally referred to as objective dimensions of quality of life (such as health or education) and subjective well‐being. This information is of paramount importance for policy makers who cannot act directly on the level of people's satisfaction but can only act upon the levers of objective dimensions. This paper presents the main findings of the experimental survey.     

改进的YOLOv3-Tiny网络在风机叶片损伤检测中的应用

为了解决YOLOv3-Tiny对无人机采集的风机叶片图像损伤检测精度不高的问题,提出一种基于深度学习的风机叶片图像损伤检测方法。首先提出一种跨越式特征联合网络结构,由卷积层和拼接层构成,将不同深度的特征信息进行融合再学习,提取目标多层级特征信息;其次引入Inception模块结构,其中4个平行通道的多个卷积核对输入的特征图进行组合和压缩,在减少网络的学习参数的同时更好地表征图像特征信息,提高小目标的检测精度。实验表明,改进后算法的检测精度提高了2.69%,在自制的数据集中mAP可以达到88.58%,并且模型的参数缩小了4倍。因此,改进的方法比传统的YOLOv3-Tiny网络具有更好的检测效果。研究结果可为基于图像的损伤检测和风机叶片损伤智能识别提供参考。     

一种适用于TD-SCDMA系统的多用户检测算法

利用逐次干扰抵消多用户检测结构,结合空时RAKE接收机,提出一种空时逐次干扰抵消多用户检测算法.仿真结果表明,该算法相比传统空时RAKE接收机有近5 dB的增益,误码率有了相当的改进.     

R~2、异常收益与交易的信息成分

在CAPM回归中,低R^2的公司的价格是否更有效地反映了公司的特质信息在学术界始终存在争论。在R^2与公司特征变量的横截面检验基础之上,我们通过一个零成本投资组合考察了两个竞争性的理论。结果发现,（1）R^2与公司信息环境有显著关系,而且对于市场信息反应不够有效的公司,R^2会更低;（2）低酽股票组合短期的异常收益有更明显的时间序列可预测性和横截面风险,这说明在我国股市,低群代表了资产价格中更大的噪音成分;（3）股票的R^2与其价格中所包含的信息不对称或逆向选择成分呈负相关。     

The association between the severity of chronic kidney disease and medical costs among patients with type 2 diabetes

Aims: Examine healthcare costs across chronic kidney disease (CKD) stages for US patients with type 2 diabetes (T2D).

Materials and methods: IQVIA Real World Data Adjudicated Claims linked electronic medical records and insurance claims from January 1, 2012 through March 31, 2017 were used for this retrospective study. Adults diagnosed with T2D and comorbid CKD were included. General linear models incorporating splines were constructed, and information from these regressions were used to inform the relationship between medical costs and CKD. Multivariable analyses controlled for patient characteristics, vital signs, general health, prior medication use, prior visit to specialists, index A1c, and year of index date.

Results: There were 6,645 individuals who met the study criteria. Results generally indicate sharp increases in annual total medical costs and non-drug medical costs in the 1?year post-period for patients with Stage 4 or 5 CKD (estimated glomerular filtration rate [eGFR]?≤?30?mL/min/1.73 m²) with each 1 point reduction in eGFR from 30 associated with an increase of $1,870 in all-cause total medical costs (p?<?0.0001) and $1,805 of all-cause non-drug medical costs (p?<?0.0001). Similarly, each point decline below 30?mL/min was associated annual cost increases of $1,701 for CKD-related total medical costs, $1,695 for CKD-related non-drug medical costs, $173 for diabetes-related medical costs, and $187 for diabetes-related non-drug medical costs (all p?<?0.0001).

Limitations: The investigation included only patients with medical insurance and laboratory test results, and results may not be generalizable to all T2D patients with CKD. The methodology allowed us to determine associations, not causation, and potential confounders, such as duration of diabetes, diet, exercise, or social support, could not be assessed.

Conclusions: Results indicate there are sharp and significant increases in medical costs among T2D patients with Stage 4 and 5 CKD compared to those with earlier stages of CKD.     

西方学者对模式3知识生产的多视角理论阐释

遵循科学知识生产逻辑演进规律,在模式1和模式2知识生产发展的基础上,模式3知识生产已初见端倪。近年来,西方学界从多视角对模式3知识生产进行了理论阐释。从高等教育学视角来看,泰勒学派强调模式3知识的缄默性,巴内塔学派强调模式3知识的不确定性;从知识哲学视角来看,昆尼曼学派强调模式3知识生产的道德伦理性;从创新生态学视角来看,卡拉亚尼斯学派强调模式3知识生产的创新生态系统性;从社会生态学视角看,吉门尼兹学派强调模式3知识生产的社会生态性。     

Risk compensation in wages – a replication

We use data from Germany, The Netherlands, Portugal and Spain to test for the effect of earnings variation on individual earnings. We replicate estimates for the USA and find that the variance of earnings in an occupation affects individual wages positively while the skewness of earnings has a negative effect. Both results are in conformity with wage compensation for risk averse workers. First version received: March 2001/Final version received: July 2002 We are grateful to two anonymous referees for valuable comments.     

Social contracts,markets and efficiency: Groundwater irrigation in North India

This paper uses primary data to analyze the institutions and informal markets that govern groundwater allocation in a sugarcane-cultivating village in North India. We find that, in contrast to earlier literature, the observed water trades result in efficient water allocation across farms. We interpret this and other stylized facts in terms of a social contract using a simple bargaining model with limited inter-player transfers. Poor functioning of the power sector leads to reduced pumping and a water supply constraint. Simulations show that power supply reform can significantly increase farm yields, and be financed out of increased farm profits.