The advantage of avoiding the Armington assumption in multi-region models

Most computable general equilibrium models that describe interactions between multiple regions employ the so-called Armington assumption that goods that are produced in different regions are imperfect substitutes for each other. The paper describes an alternative algorithm based on the assumption of perfect substitutability that accommodates the observation that each region produces all traded goods. For models with many regions and less-that-perfectly mobile factors, the alternative algorithm greatly reduces convergence time. The algorithm is illustrated by comparing two static multi-region models of the 50 U.S. states and the District of Columbia, with and without the Armington assumption. The model without the Armington assumption is then extended to a dynamic 51-region model with agents that have perfect foresight over 6 periods.     

Impacts of world prices transmission to domestic rice markets in rural Iran

This paper attempts to assess the degree to which Iranian rural households have responded to the change in price of imported rice due to exchange-rate unification, and to examine the extent to which the policy has affected the economic welfare of various household income groups, particularly the poor. Utilizing samples of 2472 households selected from national expenditure survey data of 2002 and 2003, Armington and pass-through elasticities were calculated as two measures of substitutability, and are discussed separately for each household group in these areas.     

Modeling of FDI in business services: Additional effects in case of Ukraine's European integration

To analyze Ukraine's deep and comprehensive integration with the EU, we develop a multi-regional general-equilibrium simulation model incorporating heterogeneous firms and Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) in business services. This allows for consideration of (a) trade growth in new varieties; (b) aggregate productivity changes attributed to reallocation of resources across and within an industry; and (c) productivity growth in manufacturing due to increased access to business services. The results indicate relatively small gains for the EU, whereas Ukraine benefits with a welfare increase of over 8%. The deindustrialization impact, previously found by Olekseyuk and Balistreri (2014 Olekseyuk, Z., and E.J. Balistreri. 2014. “Trade Liberalization Gains under Different Trade Theories: A Case Study for Ukraine.” Working Paper 2014-13. Colorado School of Mines, Division of Economics and Business. Golden. [Google Scholar]) in a comparison of different modeling structures, is supported by our findings. Ukraine's welfare gains are higher under an Armington structure compared to monopolistic competition. This is due to a movement of resources into Ukraine's traditional export sectors producing under constant returns. Implementation of the FDI modeling approach and liberalization of barriers to FDI, however, mitigates the deindustrialization impact as multinational firms enter the Ukrainian market. This increases the number of available varieties and, consequently, induces productivity growth of manufacturing sectors due to improved access to business services as critical inputs.