我国消费信贷中个人信用制度建设的思考

消费信贷作为刺激消费、扩大内需、推动生产、拉动经济的重要举措,促进了我国消费市场的发展,也推动了个人信用制度建设的发展,但消费信贷中的违约风险也随之加大。本文根据我国消费信贷中个人信用制度的发展现状,围绕消费信贷来分析信用制度缺失对消费信贷带来的风险,从而提出了建立和完善行之有效的个人信用制度的政策建议。     

Early warning indicators? The effect of consumer and investor sentiments on the restaurant industry

This study looks at the influence of cyclical fluctuations of the consumer confidence index (CCI) and the volatility index (VIX) as early-warning indicators of the variations in restaurant performance. The industry has traditionally focused on past data and on microeconomic influences to anticipate its future performance, a procedure that does not consider possible cyclical fluctuations in restaurant performance metrics. These fluctuations are driven by sentiments of consumers and investors. The study uses the cyclical component of the applied data, followed by unit root and cointegration testing, with subsequent application of the Limited Information Maximum Likelihood technique. The results show both indicators have an effect on restaurant performance, where VIX has an impact on the current, expected, and overall restaurant performance, while the CCI’s influence is only partial (current performance). Policy-makers and planners could benefit from anticipating features of indicators to assess and steer the future performance of the restaurant industry.     

Measuring ease of use of mobile applications in e-commerce retailing from the perspective of consumer online shopping behaviour patterns

Scientifically judging and comparing different mobile e-commerce retailing applications (apps) are essential to increase online shopping efficiency and enhance design for system improvement. In this research, the use of mobile apps in e-commerce retailing is viewed as an information operation process, and distance of information-state transition (DIT) theory is introduced to measure the “convenience” of mobile apps to obtain service information. Thus, a novel DIT-based evaluation method for the ease of use of mobile apps in e-commerce retailing from the perspective of consumer online shopping behaviour patterns is proposed. Three representative Chinese enterprises, namely, Tianmao Mall, Jingdong Mall and Suning Easy-to-buy, are chosen as study objects. Moreover, the corresponding ease-of-use indicators of three mobile apps under typical online shopping behaviour patterns are evaluated quantitatively. Results show that this research has important implications not only for online consumers but also for designers of online shopping systems.     

农村居民消费、流动性约束和消费信贷的实证研究

本文利用1978-2004年我国农村居民人均消费支出和人均可支配收入数据对农村居民消费和流动性约束之间的关系进行了实证研究。分析结果表明：我国农村居民受流动性约束的程度明显偏高；而自从我国大力发展居民个人消费信贷业以来，流动性约束水平有所下降，消费信贷的发展发挥了一定的作用。今后在我国农村地区进一步建立健全面向广大农民的消费信贷业务，对于缓解流动性约束，推动农村居民消费需求增长具有积极的意义。     

货币政策与金融形势指数FCI: 基于VAR的实证分析

为了探索资产价格在货币政策中的信息功能,经济学者们构造了金融形势指数FCI以反映未来产出与通货膨胀率的变化.常规的FCI指数包括真实短期利率、真实房地产价格指数、真实有效汇率指数和真实股权价格指数.鉴于中国货币政策的实践,本文拓展了FCI指数的概念,考察了加入真实货币供应量的FCI指数在中国货币政策传导中的信息角色.基于VAR模型的实证研究表明：FCI指数可以成为中国货币政策的重要参照系;包含真实货币供应量的FCI指数对CPI通胀率具有更好的预测力.     

城乡居民消费行为及结构演化的差异研究

转变经济发展方式、实现经济内生增长是中国经济进入“新常态”阶段最迫切需要解决的问题,而实现这一目标,最为重要的则是居民消费水平的有效提升,尤其是农村居民消费困境的破解。基于此,本文采用非线性最小二乘法(NLS)对中国城乡居民消费行为及其演化规律进行了跨时期分析,结果发现城乡居民收入与消费之间表现为明显的非线性关系,并没有完全遵循边际消费倾向递减规律。“七五”时期和“八五”时期,城乡居民边际消费随收入的增加而递增;“九五”时期及以后,城镇居民边际消费随着收入的增加而递减,农村居民边际消费则仍随收入的增加而递增。从收入结构视角看,农民边际消费仅随工资性收入和家庭经营性收入的增加而递增,而城镇居民边际消费随工资性收入、家庭经营性收入和转移性收入的增加而递减。由于农民收入增长质量较低,而且收入结构不合理,从而直接导致农民消费水平低下且结构不合理,因此,提升农民消费水平,迫切需要优化农民收入结构和消费结构。     

Corporate social responsibility: attributions,loyalty, and the mediating role of trust

This study investigates whether consumers’ perceptions of motives influence their evaluation of corporate social responsibility (CSR) efforts. The study reveals the mediating role of consumer trust in CSR evaluation frameworks; managers should monitor consumer trust, which seems to be an important subprocess regulating the effect of consumer attributions on patronage and recommendation intentions. Further, managers may allay the negative effects of profit-motivated giving by doing well on service quality perceptions. On the other hand, appropriately motivated giving continues to positively affect trust regardless of the performance of the firm on service quality provision.     

‘Up in the air’: A conceptual critique of flying addiction

The ‘flyers’ dilemma’, where an individual’s self-identity as an environmentally-responsible consumer conflicts with the environmental impacts of frequent air travel, has been shown to produce a range of negative psychological effects. Some have argued that frequent flying may represent a site of behavioural addiction, characterized by guilt, suppression and denial. While this sort of pathologisation finds parallels in other forms of excessive consumption, its application in a tourist context is problematic in terms of classification validity, attribution of negative consequences, transfer of responsibility, and tendency towards social control and domination. We argue for an alternative conceptual approach to frequent flying which elaborates the structural reproduction of the ‘flyers’ dilemma’, rather than its individual, psychological effects.     

Other consumers in service encounters: A script theoretical perspective

Hospitality service consumptions often involve sharing the service environment with other consumers. Drawing upon the Script Theory, this research provides a theoretical perspective of consumer responses to behaviors of other consumers in service encounters. The results from an experimental study provide strong support for the dual-mode consumer responses (felt emotions and displayed emotions) and for the moderating effect of psychological closeness on consumer responses. Managerial implications for training, service management and service design in hospitality businesses are also discussed.     

Price Endogeneity and Food Demand in Urban China

Price endogeneity has been ignored in previous analyses of food demand in urban China. We exploit data provided by the China National Bureau of Statistics on agricultural commodity supply shifters and use reduced‐form price equations to account for price endogeneity. Applying our unique econometric approach to the analysis of provincial‐level food demand in China, we find strong statistical evidence of price endogeneity. Models that ignore price endogeneity result in substantially biased elasticities and misleading estimates of future food demand in China.