The effects of China's growth on the food prices and the food exports of other developing countries

This article explores the impacts of China's growth in the international markets of agricultural products along two dimensions: food price inflation and export growth in other developing countries. China's food imports of vegetable oils have grown dramatically over the last decade, linking China's economic growth to the recent increases in global food prices. If China is a source of global food price inflation, exporting countries will benefit whether they sell directly to China or not. These direct and indirect linkages are explored using a short‐run, partial‐equilibrium model of international trade in agricultural products in which consumer prices and trade costs are derived from bilateral trade flows. China's effects on food prices and exports are estimated by reducing Chinese food expenditures in 2007 by half, roughly China's level of expenditures in 1995. Results indicate that food prices as measured by CES price indexes in developing Asia, Africa, and Latin America would have been reduced by 1.27%, 0.32%, and 0.22%, respectively. China has been an important source of growth for exporters selling directly to China. There is no evidence of export growth due to an overall increase in food prices caused by China's growth.     

Trade diversion and antidumping effectiveness: insights from a residual demand model

A residual demand model is developed to predict the likely effects of an antidumping duty in the presence of trade diversion. A key insight is that the ability of an AD duty to increase the welfare of producers in the country imposing the duty hinges on the import supply elasticity for product from non‐named sources. The only instance in which this is not true is when supply for product from the named source is perfectly elastic. In this case, the welfare gain to domestic producers is maximised irrespective of the supply elasticity for imports from non‐named sources. A comparison of the residual demand model with the Armington model suggests the latter significantly understates both trade diversion and domestic producer gains from the duty.     

Time-varying Armington elasticity and country-of-origin bias: from the dynamic perspective of the Japanese demand for beef imports

Elasticities of substitution, often called Armington elasticities, reflect incomplete substitutability because of perceived product characteristics. This study divides the determinants of the Japanese demand for beef imports into two factors: (i) substitution elasticity and (ii) country-of-origin bias, and demonstrate how these measurements are associated with trade policy and food scare events. The Japanese beef industry serves as a case study to evaluate the multifold impact of import liberalisation and a series of bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) outbreaks. A time-varying parameter model is used to shed light on the dynamic effects of the import liberalisation and BSE outbreaks on the measurements. The estimation results reveal that the estimated substitutability and country-of-origin bias are very sensitive to the BSE cases, but not to the process of trade liberalisation. The results also confirm that as a result of the BSE outbreaks, the major factor of the Japanese demand for beef imports has changed from relative prices to the country-of-origin effect, thereby emphasising the importance of a traceability system and promotional activities, which would help in the formation of the country-of-origin effect.     

中国木材进口的可替代性和进口来源安全性分析

基于2008—2017年中国与常年贸易伙伴国的数据样本,运用面板数据估计方法分别测算了国产原木、锯材与进口原木、锯材之间的Armington替代弹性,并分三阶段分组检验,还测算了中国原木、锯材主要进口来源国的出口产出弹性。结果显示:国产原木、锯材与进口原木、锯材之间具有较低的可替代性,且可替代性均呈下降趋势;内外材差异化程度较大,对国外进口木材具有长期的进口依赖性;原木进口市场供给风险较大,新西兰、澳大利亚供给安全性强,美国、巴布亚新几内亚、俄罗斯进口风险大;锯材进口市场的供给较稳定,泰国、巴西和马来西亚等国供给潜力大。因此,中国应大力发展培育国内优质大径材和珍贵树材,建设培育基地,提高优质木材供给能力;寻找珍贵木材的替代材料,通过技术开发生产替代产品;加强境外森林资源的开发利用,调整木材进口来源,减少对高风险国家的进口依赖。     

Armington Elasticities and Tariff Regime: An Application to European Union Rice Imports

The European Union’s (EU) import sources for rice include developing countries and least developed countries (LDCs). The EU has made a commitment to allow duty‐free and quota‐free access to rice imports originating in the LDCs from September 2009 onward. The purpose of this article is to answer two questions: (1) does the inclusion of import tariffs lead to different estimated Armington elasticities? (2) when a discriminating tariff is introduced, what happens to the market share of large rice exporters to the EU, especially of poor countries? We present the Armington model, derived from a constant elasticity of substitution (CES) utility function, and a non‐homothetic CES utility functional form, which is more flexible. We then estimate the Armington model, with and without the inclusion of a tariff, and we compare the elasticities. Lastly, we model five scenarios with different discriminated import tariff rates to calculate the changes in the market access of large rice exporters to the EU. Our empirical results show the importance of non‐homothetic preferences and import tariffs. Ignoring import tariffs and the non‐homothetic parameter may produce results which are biased and of uncertain validity. Furthermore, the simulation findings demonstrate that, in spite of a large difference between import tariff rate of Suriname and other countries (scenario V), its market access would not change greatly. This may be caused by supply side problems like poor infrastructures, weak technology and small capacity production in LDCs.     

