商业银行国有股权绩效探析

对“国有股权是否需要退出商业银行”问题的回答,将直接影响到国有商业银行的命运、前途与未来,影响到政府对国有商业银行的战略决策,甚至影响到一国(地区)社会经济的发展和稳定。因此,这是一个需要谨慎对待的难题。本文从商业银行国有股权宏观绩效和微观绩效指标的界定入手,通过对海外商业银行国有股权边界变迁价值的数据分析,认为商业银行国有股权边界缩减对银行金融绩效的提升有一定的正效应。     

商业银行参与PE业务的现状、问题及策略建议

在后危机时代,我国商业银行应积极参与PE业务,实现支持经济可持续增长与拓宽盈利渠道的双赢。现阶段我国商业银行参与PE业务的基本路径可概括为:迂回直投模式、合作模式与间接模式。从外部环境看,我国PE市场发展的税收和政策安排还不够完善,资本市场为PE提供的退出通道较为狭窄,交易透明度有待进一步提高等;而商业银行内部也存在着风险管理、人才筛选等方面的难题。我国商业银行渐进拓展PE业务应制定严格的风险控制导向的业务监督体系和运营操作流程;积极引进和培养专业人才;选择合适的参与方式、投资阶段、投资产业与投资地域等。     

Predictability in Consumption Growth and Equity Returns: A Bayesian Investigation

We use a Bayesian method to estimate a consumption-based asset pricing model featuring long-run risks. Although the model is generally consistent with consumption and dividend growth moments in annual data, the conditional mean of consumption growth (a latent process) is not persistent enough to satisfy the restriction that the price-dividend ratio be an affine function of the latent process. The model also requires relatively high intertemporal elasticity of substitution to match the low volatility of the risk-free return. These two restrictions lead to the equity volatility puzzle. The model accounts for only 50% of the total variation in asset returns.     

金融危机下中美保险公司Beta系数的实证研究

2007年末爆发的次贷危机对美国以及全世界的经济造成了巨大影响。作为现代金融体系重要组成部分的保险行业也受到了前所未有的冲击。以Cummins(1991)的简化保险公司模型为基础,通过对保险公司利润两大组成部分的比较,论文说明了危机如何改变保险公司的风险特征。对中美两国保险行业相关数据及Beta系数的实证研究,进一步验证了金融危机对两国保险行业的不同影响,揭示出合理的保险公司收益结构对于保险公司持续稳健经营的重要性。     

上市公司实施股权激励存在的问题探析

自《上市公司股权激励管理办法(试行)》(2006)出台以来,截至2009年5月22日,我国共有136家上市公司推出了股权激励方案。由于我国对公司管理层进行股权激励尚处于探索阶段,在实施股权激励过程中不可避免地存在一些问题。本文以中小企业板推出股权激励预案的上市公司为样本,分析了上市公司实施股权激励过程中出现的若干问题,并提出相关对策。     

定向增发公司盈余管理研究

文章按照定向增发公司发行对象分组,分析了各组公司在发行前后共计11个季度的盈余管理情况。发现公司只对大股东发行股份时,发行前没有操纵利润,但发行后存在较强盈余管理;当机构投资者参与定向增发时,企业在发行前后都进行了盈余管理,发行后盈余管理的程度有所降低。机构投资者参与定向增发的程度越大,企业在增发过程中盈余管理的持续性和程度都越大。盈余管理的动机可能是为了保证企业承诺业绩的实现。     

Does competition from new equity mitigate bank rent extraction? Insights from Japanese data

Previous research shows that bank information production mitigates asymmetric information problems. However, this literature has ignored the concern that firms with better growth prospects are more vulnerable to bank rent extraction. This paper points out that funding competition from new equity as an effective natural mechanism solves this important concern. Using Japanese data from 1983 to 1997, we show that the relationship between loan-to-debt ratio and growth, while starting significantly negative (consistent with holdup theory), turns significantly positive towards the high end of the growth spectrum. We confirm that high-growth firms raise more new equity than do low growth firms and use more equity relative to bonds in external finance. This is consistent with a generalized Myers–Majluf framework. These results suggest that for high growth firms, when competition from public debt lessens due to increased growth-based valuations, competition from new equity steps in to restrain bank rent extraction.     

Stock splits, trading continuity, and the cost of equity capital

We hypothesize that managers use stock splits to attract more uninformed trading so that market makers can provide liquidity services at lower costs, thereby increasing investors’ trading propensity and improving liquidity. We examine a large sample of stock splits and find that, consistent with our hypothesis, the incidence of no trading decreases and liquidity risk is lower following splits, implying a decline in latent trading costs and a reduced cost of equity capital. Further, split announcement returns are correlated with the improvements in both liquidity levels and liquidity risk. Our analysis suggests nontrivial economic benefits from liquidity improvements, with less liquid firms benefiting more from stock splits.     

中国证券投资基金的最优套利策略研究

在基金经理人效用函数为指数效用函数、投资基金价格服从几何布朗运动的条件下，基于市场存在交易费用及投资期限无限情况下的最优套利策略，就各参数对最优交易策略的影响进行分析，并对在无风险资产和多种风险资产之间进行资产组合。     

晋江鞋业集群“造牌运动”的原因及启示

本文将晋江鞋业造牌运动的原因归纳为四个方面,分别是:附加值说、产业组织形态说、地区文化说和政府产业政策说。得出的启示是,晋江鞋业集群今后要把品牌塑造和技术研发相结合;要注重企业间的协作与互动,避免同质化的恶性竞争;要将品牌与晋江当地文化相结合,加强集群的本地根植性;在发挥政府在集群发展中的积极作用的同时,应该注意避免政府行为所可能带来的负效应。