关于期权薪酬会计计量方法的思考

股票期权薪酬计量方法的选用一直以来都存在争议,采用不同的计量方法会直接影响到股票期权会计信息的真实性和透明度。本文通过对分别运用内在价值法、最小价值法和公允价值法中的B-S模型和二叉树模型对期权薪酬价值的计算分析,来说明何种计量方法能最有效地实现期权薪酬核算的目的。     

中国地区经济增长差距的成因分析

通过综合现有的经济理论并结合中国经济实际，建立储蓄增长、投资增长与经济增长关系的理论模型，同时采用Ｇｒａｎｇｅｒ因果检测检验各地区三者间关系，并与模型结论比较。结果表明，东部地区的三者关系与模型结论基本一致，即投资增长、经济增长及储蓄增长间存在良性循环；而中部地区投资效率低下、西部地区资本供给不足，致使中西部经济中的三者良性循环被迫中断或被低水平恶性循环取代，从而导致地区经济差距急剧扩大。     

知识型企业链级双轨激励模型探究

知识型企业组织结构依然存在的等级层次,不同层级的人需要不同而应采取异质激励,同一层级的人也因个体的差异也需要异质激励,而异质激励总的来说都归于物质轨道与精神轨道.据此构建出知识型企业链级双轨激励模型.     

Monetary and Fiscal Policy Interactions in the Euro Area

The problem of monetary and fiscal policy interactions is an important issue for the euro area, since the individual member states of the EMU are responsible for their fiscal policies but monetary policy is pursued by a single monetary authority, the ECB. This paper is concerned with empirical evidence on monetary and fiscal policy interactions in the euro area. We first explore fiscal regimes with a VAR model and find empirical evidence that a non-Ricardian fiscal policy has been pursued in both France and Germany. As an example, we then study how one member state of the EMU, namely, Italy, is responding to the common monetary policy with its fiscal policy and find that Italian fiscal policy seemed to be counteractive to the common monetary policy between 1979 and 1998. In order to study monetary and fiscal policy interactions in a more general way, we explore time-varying interactions by estimating a State-Space model with Markov-switching for some Euro-area countries. There appear to be some regime changes in monetary and fiscal policy interactions in France and Germany, but the interactions between the two policies are not strong. Moreover, the two policies have not been accommodative but counteractive to each other. Finally we explore forward-looking behavior in policy interactions and find that expectations do not seem to have played an important role in the policy designs.     

杉木——籽西瓜套种模式的生物生产力及收益的研究

8年(1985～1992年)的试验和大面积(1356ha)应用结果表明,在杉木连栽林地套种籽西瓜对杉木幼林生长有显著的促进作用,套种林地的生物生产力和材积生产力分别比不套种林地提高95.75％～213.94％和128.03％～339.09％。模式的短期收益十分显著,平均每公顷纯收入达2627元,达到了长短结合,以短养长,以短促长的经营目的。具有广阔的推广应用前景。     

利率风险管理的重要免疫工具:持续期模型

利率市场化进程的加快凸现利率风险管理的重要性和迫切性.作为一种利率风险管理的重要免疫工具,持续期配比策略在近些年来有了较大发展.本文在深入探讨Macaulay持续期的三种重要含义的基础上,详细地分析和比较了近期提出的几种主要持续期即:方向持续期、 部分持续期和近似持续期,最后简单讨论了将这些持续期模型及其免疫策略用于中国市场应注意的问题.     

基于灰色系统理论的旅游客源预测模型--以中国入境旅游客源为例

本文基于灰色系统理论,以中国1978年以来入境客源为例,建构了旅游客源预测的灰色模型,并与常用的线性模型的预测精度进行了定量对比。所得基本结论为:①旅游系统是灰色系统,灰色系统理论是研究旅游现象的有力工具;②中国入境客源灰色GM(1,1)模型的预测精度高于线性模型;③就灰色预测而言,如果原始数据列较长(例如21年),对原始数据进行平滑处理所得预测模型精度较高,而对原始数据进行取自然对数的处理所得模型预测精度较低;如果原始数据列较短(例如5年),对原始数据进行取自然对数的预处理所得模型预测精度较高。本文所得结论对其他旅游序列预测应该具有一定的借鉴与参考价值。     

An effective going concern prediction model for the sustainability of enterprises and capital market development

The purpose of this study is to construct a two-stage effective and innovative going concern prediction model to predict going concern doubt for the sustainability of enterprises and capital market development. Samples of this study are the companies listed on the Taiwan Stock Exchange or the Taipei Exchange, totalling 196 companies and including 49 companies with going concern doubt and 147 normal companies (with no going concern doubt). The data are taken from the Taiwan Economic Journal (TEJ) and the Market Observation Post System during the period from 2001 to 2016 (totalling 16 years). This study adopts a two-stage way to construct the going concern prediction models. In Stage I, the traditional statistical method of stepwise regression (SR) and the data mining technique artificial neural network (ANN) are applied to select the important variables. In Stage II, two decision tree algorithms (data mining techniques): classification and regression tree (CART) and C5.0 are used to establish the prediction models. The results show that the SR + CART model has the highest going concern prediction accuracy, with an overall accuracy of 87.42%.     

亚丁景区旅游开发SWOT分析及开发模式探析

在西部大开发战略实施过程中，旅游开发被视为第三产业中的支柱产业来发展，而位于四川西南部的“香格里拉之魂”——稻城亚丁景区旅游开发正处于这一轮开发的浪潮之中。作者利用目前国际上流行的战略分析方法——SWOT分析法对亚丁景区旅游开发条件进行了分析，综合当今国内外旅游资源开发的成功经验，试提出一种旅游开发模式，作为学术上的探讨。     

绩效评估系统模式研究：组织公正视角

绩效评估中应该考虑的公正类型有四种：系统程序公正、评价者程序公正、互动公正和分配公正。典型的绩效评估系统包括系统方案设计、绩效计划制定、绩效沟通和辅导、绩效评价、绩效反馈面谈和评估结果运用。公正接触点发生在绩效评估的系统设计和流程的所有阶段，代表了员工对绩效评估系统中各要素的期望。本文结合绩效评估中的公正类型、评估流程以及公正接触点的概念构建了公正绩效评估系统模式。