我国原油进口依存度的国别差异分析——基于Armington模型的实证检验

本文引入Armington模型作为原油进口依存度的分析工具,运用面板数据等分析方法,对Armington弹性进行了估计。实证结果表明:总体上,我国原油进口依存度不高,且国别之间存在较大差异。大部分国家"高进口量高依存度,低进口量低依存度"的特征较为明显,但依然存在"高进口量低依存度"以及"低进口量高依存度"的现象。同时,部分国家的弹性估计值为负,呈现出"买涨不买落"的特点,本文认为这不仅是原油定价机制的问题,也是国际能源政治的集中体现。     

Does a better diet reduce dependence on imports? The case of Tunisia

In the last 40 years, Tunisia has experienced—as many other developing and emerging countries—a dietary transition, which led to an increase in the consumption of sugar, fats, and animal products. This transition was accompanied by an increase in noncommunicable diseases, particularly cardiovascular diseases. Using mathematical programming, we optimized the Tunisian diet using the French dietary recommendations as constraints. Then, we used the Global Trade Analysis Project's constant elasticities of substitution in order to simulate the impact of fulfilling the nutrient recommendations on international trade and domestic supply. Using this approach, we showed that the Tunisian diet is rich in carbohydrates and sugar but lacks fibers, some minerals, and vitamins. The adherence to all recommendations would induce an imperative shift to less sugar and cereal-based products by reducing the import dependence on these products, but would result a dramatic increase in the domestic supply of products from animal origin, fruits, vegetables, and legumes.     

Demand shifts and willingness to pay in applied trade models

Emerging issues facing open economies, including global value chains and non-tariff measures, have important implications for demand that are often not well suited for analysis with the supply-side mechanisms commonly found in economic models – namely taxes and productivity. The aim of this paper is to provide a methodological approach for implementing demand-side changes. Specifically, the approach adapts the Armington equation to model a change in consumers' willingness to pay for imports. To illustrate, we estimate the impacts of the World Trade Organization's Trade Facilitation Agreement (TFA). Estimated ad valorem equivalents of the TFA are applied as demand-side shocks to consumers' willingness to pay in a global applied general equilibrium model and the results compared to those obtained using Samuelson's iceberg approach. We find that the iceberg approach results in a technical change which increases the productivity of imports, raising real GDP, while the willingness-to-pay approach causes a smaller rise in real GDP, although trade increases further. The impact on the terms of trade differs significantly between the two mechanisms, with prices falling as costs fall, under the iceberg method, and rising with increased willingness to pay. Our results clearly show that the choice of mechanism matters.     

Constant market shares analysis: uses,limitations and prospects*

In this paper, we generalise the constant market shares (CMS) framework, with particular attention to the underlying theoretical conditions required for diagnostic interpretation. The approach is applied to the analysis of the export performance of the Australian processed food sector in South‐East Asia over the period 1980–2003. We conclude that the usefulness of CMS analysis for evaluating a country's international trade performance depends upon the empirical validity of the aggregation assumptions implicit in the diagnostic interpretation.     

Modeling of FDI in business services: Additional effects in case of Ukraine's European integration

To analyze Ukraine's deep and comprehensive integration with the EU, we develop a multi-regional general-equilibrium simulation model incorporating heterogeneous firms and Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) in business services. This allows for consideration of (a) trade growth in new varieties; (b) aggregate productivity changes attributed to reallocation of resources across and within an industry; and (c) productivity growth in manufacturing due to increased access to business services. The results indicate relatively small gains for the EU, whereas Ukraine benefits with a welfare increase of over 8%. The deindustrialization impact, previously found by Olekseyuk and Balistreri (2014 Olekseyuk, Z., and E.J. Balistreri. 2014. “Trade Liberalization Gains under Different Trade Theories: A Case Study for Ukraine.” Working Paper 2014-13. Colorado School of Mines, Division of Economics and Business. Golden. [Google Scholar]) in a comparison of different modeling structures, is supported by our findings. Ukraine's welfare gains are higher under an Armington structure compared to monopolistic competition. This is due to a movement of resources into Ukraine's traditional export sectors producing under constant returns. Implementation of the FDI modeling approach and liberalization of barriers to FDI, however, mitigates the deindustrialization impact as multinational firms enter the Ukrainian market. This increases the number of available varieties and, consequently, induces productivity growth of manufacturing sectors due to improved access to business services as critical inputs.