规模化植棉与土地流转的历史必然——对新疆棉区适度规模经营与土地流转问题的探讨

党的十七届三中全会报告关于土地经营权流转的政策,对新疆棉区加快土地流转、推进规模化植棉意义重大。本文对新疆棉区适度规模经营与土地流转的必要性以及规模化经营的优越性进行了分析,认为适度规模经营与土地流转是新疆棉区实现棉农增收、种植结构优化及棉区农业现代化的客观需要与现实选择;规模化植棉对提高棉农劳动生产率、专用农机具的有效利用率及棉花基地建设的现代化水平十分重要。因此,建议政府应给予高度重视和政策引导。     

遮蔽与还原——解读《红高粱》与《棉花垛》中的女性形象

通过对莫言的《红高粱》与铁凝的《棉花垛》中女性形象的解读,文章分析了《红高粱》中的“我奶奶”、“玲子”等女性形象对女性历史、女性身体、女性言说的遮蔽及《棉花垛》中的“乔”、“小臭子”等女性形象对历史女性的还原,辨析了不同性别作家作品中存在的鲜明的性别差异,以期促进女性主义的研究。     

开展农业标准化 棉花生产上台阶

阐述了把标准化工作与发展“两高一优”农业有机地结合起来的必要性和应用标准化手段，积极开展棉花生产综合标准化工作所取得的成绩。     

Will cotton make a comeback in Mali?

With the decline of cotton especially in the marginal cotton areas, farmers have been using more of the cotton‐financed inputs on the cereals. The cotton para‐statal company (CMDT) has made a virtue out of this recommending diversification for these regions. Following the world price spike in 2010, the Malian government responded with a substantial price increase for cotton in 2011 of 38% to rejuvenate the Malian sector. This article looks at the impact of this price policy in the cotton economy and the potential of new cereal technology and marketing strategy to raise incomes and facilitate the diversification. Given the importance of the marketing decision of selling later after the recovery of cereal prices from the harvest collapse, a discrete stochastic programming model was developed for three‐stage decision making. Then, the recent changes in the cotton economy and government fertilizer subsidies were analyzed along with the introduction of the new technology marketing of sorghum. Cotton and maize continue to dominate the economy but the combined sorghum technology marketing increases farmers’ incomes by 16% to 21% and eases the return to normal cotton prices, after the 2011 price spike, as well as the removal of the fertilizer subsidies.     

The effects of rising labour costs on global supply chains: the case of China’s cotton yarn industry

Rapid economic growth in China and India has resulted in rapidly rising labour costs in those countries. In this study a Muth-type model is used to assess the potential effects of this development on global supply chains using China’s cotton yarn industry as a case study. The model considers i) product differentiation at the yarn level; ii) imperfect competition in the markets for cotton yarn and raw cotton fibre, iii) input substitution between raw cotton fibre, labour, and capital; and iv) offsetting increases in the demand for cotton yarn caused by rising consumer income. Results suggest the effects of rising labour costs on the supply chain are modest, and easily swamped or obscured by the effects of rising income. Increases in industry market power (both oligopoly and oligopsony) have the same effect on the supply chain as increases in labour costs, raising prices to consumers of cotton yarn, and lowering prices to input suppliers, including foreign suppliers of raw cotton fibre. The combined effects of increases in labour costs and income have increased the factor shares for labour and to a lesser extent capital at the expense of raw cotton fibre.     

Cotton market integration and the impact of China's new exchange rate regime

This article studies the integration of China's cotton market with the international market, especially the U.S. market. Investigating the futures prices from the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) in the U.S. and the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange (ZCE) in China with several time series models, we find that a long‐run cointegration relationship exists between these two series. The two markets share price transmissions, and based on results from an Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (ARCH) model, we find their price volatilities are similar. We argue that China's recent exchange rate reform and its gradual liberalization in bilateral cotton trade since it joined World Trade Organization have had important impacts on these futures markets. Based on these findings, several important economic and policy implications are derived.     

中国转基因抗虫棉发展的现状与对策

中国转基因抗虫棉是一项具有国际领先水平的生物技术,正在对中国农业产生广泛的影响。分析了当前中国转基因棉花发展的现状和存在的问题,提出其今后发展的对策。     

Climate and agricultural risk: measuring the effect of ENSO on U.S. crop insurance

Predictive models of climatic phenomena can aid in insurance program design and decision making. Extreme weather outcomes have been linked to the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which globally impacts agricultural production. This study demonstrates that extreme ENSO events alter cotton yield distributions in the Southeastern United States. These impacts translate into economically meaningful effects on crop insurance premium rates. Commercial insurers can use publicly available information to determine if government‐set premium rates are mispriced, and in turn extract economic rents via the federally mandated Standard Reinsurance Agreement. By ceding underpriced policies in El Niño and La Niña years, we find that private insurance companies can reduce paid indemnities by 10–15% on average.     

Is a Futures Market Viable in Turkey? The Case of a Cotton Futures Market

Abstract

Many countries as they reduce price controls develop an interest in futures markets as a way to manage risk. This article explores the potential of using existing futures markets to hedge cotton in Turkey. Futures prices in New York and Liverpool are not cointegrated and only weakly correlated with cash prices in Izmir. Thus, existing futures markets have limited ability to reduce the risk faced by the cotton industry in Turkey. While there are obstacles to overcome, there does appear to be a potential demand for a cotton futures market in Turkey.     

清末至民国前期银企关系探究——以天津恒源纱厂与银行的关系为中心

本文以恒源纱厂与银行的关系为中心,对清末至民国前期的银企关系进行了分析,认为近代中国的工矿企业存在着对银行的高度依赖,在此基础上出现了银行控制企业的趋势.在这一趋势中,银行建立了相关的制度和组织,拓展了业务;而企业的经营管理机构也因此而改变,经营状况有所改善.但这并不意味着中国近代必然会出现银行主导型的银企关系.