公务员依法行政能力的提升途径

法治建设事关国家发展全局.因此,公务员依法行政能力的提升显得刻不容缓、至关重要.为此,应增强公务员行政法治观念,消除以“官本位”思想为主的行政人治性思想,并从革新培训模式、完善培训制度、拓宽培训视野等方面确保公务员依法行政能力培训得以顺利运行.同时,还要大力推行公务员依法行政问责制,并依托电子政务平台扩大民主参与.     

基于VVA的多分辨率交通仿真建模过程评价框架研究

文章从多分辨率交通仿真的建模过程入手,研究了系统仿真的校核、验证与确认(Verification Validation Accreditation,VVA)过程评价的原理。在此基础上,提出了基于VVA的多分辨率交通仿真建模的过程评价框架。通过研究仿真系统生命周期中的一系列活动来评价研究结果的正确性和有效性,提高了系统的可信性,使仿真系统能够满足实际应用的需要。     

Crime prediction by data-driven Green’s function method

We develop an algorithm that forecasts cascading events, by employing a Green’s function scheme on the basis of the self-exciting point process model. This method is applied to open data of 10 types of crimes happened in Chicago. It shows a good prediction accuracy superior to or comparable to the standard methods which are the expectation–maximization method and prospective hotspot maps method. We find a cascade influence of the crimes that has a long-time, logarithmic tail; this result is consistent with an earlier study on burglaries. This long-tail feature cannot be reproduced by the other standard methods. In addition, a merit of the Green’s function method is the low computational cost in the case of high density of events and/or large amount of the training data.     

An information-theoretic approach for forecasting interval-valued SP500 daily returns

We develop an iterative and efficient information-theoretic estimator for forecasting interval-valued data, and use our estimator to forecast the SP500 returns up to five days ahead using moving windows. Our forecasts are based on 13 years of data. We show that our estimator is superior to its competitors under all of the common criteria that are used to evaluate forecasts of interval data. Our approach differs from other methods that are used to forecast interval data in two major ways. First, rather than applying the more traditional methods that use only certain moments of the intervals in the estimation process, our estimator uses the complete sample information. Second, our method simultaneously selects the model (or models) and infers the model’s parameters. It is an iterative approach that imposes minimal structure and statistical assumptions.     

润肤霜的制备工艺及其性能研究

使用混合膜生成法和瞬间成皂法配制润肤霜,论文通过单因素试验法探究了1618醇的含量、乳化温度和乳化时间对润肤霜性能的影响。通过对试验数据进行分析得出如下结论:1618醇含量为4.0%、乳化温度为75~80℃、乳化时间为7~9min时产品质量合格,满足QB/T 1857—2013《润肤膏霜》中对性能的要求。     

Policy Dimensions of Progressive Institutional Change: Lessons from China’s Construction of a Socialist Market Economy

Abstract:

Through a comprehensive review of the progressive institutional change (PIC) literature, I first discuss four possible trajectories of PIC by considering the forces of societal reaction that might frame the path, as well as the scale and scope of the changes. Thus, I pose four questions that need to be asked when related policies are formulated for PIC. To illustrate this method, I scrutinize the evidence from the construction of a socialist market economy by the Chinese government since the 1980s and argue that related policies have successfully promoted PIC from three dimensions: (1) curbing potential conflicts with power groups; (2) promoting a sense of awareness among stakeholders; and (3) minimizing disturbances to the community. Actually, the related changes demonstrate a dynamic “displacement process” for PICs. Despite the success of this sociosystem, it is found that the sustaining of PIC which requires policy factors that enhance instrumental efficiency in the Chinese context will serve as a challenge to the Chinese government ahead.     

A capabilities perspective on the joint effects of internationalization time,speed, geographic scope and managers’ competencies on SME survival

This study examines the effect of key internationalization contingencies on SME survival. We argue early internationalization increases the probability of firm failure, while international experience reduces it. However, the survival odds among international new ventures may be improved by their post-entry international expansion scope and speed, and by managers’ competencies. These internationalization facets provide firms with opportunities to develop and exploit their resources and capabilities, and thus enhance their survival chances. Drawing on a sample of 271 manufacturers followed between 2005 and 2014, we find results that provide support to most of our arguments, and hold theoretical and managerial relevance.     

Cox Point Processes: Why One Realisation Is Not Enough

We review a rich class of point process models, Cox point processes, and illustrate the necessity of more than one observation (point patterns) in performing parameter estimation. Furthermore, we introduce a new Cox point process model by treating the intensity function of the underlying Poisson point process as a random mixture of normal components. The behaviour and performance of the new model are compared with those of popular Cox point process models. The new model is exemplified with an application that involves a single point pattern corresponding to earthquake events in California, USA.     

Double continuation regions for American and Swing options with negative discount rate in Lévy models

In this paper, we study perpetual American call and put options in an exponential Lévy model. We consider a negative effective discount rate that arises in a number of financial applications including stock loans and real options, where the strike price can potentially grow at a higher rate than the original discount factor. We show that in this case a double continuation region arises and we identify the two critical prices. We also generalize this result to multiple stopping problems of Swing type, that is, when successive exercise opportunities are separated by i.i.d. random refraction times. We conduct an extensive numerical analysis for the Black–Scholes model and the jump‐diffusion model with exponentially distributed jumps.     

Process innovation capability and subsequent collaborative team performance in travel planning: a knowledge exchange platform perspective

Purpose: Backpacker tourism is flourishing in this century as the high development of Internet technology which enables travellers to search for resources they need easier. The research goal of this study was to exam how virtual skill and collective efficacy affect process innovation capability and subsequent team performance of collaborative design team in a virtual community. Design/methodology/approach: In this study, we formulated the virtual team model from the perspectives of open innovation paradigm and virtual competence, and we collected virtual community participation samples from the online communities. Invitation emails were delivered to numerous trip plan initiators in two well-known online travel communities for filling survey questionnaires for this study. In total, 3000 invitation messages were mailed, of which 373 were returned completed. The model and hypotheses were tested by structural equation modelling. Findings: Virtual competence, including collective efficacy and virtual media skill, is the essential key to facilitate process innovation capability and subsequent team performance success. Besides, knowledge sharing significantly moderates the relationship between process innovation capability and the team performance. Originality/value: Backpackers in the online travel communities have to have not only the willingness to collaborate, but also the abilities of using the correct tool to help with their tasks. When a self-efficacy gets into collective efficacy, it enables the collaborative team to develop with good virtual competencies. Accordingly, trip plan initiator and participants of a virtual team are as expertise contributors between conformity in online communities and online compulsive control tendencies.