农户分层信贷渠道选择行为及其影响因素分析——基于农村二元金融结构的实证研究

本文基于来自中国12省市的农户家庭信贷的微观数据,运用Probit模型实证分析了在正规金融渠道与非正规金融渠道相互独立和相互影响下,高收入与低收入农户信贷渠道选择行为的影响因素,解析中国农村二元金融结构特征下的农户分层信贷渠道选择行为。本文研究发现,家庭特征、经济特征以及金融生态环境对高收入与低收入农户信贷渠道的选择行为有着不同的影响。基于经验研究的基础上,提出中国二元金融结构特征下的深化农村金融改革的政策建议。     

一种基于CMA和DDLMS算法的双模式盲均衡算法

为进一步改进盲均衡算法收敛速度慢、稳态误差大、计算复杂度高等问题,提出一种切换模式和加权模式联合CMA(Constant Modulus Algorithm)+DDLMS(Direct Decision Least Mean Square)双模式盲均衡算法。综合切换双模式盲均衡算法和加权双模式盲均衡算法的优缺点,对切换、加权模式联合的CMA+DDLMS双模式盲均衡算法进行仿真。在不同信噪比条件下,对CMA算法、MCMA(Modified CMA)算法、DDLMS算法和CMA+DDLMS双模式盲均衡算法进行仿真,结果表明,所提算法收敛速度快,约为600个符号;稳态误差小,约为0.1;误码率小,在信噪比为25 dB时,误码率约为10-6。该算法可广泛应用于无线通信、光通信、声呐和雷达等众多领域。     

Regime switching models for the Mexican peso

The Mexican peso has shown long periods of tranquility that suddenly give rise to short volatile periods. We characterize this exchange rate process by estimating a series of regime switching regressions and comparing the different specifications as pioneered by Meese and Rogoff [J. Int. Econ. 14 (1983) 3]. We find evidence for two clearly identified regimes: one with an appreciating trend and low volatility, and another with large depreciations and high volatility. We use the estimated model to explain the bias implied in the peso forward market. Finally, we show that duration dependence or fundamentally driven transition probabilities do not improve the model's forecasting power.     

The Effect of Market Regimes on Style Allocation

We analyse time-varying risk premia and the implications for portfolio choice. Using Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods, we estimate a multivariate regime-switching model for the Carhart (1997) four-factor model. We find two clearly separable regimes with different mean returns, volatilities, and correlations. In the High-Variance Regime, only value stocks deliver a good performance, whereas in the Low-Variance Regime, the market portfolio and momentum stocks promise high returns. Regime-switching induces investors to change their portfolio style over time depending on the investment horizon, the risk aversion, and the prevailing regime. Value investing seems to be a rational strategy in the High-Variance Regime, momentum investing in the Low-Variance Regime. An empirical out-of-sample backtest indicates that this switching strategy can be profitable, but the overall forecasting ability for the regime-switching model seems to be weak compared to the iid model.     

小仰角下移动卫星通信性能的改善及仿真

移动卫星通信系统为功率受限系统,相对地面移动通信而言,其链路余量较小,而且由于多径及遮蔽效应,当系统工作在小仰角时,其信号衰落可达到30dB,这对系统的设计提出了严峻的挑战。本文研究了信道编码和交织技术在移动卫星通信系统中的应用。通过仿真,得到了应用该技术对不同仰角特别是小仰角条件下系统性能的改善程度。同时,在研究信道相关的基础上,给出了交织相关参数的设计准则。     

一种新型的基于神经网络的无线信道模型

本文提出了一种使用神经网络来建模和仿真无线通信信道的方法。由于神经网络优异的学习特性,文中使用神经网络对无线信道的输入输出响应进行建模,讨论了建模的方法,给出了仿真的结果,分析了遇到的问题和解决方法,并进一步阐述了在实际的无线信道环境中使用神经网络建模的优越性。     

我国医疗保健行业股指收益率波动特征与杠杆效应

本文运用SWARCH模型分析了我国医疗保健板块收益率的波动,并将医疗保健板块收益率与上证综指、深证成指收益率的SWARCH模型的估计结果进行比较,得出以下结论:医疗保健指数收益率序列呈现出低、中、高三种波动状态,样本区间主要分布于中波动状态,低波动状态的平均持续期最长、中波动状态的平均持续期居中、高波动状态的平均持续期最短,医疗保健指数收益率波动杠杆效应显著;我国股市医疗保健板块收益率波动状态之间的差异高于沪深综指波动状态的差异,医疗保健指数收益率与沪深综指收益率区制转移趋同,但存在着细微差异;医疗保健指数收益率各区制间转移相对频繁,每种波动状态的平均持续期较短,股市医疗保健板块收益率对新信息的反应更为敏感。     

Game-Theoretic Coordination Mechanisms in Distribution Channels: Integration and Extensions for Models Without Competition

A significant game-theoretic literature on the coordination of distribution channels has developed over the past three decades. We provide an extensive analysis of an important subset of this literature, channels without competition. We review four major models that build on the initial work of Jeuland and Shugan (1983) – who developed a quantity-discount schedule that induces channel members to set price and non-price, marketing-mix variables (MM-variables) at channel-coordinating levels. Moorthy (1987) criticized their schedule's complexity, arguing for a simpler wholesale contract that induces coordination by avoiding double marginalization.     

卫星通信站极化隔离度下降的排查及解决方法

针对卫星通信站接收交叉极化隔离度下降的问题,首先利用Matlab软件绘制了隔离度与 极化角、线圆转换器偏差的关系曲线,然后通过实测值和公式相比较,推导出偏差理论值。 最后,根据推导出的结论,通过工程实践解决了极化隔离度下降的问题,调整后测试的结果 也验证了该方法的可行性。     

海上遇险搜救综合通信系统的设计与实现

为了提高我国海上搜救应急反应的调度、指挥能力,利用现代通信、计算机、计算机 电信合成（CTI）等技术,实现了海上遇险搜救综合通信系统。该系统采用程控调度交换和 无线电台适配的方案,使用无线电台适配器将无线通信转换为有线通信,再通过程控交换机 将各级海上搜救中各类卫星、语音电话、视频系统等异构终端综合互联,实现有线通信系统 与无线通信系统的无缝连接,从而为值班和搜救指挥人员提供专业、便捷的通信、操作手段 ,提高指挥判断的准确性和效率。