Developing a holistic approach to the analysis of farmer decision-making: Implications for adaptation policy and practice in developing countries

Smallholder farmers operate within a risky and uncertain context. In addition to climate variability and climate change, social, environmental, institutional, and market-related dynamics affect their agricultural decisions and ability to cope and adapt. In this paper, we develop and apply a set of framing questions to investigate the factors shaping farmer decision-making and how these are situated in pathways of response. Drawing on a literature review of decision-making for risk management, five questions are posed to frame enquiry: what livelihood decisions are undertaken by households, who makes what decisions, when do households make decisions and why do they make them, and how do decision making processes evolve and response pathways arise. This approach conceptualises and explores household decision-making in a holistic manner, moving beyond previous studies that examine smallholder decisions through disciplinary boundaries (e.g. psychology, economics, risk management) or particular theoretical approaches (e.g. bounded rationality, theory of planned behaviour). The framing questions together with key insights from literature are used to design and interpret empirical evidence from Pratapgarh, a tribal-dominated rainfed district in southeast Rajasthan, India. The findings suggest that while resource ownership and access are the main drivers of decision-making, socio-cognitive factors such as perceived adaptive capacity and perceived efficacy to carry out adaptive actions are equally important factors mediating farmer responses. We also find that the holistic approach helps explain how personal motivations and individual perceptions of adaptive capacity interact with socioeconomic, climatic, and agro-ecological dynamics at local and regional scales to mediate risk perception and inform response behaviour. A typology of response pathways demonstrates how different households’ trajectories are determined. Making a case for mixed methods to investigate farmer decision-making holistically, this paper provides an approach that reflects the complex and iterative nature of real farmer decision-making and can be used by researchers, policymakers, and practitioners to better understand and describe decision making and to develop informed policies and interventions.     

决策树法在我国建设工程项目施工招投标中的应用

针对投标过程操作的不规范,决策不科学的市场现状,如何提高施工企业的中标率,获得更好的效益,本文测重介绍决策树法的应用给我们带来的广泛的适用性和可操作性。     

Reconceptualizing Intuition in Supply Chain Management

Studies in the psychology and management disciplines suggest that intuition might be able to complement rationality as an effective decision‐making approach. Yet, a review of how decision makers in supply chain contexts can benefit from using their intuition demonstrates that our discipline lacks a unifying conceptualization and operationalization of the complex intuition construct. Our study addresses this opportunity by following an extensive mixed‐method approach, in which we first use qualitative content analysis and quantitative testing to conceptualize intuition as a multidimensional construct consisting of experience‐based, emotional, and automatic‐processing dimensions. We then operationalize and empirically assess multidimensionality using a multiple study format, and perform an inferential analysis to begin to assess nomological validity. Our reconceptualization of intuition allows for a richer understanding of this key facet of supply chain management decision making, and our accompanying scale provides evidence of its multidimensionality and efficacy in making decisions in the uncertain and time‐constrained environments that supply chain managers often face.     

管理者在投资决策中会倾听市场的声音吗?

基于2008-2013年A股上市公司样本, 利用回归分析方法考察管理者在投资决策中是否会倾听市场的声音. 结果发现: 管理者在投资决策中根据市场股价水平和股价信息调整投资规模, 即进行市场学习, 且在控制了管理者自有信息和分析师信息之后,市场学习假说被进一步验证, 在排除融资约束以及市场择机或误定价的影响后, 该假说仍然对回归结果具有解释力度; 不论信息透明与否, 市场学习行为均能提高企业的经营效率.     

Development of a multi-criteria spatial planning support system for growth potential modelling in the Western Cape,South Africa

Growth potential modelling is useful as it provides insight into which settlements in a region are likely to experience growth and which areas are likely to decline. However, growth potential modelling is an ill-structured problem as there is no universally-agreed set of criteria (parameters) that can be combined in a particular way (rules) to provide a definitive growth potential measure (solution). In this paper we address the ill-structured problem of growth potential modelling by combining multi-criteria decision making (MCDM), geographical information systems (GIS) and planning support systems (PPS) to generate a number of growth scenarios for settlements in Western Cape province of South Africa. A new framework and methodology for selecting, structuring and analysing multiple growth potential criteria is proposed. The framework, based on the principles of innovation potential and growth preconditions, was applied to demonstrate how it can be used to identify a series of candidate criteria relating to the growth potential of settlements. The criteria were subjected to a MCDM process involving criteria selection, weighting and normalisation. Two criteria sets, weighting schemes and normalisation methods were considered. Two different classification techniques were also evaluated. A total of 16 scenarios were generated using a newly-developed growth potential PPS (GPPSS). The paper shows how the GPPSS can be used to quantitatively and qualitatively assess the various scenarios and to select the most appropriate solution.     

Organizational AIDS policies: Aiming at a moving target

This article examines the effect that theArline decision is likely to have on organizational policies regarding terminations when such actions involve AIDS-afflicted employees working in organizations that are subject to the provisions of the Vocational Rehabilitation Act of 1973. Certain criteria that must be considered when an organization is contemplating terminations involving this class of employees are defined. In addition, a systematic analysis technique which may provide insights in arriving at such employment decisions is specified. Finally, the authors identify several elements which have yet to be adequately addressed by existing legislation or court decisions that serve to impede the establishment of effective policies in this area.     

Hazard model estimates of the decision to reenroll in school

In a sample of males drawn from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth, one-third of the individuals who first leave school between 1978 and 1990 are found to return to school before 1991. In light of this finding, the current study extends the analysis of schooling demand to a dynamic framework in order to consider the timing of the enrollment decision. A semiparametric, proportional hazard model for nonenrollment durations is estimated. The hazard model estimates are consistent with the view that young men reenroll in school when the costs are relatively low and/or the benefits are relatively high. For example, increases in state-wide average tuition levels and current earned wages lower the hazard rate, while increases in unemployment rates have the opposite effect.     

Using Stakeholder-Theory into Case-Method

In order to draw some attention to the subject of business ethics and to achieve the inclusion of business ethics into the official curricula of the sixth form courses in secondary schools in Flanders, the Flemish Network for Business Ethics set up a pilot project. It includes about twelve lessons. The main object is to teach students how to cope with an ethical problem. Therefore an educational map has been edited – titled Ethics ...none of my business? (Siebens, 1998) – in which a procedure to handle an ethical problem is proposed. The procedure rests on the stakeholders-approach (Freeman, 1984). Other theoretical items are: ethical intuition, traditional moral norms and communication, a procedure approach, the limitation of acting, and the metaphysical basis (especially the existentialistic philosophy of Lévinas).

The basic procedure contains four steps. But the map makes a distinction between a procedure for a ‘choice’ directed situation and a procedure for an ‘evaluation’ directed situation. The subject of the project is business ethics, but the organizing commission hopes the students will learn to look at their entire world from an ethical angle. Because real ethical intuition hasn't to do with external hierarchical power and regulation but with selfregulation, argumentative authority and internalized values and principles.

     

论企业的高低品牌双赢战略

文章论述了企业创造品牌的运作方式,指出企业应该根据自身情况和客观市场环境具体问题,运用高低品牌双赢战略,使企业在市场竞争中取得事半功倍的效果。     

Brand promotions as a lottery

This paper shows that imprecisely stated discounts in brand promotions offered in the form of a low-probability lottery can lead to higher sales (purchase intentions) and consequently profits than equally costly conventional promotions offering a precise discount on the entire stock. Results from two different experimental studies support our findings. For high-probability lottery-like promotions, imprecise discounts lead to a lower performance for the brand than conventional promotions. We attempt to explain the findings by drawing on the behavioral decision theory literature.