金融可及性、互联网金融和家庭信贷约束——基于CHFS数据的实证研究

本文基于中国家庭金融调查(CHFS)数据,选择工具变量,采用极大似然估计方法发现,金融可及性可显著增加家庭信贷需求,同时显著降低家庭信贷约束的概率。进一步,本文发现金融可及性可显著降低家庭需求型信贷约束和供给型信贷约束的概率。本文引入互联网金融变量后发现,在正规金融不可及的情况下,互联网金融可显著促进家庭信贷需求,并降低家庭信贷约束的概率。本文政策含义是,提高金融可及性,推广互联网金融,对于释放家庭信贷需求,缓解家庭信贷约束,提升家庭消费水平具有积极意义。     

浙江省单位GDP能耗的实证分析

本文主要从产业结构因素和产业能源利用效率因素分析了浙江省单位GDP能源消费变化的原因,得出以下几点结论:①能源利用效率占主导因素,其中第二产业又是影响整体能源利用效率的主要因素;②在产业结构中,第二产业同样也是影响产业结构的主要影响因素;③从行业中看,电力热力生产和供应业、纺织与造纸行业、非金属矿物制品业是耗能最多的三个行业。浙江省的节能减排措施主要从提高能源利用效率出发,尤其要提高重点用能行业的能源利用效率,优化产业结构。     

农村金融机构、居民贷款可得性与城乡收入差距

本文基于银行网点设立和家庭信贷选择的视角,研究了新型农村金融机构和传统农村金融机构对城乡居民贷款可得性和城乡居民收入差距的异质性影响。根据我国2000—2018年县域经济、金融机构网点和CHIP2018家庭调查等数据,研究发现,新型农村金融机构表现出良好的支农支小效果,缓解了农村地区信贷约束,比较而言,传统农村金融机构的表现相对偏弱。具体来看,新型农村金融机构的网点扩张提高了农村居民的贷款可得性,进而有利于缩小城乡收入差距。本文研究为我国农村金融机构改革提供了一定参考。     

When bad news is good news: Geopolitical risk and the cross-section of emerging market stock returns

Using a news-based gauge of geopolitical risk, we study its role in asset pricing in global emerging markets. We find that changes in risk positively predict future stock returns. The countries with the highest increase in geopolitical uncertainty outperform their counterparts with the lowest change by up to 1% per month. The anomaly is not explained by other established asset pricing effects and remains robust to many considerations. We link the observed phenomenon with investor overreaction to geopolitical news driven by the availability bias.     

A hybrid modeling approach for resilient agri-supply network design in emerging countries: Colombian coffee supply chain

Sustainability and resilience in Agri-Food Supply Chains is a challenging topic of current interest in the research community. Resilience for Agri-Food Supply Chain (AFSC) is the capability of the supply network to manage and mitigate disruptions due to global warming and natural phenomena such as landslides and floods of crops, among others caused by humans. A significant challenge is to design efficient and resilient AFSCs in emerging countries while perishability constraints are considered. A methodology to design an AFSC for emerging countries is addressed in this research. The phenomena that aid in identifying critical aspects of the AFSC affecting their resilience are identified. The former approach combines optimization and simulation schemes by considering resilience metrics related to availability and connectivity. Indeed, the solution approach addresses the uncertainty by using simulation of disruptive events and finding resilient designs using mathematical programming. The proposed framework has been evaluated in a Colombian coffee supply chain. The obtained results show the efficiency of the proposed scheme to design AFSCs and allow the practitioners to measure, predict, compare, and improve the level of resilience of their supply chains (SCs).     

A Point Processes approach to bicycle sharing systems’ design and management

Public bicycle systems have attracted a great deal of attention in recent years. The success of this service heavily depends on the topology of the city and on the locations of bike stations in relation to potential demand. In fact, it is primarily important that users find bike stations in convenient locations, sufficiently close both to the origins of their trips and to their destinations, and that each rental station guarantees the availability both of enough bicycles and of enough empty docking slots.This paper proposes a point processes approach to the study of bike-sharing systems, allowing us to quantify and control parameters having a key role in decisions both of strategic and operational type.Differently from previous studies, the point processes approach catches both the interdependence among the stations and the links between spatial and time aspects of the problem.The application of point processes, in particular spatial mixed Poisson processes, to this field requires the statement and proof of an invariance property of such processes under stochastic dependent transformations, that may be of interest also from a theoretical point of view.     

融资成本、金融可得性与军民科技协同创新——基于中关村与湖南省实践分析

探索金融支持军民科技协同创新的有效途径，使资金链与创新链、产业链、政策链发展要求相适应，对军民科技协同创新发展具有重要意义。目前，我国军民科技协同创新面临融资成本高、金融可得性低的双重约束，中关村、湖南两地军民科技协同创新的成功实践表明，破除军民科技协同创新融资约束的关键在于发挥市场配置资源的决定性作用以及更好地发挥政府主导作用。具体而言，在科技创新活跃和金融服务相对完善地区，应搭建金融中介服务平台，充分发挥各市场主体的主观能动性；在科技创新潜力大但金融服务相对薄弱地区，应加强“银-政”合作，充分发挥开发性金融服务机构及地方政府的主动性和创造性，推动军民科技协同创新。