论无尺度网络与互联网安全

文章从系统的角度对互联网安全问题进行了分析和讨论,指出互联网是一个复杂性网络和无尺度网络。互联网的无尺度特征,应该促使我们改变制定安全策略的思路,加强对无尺度网络的研究,对互联网安全问题具有重要的指导意义。     

市场学习能力、技术复杂性与新产品开发绩效关系研究

在开放式创新背景下,市场学习能力与新产品开发绩效的关系越来越受到关注。基于动态能力理论的“市场学习能力-产品开发流程能力-新产品开发绩效”理论框架展开实证分析,结果表明：产品开发流程能力在市场学习能力与新产品开发绩效间发挥中介作用;技术复杂性提高会强化市场学习能力对产品开发流程效率的促进作用、抑制市场知识探索对产品开发流程反应性的促进作用。     

创新驱动战略下省域协同创新合作水平比较研究

鉴于创新要素流动受到省域户籍、财政等政策的影响,以省域为研究载体,研究省域协同创新主体间互动可以动态反映在同一基础条件下创新驱动经济的协同过程。以复合系统理论为基础,构建了包含科技服务子系统的协同创新联盟复合系统理论模型,基于湖北、湖南和江西三省2009-2014年面板数据,运用复合系统协同度模型对协同创新联盟复合系统进行实证分析。通过比较各省复合系统中子系统有序度、协同度以及各个协同创新子系统有序度,发现不同地区创新优势不同,各地协同创新联盟核心创新主体应有差异;政府是否参与协同创新应有所选择;湖北省复合系统应深化科技服务子系统下层子系统与高校子系统、科研机构子系统间联系;江西省复合系统应以产业子系统为突破口,形成多向发展的可能。     

Errors, robustness, and the fourth quadrant

The paper presents evidence that econometric techniques based on variance–L² norm–are flawed and do not replicate. The result is un-computability of the role of tail events. The paper proposes a methodology to calibrate decisions to the degree (and computability) of forecast error. It classifies decision payoffs in two types: simple (true/false or binary) and complex (higher moments); and randomness into type-1 (thin tails) and type-2 (true fat tails), and shows the errors for the estimation of small probability payoffs for type 2 randomness. The fourth quadrant is where payoffs are complex with type-2 randomness. We propose solutions to mitigate the effect of the fourth quadrant, based on the nature of complex systems.     

Complexity and financial stability in a large random economy

I study the limit of a large random economy, in the ideal case of perfect competition, where full information is available to all market participants, and where a set of consumers invests in financial instruments engineered by banks in order to optimize their future consumption. This provides a picture of how unregulated financial innovation pushes an economy towards the ideal limit of complete markets. Hedging new products with existing products allows financial institutions to reduce the associated risk and hence the risk premium. This has the expected consequence that markets, under such ideal conditions, converge to market completeness as the repertoire of financial instruments expands. As markets approach completeness, however, two ‘unintended consequences’ also arise: (i) equilibrium portfolios develop a marked susceptibility to idiosyncratic shocks and/or parameter uncertainty and (ii) hedging engenders divergent trading volumes in the interbank market. Combining these suggests an inverse relation between financial stability and the size of the financial sector, which can be quantified within the present framework. These results suggest that even under perfect competition and symmetric information, the pursuit of market efficiency—in terms of completeness—may erode financial stability. The proliferation of financial instruments exacerbates the effects of market imperfections and, in order to prevent an escalation of perverse effects, markets may require institutional structures that become more and more substantial as their complexity expands.     

基于Lotka-Volterra模型的中国股票市场非线性特征—— 一个生态学的视角

股票市场是一个非线性的复杂动力系统,将生态学的多种群Lotka-Volterra竞争模型进行改进后引入到股票市场,通过系统仿真,模拟中国股市运行,得出了类似于股票市场运行的非线性特征,为研究股市复杂性提供了新思路。     

Understanding the factors affecting consumers’ behaviour when purchasing refurbished products: A chaordic perspective

This paper seeks to develop an integrated conceptual framework to explain the conditions that lead to consumers' behaviour when purchasing refurbished products. Innovative methodology was used, including “fuzzy-set qualitative comparative analysis” (FsQCA), to explore the factors affecting consumers’ behaviour in this regard. Data gathered from 472 consumers were used to test the suggested model. The results revealed that ethical constructs (i.e., “moral obligation, moral accountability, moral outrage”), threat and coping appraisal variables (i.e., perceived severity, perceived venerability), and value are key drivers of the purchase of refurbished products. The findings also revealed that moral obligation, moral outrage, perceived venerability, egoistic value, and attitude are necessary to stimulate purchase behaviour, while perceived severity, rewards, perceived cost, and altruistic value, although sufficient, are not in themselves necessary. This study offers useful implications for retailers, and re-manufacturers, which may help to enhance their marketing strategies and policies.     

Stratography: The art of conceptualizing and communicating strategy

Representations of strategy tend to either be so generalized as to have little real meaning for employees, or go into such detail that people struggle to understand what is really required. The problem is this: a strategy not understood by those charged with implementing it is as bad as, or even worse than, not having a strategy at all. In 1983, a classic Business Horizons article by Karl Weick highlighted the importance of using graphical approaches to overcome strategy relation challenges; however, since then, little has been written regarding how managers might accomplish this successfully. Our article argues that individualized drawings of strategy, or what we term ‘stratography,’ could enable more effective conceptualization and communication of the strategic complexity that organizations face and the paths they are seeking to follow. Herein, we employ the latest thinking in cartography, educational philosophy, optics, graphic design, and military protocol to outline seven good practices of effective stratography.     

Examining the role of store design on consumers’ cross-sectional perceptions of retail brand loyalty

This paper compares new and established store design prototypes of the same retailer to examine the role of consumers’ cross-sectional perceptions of retail brand loyalty. In-store surveys were administered to capture consumers’ store-level perceptions towards a new store prototype and an older established prototype of the same fast fashion retailer. The data was subjected to multi-group analyzes with structural equations modeling. The findings suggest that store novelty and complexity promote both store design pleasure and retail brand loyalty outcomes. The different store designs do not, however, account for differences in brand loyalty perceptions at the overall retailer level when multi-group comparisons of both store designs are made. Consumers of newer store designs are found to possess a heightened sensitivity to price perceptions. Managerial implications of the effects of store novelty and complexity on retail brand loyalty are also presented.     

Conceptual modelling for supply chain inventory visibility

Visibility becomes increasingly important for companies that seek to globalise their supply chains due to the increasing complexity involved. This paper contributes to the research on Supply Chain Visibility (SCV) from an inventory perspective with a focus on inventory visibility, which is a critical part of SCV. The characteristics of Inventory Visibility (IV), which are inherited from SCV, are conceptually analysed. A theoretical model in terms of atom, single, and compound visibility, is developed based on the characteristics identified. A method for objectively measuring IV is presented together with a case example to demonstrate its convenience and usefulness.