汇率决定理论的新近发展:文献综述

传统汇率决定理论对于现实经济中汇率实际变动情况的解释能力十分低下.20世纪80年代以来,学术界不断寻求突破,以期为汇率如何决定这一基本命题提供更为合理的解释.在这一过程中,不断有新的文献出现,从不同的方面对传统的汇率理论进行补充、发展和替代.鉴于此,本文试图对汇率决定理论的新近发展进行梳理和介绍,借以为国内经济学界研究汇率决定问题提供一个理论参考.     

Bandwagon mergers,international competitiveness,and government policy

This paper suggests that while the static welfare losses of merger predilections among Western firms may not be dramatic, they may lead to substantial dynamic losses when merger-prone firms need to compete with firms which instead focus on equipment investment and investments in R&D. It is suggested that such diverging investment priorities have been the real cause of the deteriorating competitiveness of many of the largest Western enterprises vis-à-vis their Japanese rivals. While mergers are generally taken to be determined by either efficiency or monopoly considerations, this paper argues that Western merger predilections are likely to be generated by a combination of imitative and defensive routines as well. That would make it difficult for firms to unilaterally break away from these competitiveness-threatening investments. If correct, this would imply that competition policies would need to be refocused. However, it is also suggested that the implications for international competitiveness should make merger questions a subject of industrial policies too. In that respect, the paper suggests some basic attitudinal changes.Earlier versions of this paper were presented at a Global Forum for Competition and Trade Policy conference in Vienna and at a EUNIP workshop at Åbo Akademi University, Finland. Financial support from the Dutch Ministry of Economic Affairs (contract nos. 54473 and 57305) and the European Commission (contract no. ERB CHRX CT94-0454), research assistance from Michel Renirie and Chee-Wai Chan, and helpful comments from the conference and workshop participants, especially Kurt Bayer and Keith Cowling, are gratefully acknowledged. Only the author is responsible for the contents of, and any flaws in the paper.     

博弈论在治理河流水污染中的应用

针对我国日益严重的河流水污染状况，本文通过对污染源企业和政府之间的关系进行博弈分析，建立监督博弈模型，并以此分析政府对污染源企业的监管力度及经济上的处罚力度。     

Identification and analysis of underdeveloped resource-rich regions in China

This paper analyzes the existence of developmental views and compares the results of previous studies for underdeveloped regions.In view of the limitations of previous studies,this study details regional unit,expands index system,applies factor-analysis to structure index system,uses the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model to improve analytic hierarchy process,and identifies the economic developmental levels of 384 regions,including 4 municipalities,333 cities at prefecture level,and 47 counties under the jurisdiction of province.The levels of the 47 counties are identified by dividing the rank of comprehensive values of more than 337 regions unit into five equal graduations and then matching the 47 counties with the five-graduation results.This study provides the distribution of resources-rich region in China qualitatively and quantitatively in terms of coal,oil gas and other 14 kinds of metal mineral resources.Finally,by matching the two parts of results,this study identifies the distribution of underdeveloped resource-rich regions （URRRs）.URRRs are mainly distributed in Shaanxi,Shanxi,Guizhou,Yunnan,Sichuan,He ＇nan,Shandong,Guangxi and Gansu provinces,which accounts for 78.57% of the total in China.To a certain degree,the result of this paper proves that ＂resources curse ＂ existing in the national stratification plane in later 20^th century still takes places in some cities in China,especially in the counties of these cities ＇jurisdiction.     

旅游集散中心对旅游潜在需求的激活机制研究——基于创新的视角

在简要介绍旅游集散中心及旅游潜在需求基础上,基于创新的视角,系统分析了旅游集散中心对旅游潜在需求的激活机制,指出旅游集散中心对潜在需求的影响与激活的机制是通过多种机制,借助于创新性旅游服务以及文化、理念、时尚等作用于潜在旅游消费需求的不同层面,从而激活旅游潜在需求。     

RTAs:中国进一步扩大对外经贸合作的新途径

20世纪90年代尤其是世界贸易组织建立和运作以来,区域贸易安排迅猛发展,呈现出许多新的特点.在经济全球化和中国已加入世界贸易组织的新形势下,中国积极参与和推进区域贸易安排是在更大范围、更广领域和更高层次上参与国际经济技术合作与竞争、以开放促改革促发展的新途径.应进一步加强区域贸易安排的研究,建立国家区域贸易安排运作机制,制定切实可行的区域贸易安排计划,以提升中国经济的竞争力,迎接世界区域贸易安排发展带来的机遇和挑战.     

The optimal portfolio for the two-pillar mandatory pension system: the case of Poland

In the recent decade, there has been observed across the Central and Eastern European states the regulatory trend towards the increase of the non-financial (first) pension pillar size at the expense of the financial (second) pillar. It tends to question the consequences of this shift for the future retirement benefits. Applying the portfolio approach we address this issue by running a series of simulations to find out how to allocate pension contributions between both pillars in an optimal way. Our study contributes to the existing literature as follows. First, we do not perform the assessment of the predetermined regulatory solutions, but we look for an optimal one. Moreover, we allow our optimal rule to be time-varying, if necessary, which would be a true novelty in this research area. Second, we do not base our estimates on historical trends; rather, we apply the long-term economy’s projection to account for the society’s ageing impact, which is a crucially important factor for the solvency of the pension system. Adapting some of the simulation assumptions to fit the Polish case, our results confirm that current regulations underestimate the role of the capital pillar and the optimal allocation between both pillars should be time-varying.     

集聚效应对跨国公司在华区位选择的影响

本文以跨国公司区位选择微观理论为基础,利用条件Logit模型,对2007年《财富》世界500强中,1995年到2007年期间,457家美国子公司和537家欧洲子公司在华个体区位选择决定因素进行了实证分析。分析结果表明,集聚效应是样本公司区位选择的重要决定因素,在华投资的欧美制造业公司普遍采用"集聚"这一战略,其子公司大量集聚在东部地区,盲目吸收外资来缩小东—西部经济发展不平衡的政策并不合适,尤其是中部地区。因此,在文章末,本文对中国政府应该如何减小区域经济发展不平衡和合理引用外资提出了建议。     

试论我国食品安全供应链综合管理

食品供应链综合管理的核心内容是质量认证与跟踪管理,其思想为解决我国食品供应链中的安全问题提供了基本的思路。本文在分析我国食品供应链中存在的与食品安全相关的问题基础上,对我国实践食品安全供应链综合管理进行了思考,提出了从宏观、中观、微观三个层面上进行食品安全供应链综合管理的框架,并对食品安全供应链综合管理中的信息集成与共享进行了探讨。     

福州市旅游客流量现状及其驱动因素

旅游客流量是衡量区域旅游业及旅游经济发展快慢的一个重要指标,也是反映旅游区景观质量好坏与综合服务水平高低的一个综合指标。文章依据福州市最近5年(1999—2003年)的旅游客流量及相关的社会经济数据,分年度、季度、月与黄金周等不同时段对近年来福州市区域旅游客流量的现状及其变动状况进行分析,并从旅游景区(点)内在的引力因素与外在的社会环境驱动因素两方面对影响福州市客流量的主要驱动因素进行了分析。