How to invest over the life cycle: Insights from theory

We analyse the state of the art in the field of life cycle portfolio choice, a recent strand of the literature on intertemporal portfolio selection. Life cycle models are designed to identify optimal savings and portfolio policies over the lifetime of investors. They can help to improve pension schemes by showing how these could be specifically tailored to the individual employee’s circumstances to overcome the ‘one-size-fits-all’ philosophy still prevailing in parts of the mandatory retirement savings system. To facilitate comparison, we first describe set-up, solution method and characteristic results for a basic model and then derive a general framework to classify existing contributions. We highlight the models’ strengths and weaknesses and assess their ability to resolve existing portfolio puzzles. Lessons from the literature are summarized and promising areas for further research identified. JEL classifications G11, D14, D91, H55     

关于期权薪酬会计计量方法的思考

股票期权薪酬计量方法的选用一直以来都存在争议,采用不同的计量方法会直接影响到股票期权会计信息的真实性和透明度。本文通过对分别运用内在价值法、最小价值法和公允价值法中的B-S模型和二叉树模型对期权薪酬价值的计算分析,来说明何种计量方法能最有效地实现期权薪酬核算的目的。     

知识型企业链级双轨激励模型探究

知识型企业组织结构依然存在的等级层次,不同层级的人需要不同而应采取异质激励,同一层级的人也因个体的差异也需要异质激励,而异质激励总的来说都归于物质轨道与精神轨道.据此构建出知识型企业链级双轨激励模型.     

Monetary and Fiscal Policy Interactions in the Euro Area

The problem of monetary and fiscal policy interactions is an important issue for the euro area, since the individual member states of the EMU are responsible for their fiscal policies but monetary policy is pursued by a single monetary authority, the ECB. This paper is concerned with empirical evidence on monetary and fiscal policy interactions in the euro area. We first explore fiscal regimes with a VAR model and find empirical evidence that a non-Ricardian fiscal policy has been pursued in both France and Germany. As an example, we then study how one member state of the EMU, namely, Italy, is responding to the common monetary policy with its fiscal policy and find that Italian fiscal policy seemed to be counteractive to the common monetary policy between 1979 and 1998. In order to study monetary and fiscal policy interactions in a more general way, we explore time-varying interactions by estimating a State-Space model with Markov-switching for some Euro-area countries. There appear to be some regime changes in monetary and fiscal policy interactions in France and Germany, but the interactions between the two policies are not strong. Moreover, the two policies have not been accommodative but counteractive to each other. Finally we explore forward-looking behavior in policy interactions and find that expectations do not seem to have played an important role in the policy designs.     

利率风险管理的重要免疫工具:持续期模型

利率市场化进程的加快凸现利率风险管理的重要性和迫切性.作为一种利率风险管理的重要免疫工具,持续期配比策略在近些年来有了较大发展.本文在深入探讨Macaulay持续期的三种重要含义的基础上,详细地分析和比较了近期提出的几种主要持续期即:方向持续期、 部分持续期和近似持续期,最后简单讨论了将这些持续期模型及其免疫策略用于中国市场应注意的问题.     

An effective going concern prediction model for the sustainability of enterprises and capital market development

The purpose of this study is to construct a two-stage effective and innovative going concern prediction model to predict going concern doubt for the sustainability of enterprises and capital market development. Samples of this study are the companies listed on the Taiwan Stock Exchange or the Taipei Exchange, totalling 196 companies and including 49 companies with going concern doubt and 147 normal companies (with no going concern doubt). The data are taken from the Taiwan Economic Journal (TEJ) and the Market Observation Post System during the period from 2001 to 2016 (totalling 16 years). This study adopts a two-stage way to construct the going concern prediction models. In Stage I, the traditional statistical method of stepwise regression (SR) and the data mining technique artificial neural network (ANN) are applied to select the important variables. In Stage II, two decision tree algorithms (data mining techniques): classification and regression tree (CART) and C5.0 are used to establish the prediction models. The results show that the SR + CART model has the highest going concern prediction accuracy, with an overall accuracy of 87.42%.     

绩效评估系统模式研究：组织公正视角

绩效评估中应该考虑的公正类型有四种：系统程序公正、评价者程序公正、互动公正和分配公正。典型的绩效评估系统包括系统方案设计、绩效计划制定、绩效沟通和辅导、绩效评价、绩效反馈面谈和评估结果运用。公正接触点发生在绩效评估的系统设计和流程的所有阶段，代表了员工对绩效评估系统中各要素的期望。本文结合绩效评估中的公正类型、评估流程以及公正接触点的概念构建了公正绩效评估系统模式。     

西部地区发展循环经济的思考

循环经济充分体现了科学发展观的要求,是新型工业化的重要载体,是转变经济发展模式、建立资源节约型、环境友好型社会和构建社会主义和谐社会的有效途径。西部地区在推进全面建设小康社会和构建社会主义和谐社会的进程中,必须根据西部实际,深化发展循环经济的理论与实践。本文分析并总结了现阶段的循环经济理论模型和实践模式,指出西部地区发展循环经济的理论模型是循环经济建设与生态环境建设互动式发展模型。     

成都创建国家环境保护模范城市的启示

成都市创建国家环境保护模范城市活动进一步改善了城市创业环境和人居环境,全面提升了城市服务功能与综合价值,提高了公众生活质量,使成都市初步走上了环境和经济相互促进,人与自然和谐共生的可持续发展道路,呈现出经济快速发展、环境清洁优美、生态良性循环的良好态势。从成都创建国家环境保护模范城市实践中,我们可以得到以下启示:创建国家环境保护模范城市是构建和谐社会,落实科学发展观,全面建设小康社会,提高城市综合实力与城市竞争力的前提;创建国家环境保护模范城市必须承担发展经济和保护生态的双重任务,并且需要建立持续增长的投入机制;国家环境保护模范城市建设更需要注重生态型社会的建设。     

国有产权转让中的机制设计--基于企业职工的合约选择

在国有产权转让过程中,关键是要克服国有产权本身所具有的不利于进行市场交易的特性,使其交易更符合市场原则。市场本身就是由一个个的合约所构成,是否选择签约及合约的方式是由每个参与者自己作出的。因此,国有产权转让的机制设计就是要尽量使相关的利益主体有权作出对自己有利的合约选择,并对自己的行为负责。