The role of regulatory capital in international bank mergers and acquisitions

When investigating the role of regulatory capital in bank mergers and acquisitions (M&As) we finds that US targets are better capitalized than their acquirers and non-acquired peers and that US banks maintain higher capital levels than European banks. Thus, US banks strategically raise their capital levels to avoid regulatory scrutiny. Furthermore, more value is created for targets with high excess capital and in M&As involving targets with considerably higher excess-capital ratios than their acquirers. Thus, the excess regulatory capital hypothesis is supported. Finally, market prices reflect the influence that capital has on the probability of the merger's regulatory approval.     

对冲政策的工具选择与特别国债发行

对冲政策是目前货币政策的核心问题。外汇储备增加速度不断加快,导致因基础货币投放增加过快而引起的潜在通货膨胀不断积累,中央银行因此采取的对冲政策和采用的对冲工具关系到中国经济稳定健康的发展。财政部发行的特别国债对流动性的影响是中性的,但无疑为中央银行提供了一个有效的对冲工具。     

地方政府帮助地方银行改善经营绩效了吗?--基于“地方保护”和“行政干预”的视角

本文检验了地方政府行为对地方银行经营绩效的影响,发现:(1)"地方保护"具有"保护之手"作用,"行政干预"具有"良性引导"作用,二者有利于降低地方银行的盈利波动性、提升地方银行的运营稳健性。(2)对于资产规模较小的银行、未设立省外分行的银行,"地方保护"和"行政干预"的积极影响较大;对于高技术产业投资比较活跃的地区,"地方保护"和"行政干预"的积极影响较大。(3)当省内经济增长率领先于全国水平时,"地方保护"和"行政干预"依然发挥积极作用;然而,当省内经济增长率落后于全国水平时,"地方保护"会产生"约束之手"作用,"行政干预"会产生"恶性引导"作用,二者反而会加剧地方银行的盈利波动性、降低地方银行的运营稳健性。     

宏观审慎政策如何影响企业金融化?

本文分析了宏观审慎政策对企业金融化的影响及其传导机制,研究发现,宏观审慎政策通过限制银行信贷影响企业从事投资活动的资金来源,进而抑制企业的金融投资。这一过程可以概括为"宏观审慎政策-银行信贷-企业金融化"。本文以2000-2016年沪深两市A股非金融行业上市公司的年度财务数据为样本,进行实证分析,结果表明,宏观审慎政策能够显著降低非金融企业的金融投资增长率,有利于抑制企业金融化趋势,回归主营业务,避免经济脱实向虚。考察不同的宏观审慎工具,本文发现,相比于准备金要求,贷款价值比工具对降低企业金融投资增长率的作用更显著。本文通过中介效应检验,验证了银行信贷是宏观审慎政策影响企业金融化的部分中介变量,其中介效应在总效应中占比约为20%。     

媒体报道的信息中介作用:来自我国银行授信的证据

本文基于中国上市公司的媒体报道数据,实证检验了媒体报道对企业获取银行授信的影响。研究发现,在整体上,新闻媒体发挥了重要的信息中介作用;媒体关注度越高、正面报道倾向越强,企业越容易获取银行授信。进一步研究表明,媒体报道对银行授信的作用主要存在于非国有企业、市场化程度高的地区和资产负债率高的企业中;媒体报道对银行授信的影响存在一定的中长期效应;与负面报道相比,媒体正面报道在银行授信中的作用更为显著。本文不仅丰富了媒体报道与银行授信领域的研究,而且为新闻媒体信息中介作用的有效发挥提供了政策启示。     

金融开放与银行风险承担的异质性研究——基于98个国家的实证分析

金融开放是加剧银行业风险还是分散风险,是颇具争议的研究课题。本文借助Gygli et al.(2018)的金融开放指标,应用1999-2016年98个国家的跨国数据,检验了金融开放和银行风险承担的长期均衡和短期关系。从长期均衡关系来看,金融开放显著地提高了银行抵御风险能力,具有长期"促进效应";从短期关系来看,金融开放则存在一定"风险效应"①。进一步研究发现,短期"风险效应"与外资银行资产占比不存在关联,而与市场制度环境显著相关,即完善的制度环境有助于弱化"风险效应"。结合中国实际情况,文章支持"以开放促改革"的观点,强调完善市场制度环境的重要性,为政策制定者提供实证依据。     

基于自愿准备金制度的利率走廊调控模式研究

近年来,很多西方国家的中央银行采用了利率走廊调控框架,以此来调控和实现政策目标利率.但在基于零准备金制度下的利率走廊调控框架中,中央银行很难保证商业银行等市场主体的流动性供求决策面临对称的机会成本,因此会影响利率走廊的实际调控效果;而相比之下,在基于自愿准备金制度的利率走廊调控框架下,有效对称的机会成本设计使得市场主体的储备需求曲线更富有弹性,从而保证中央银行能够顺利实现其调控目的.     

Intra- and inter-country bank branch assessment using DEA

Increasingly globalized financial markets with considerable activity in the multinational sector have created the need to understand inter-country bank branch performance. This topic is relatively unstudied, primarily due to the immense difficulty encountered in gathering reliable data. Fortunately, we have been able to obtain data on a group of banks operating in one geographical market area, but in different countries. In this paper we critically assess bank branch profitability and productivity in seven national branch networks owned and operated by a multi-national financial services corporation. The corporate head office (owner) imposes its management philosophy equally on all of its subsidiaries, thus removing executive managerial and corporate disparity. Results suggest that countries in which branch performance is quite consistent amongst domestic branches are less productive and less profitable when compared to other countries that have more disparity in their efficiency scores. In addition, we discovered that, surprisingly, branches do not have to be productive in order to be profitable and this led us to somewhat of a major breakthrough in inter-country branch analysis. Significant managerial advice may be derived from these results vis-à-vis trans-national benchmarking and opportunity for performance improvements both at the branch level and nationally as well.

当前全球中央银行研究的若干重点问题

国际金融危机以来,世界经济形势发生了复杂而深远的变化,一些影响长期化的新现象、新问题、新概念不断涌现。作为全球重要的宏观经济研究力量,各国中央银行纷纷着手对后危机时代的新理念、新规律展开深入研究,并努力进行政策性的探索。本文重点讨论当前全球中央银行比较关注的三大问题:一是负利率政策的逻辑与效果;二是全球稳定币的宏观政策挑战;三是气候变化导致的宏观金融风险。现有宏观理论研究存在的不足及政策实践面临的新问题,对研究工作者而言,既是重大挑战,也是难得的历史性机遇。应立足中国国情,放眼全球百年变局,密切跟踪极具未来性的热点问题和理论前沿并将其科学应用于我国高质量发展时代的政策实践。     

Implications of Basel II for Different Bank Ownership Patterns in Europe

This paper explains that Basel II has different implications for stakeholder-owned (mutual) and stockholder banks in the European Union. Some strategic paths for stakeholder-owned banks are proposed as a response to the Stockholder Value Maximization goals Basel II implicitly advances. Even though empirical evidence indicates that capital strength and risk-taking exposures do not differ across bank ownership structures, SME lending and other characteristic specializations of stakeholder banks promise to generate high capital charges. However, improved corporate-governance practices and cooperative securitization and risk-management activities can reduce the compliance costs and risk-taking constraints mutual banks might experience from shifting to a Stakeholder Value Maximization Model. For all EU banks irrespective of their ownership structure, the analysis stresses that establishing an incentive-compatible cross-country safety-net scheme poses a critical challenge.