模糊层次分析法优化BP神经网络的交通冲突预测模型

本文通过全面剖析影响交通冲突的原因,以交通流量、道路几何设计和道路环境三方面的因素建立指标层次结构体系。提出基于模糊层次分析(FAHP)法优化BP神经网络(BPNN)的预测模型,应用于交通冲突预测。     

Workload control under continuous order release

Workload control is a production planning and control concept specifically designed for complex manufacturing environments. Past research on Workload control has been essentially focused on discrete order release. This means that release of orders to the shop floor takes places on a periodic basis. Continuous order release has been somehow neglected, in spite of its apparent potential for improving system performance, including the reduction of order flow times. This paper presents a simulation study of this order release approach. The study contributes for improving the basis for setting workload norms, selecting the workload control strategy and deciding upon routing alternatives under continuous order release.     

The relationship between business diversification and productivity: considering the impact of process innovation at different corporate life cycles

This paper investigates the link between a firm's process innovation (PI) and its segment productivity at different life cycles. The results show that business diversification is negatively associated with a firm's productivity, and further reveal that a firm's PI moderates the above relationship. In addition, the corporate life cycle literature builds blocks for this study to explain that the involvement of administrative costs varies across life cycles when diversified firms get mature and bigger. Our empirical evidence indicates that the potential costs of a complex organisational structure contingent on business diversification at a firm's mature life cycle could be alleviated by the conduct of process innovation. As process innovation at different life cycles may alter managerial incentive that leads to different firm performance, the managerial implication is that diversified firms should appropriately engage in process innovation to prevent unfavourable liability from the development of their businesses.     

Modelling the implied volatility surface based on Shanghai 50ETF options

We develop a dynamic factor model to forecast the implied volatility surface (IVS) of Shanghai Stock Exchange 50ETF options. Based on the assumption that dynamic change in IVS is mean-reverting and Markovian, we use a state space model to capture the dynamics of IVS, and set the latent factors to be the Ornstein–Uhlenbeck processes. We obtain the optimal estimations of parameters using the Kalman filter algorithm. Empirical results show that our model performs better than the traditional IVS model in terms of fitting ability and prediction performance.     

Steady state adjusting trends using a data-driven local polynomial regression

Economic variables usually follow a dynamic trend pattern. However, it is difficult to estimate this trend precisely as numerous economically- and statistically-based estimation methods exist. This contribution proposes a data-driven nonparametric trend that is local polynomial, to improve arbitrary trend estimations of commonly used methods concerning the selection of the smoothing parameter and the dependence structure. An iterative plug-in (IPI) algorithm determines the bandwidth endogenously and allows a theory-based interpretation of the length of growth processes. This length of the bandwidth reflects the lengths of the steady state periods. Consequently, the bandwidth identifies the time period of stable economic conditions and can detect economic changes. To demonstrate the power of this estimation approach, an extensive simulation study is performed. Furthermore, examples using US and UK GDP data along with a guide for the optimal choice of algorithms for empirical applications are provided. This proposed method yields new insights for growth dynamics, cyclical movements and their dependence.     

Frustration-driven process improvement

When employees are empowered to continuously record their employment-related frustrations—doing so on accessible, visually prominent media—process improvement becomes upgraded to operate in a truly continuous mode. Frustrations are a superior target of process improvement in that they get at deep-seated concerns of people who have first-order process awareness and are most directly impacted by process failings. Recording frustrations not only provides a sound basis for pressing on to solutions, but it is also cathartic. The act of recording frustrations prominently on company-sanctioned media provides a positive outlet for the frustrations themselves.     

Could lean practices and process innovation enhance supply chain sustainability of small and medium‐sized enterprises?

Small and medium‐sized enterprises (SMEs) adopt lean practices (LP) to reduce waste across their organisational value chain, which helps achieve sustainability. Process innovation (PI) has also been applied through cleaner production, environmental management system, ecodesign, and so on to address both customers' needs and legislations by policymakers. Although prior studies reveal the effect of sustainable practices, LP, and PI on sustainable performance separately, less is known on the integrated effect of them on sustainability performance. Moreover, studies on mediating effect of LP and PI on sustainability performance are scant. This is significant as LP and PI are considered to be the enablers for achieving sustainability performance. This research addresses this knowledge gap. The research first theorises a model integrating these four major constructs (sustainability practices, LP, PI, and sustainability performance) through hypotheses development. Subsequently, using structural equation modelling, it is tested whether each of sustainability practices, LP, and PI effect sustainability performances. Additionally, mediating effect of LP and PI between sustainability practices and performances is derived. The study uses data from 119 SMEs within manufacturing industries in the Midlands, United Kingdom. Further, a few case studies have been undertaken to validate the findings from quantitative analysis. The overall results show that although sustainability practices, LP, and PI help achieve sustainability performance of SMEs supply chain through efficiency and responsiveness respectively, the mediating effect LP is more compared with PI. Moreover, SMEs adopt LP when they are economy focused and implement PI when they are pressurised by customers and/or policymakers.     

How collaborative routines improve dynamic innovation capability and performance in tourism industry? A path-dependent learning model

Current results of direct relationships between collaboration and innovation capability on performance in tourism contexts are inconsistent. This research is to uncover roles of collaborative routines on promoting relationships between internal and service innovation capabilities as two distinct mechanisms, and performance. The study also examines the contingent effect of knowledge search on performance. Survey data from 181 samples from the Thai tourism industry are gathered for analyses. Findings demonstrate that knowledge search and internal innovation capability have a direct impact on performance, whereas the effect of service innovation capability on performance is significant only in the presence of collaborative routines.     

Sustainable Entrepreneurship: A Convergent Process Model

Sustainable entrepreneurship pursues a triple bottom line approach of economic, social and ecological goals. The main aim of this paper is to add to our understanding of the process of sustainable entrepreneurship. Since the field of sustainable entrepreneurship is in a nascent stage, we conduct a qualitative study. We employ a multiple case study design to build theory. Based on four case studies we develop a model, which describes the process of sustainable entrepreneurship, including six phases: 1) recognizing a social or ecological problem; 2) recognizing a social or ecological opportunity; 3) developing a double bottom line solution; 4) developing a triple bottom line solution; 5) funding and forming of a sustainable enterprise; 6) creating or entering a sustainable market. By developing a convergent process model with two pathways, we make theoretical contributions to the emerging fields of sustainable entrepreneurship and social entrepreneurship. A key finding is that the triple bottom line of ecological, social and economic goals is integrated sequentially, not simultaneously. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd and ERP Environment.