Applications of Statistics in the Field of General Insurance: An Overview

This is an expository paper on applications of statistics in the field of general insurance, also called non‐life insurance. Unlike life insurance where advanced statistical techniques have long been part of financial mathematics and actuarial applications, their use is only relatively recent in non‐life insurance. The business model of insurance companies, especially those active in non‐life insurance, has seen dramatic changes over the last 15 years. The aim of this paper is to convince the readers that especially today non‐life insurance is not only an exciting ground to apply existing modern statistical tools but also a fertile environment for new and challenging statistical developments. The activities of an insurance company can be viewed as an industrial process where data management and data analysis play a key role. That is why a fundamental understanding of data‐related issues (such as data quality, variability, analysis and correct interpretation) is so essential to the insurance business. These are exactly the tasks where professional statisticians excel. Also, a better understanding of the field of general insurance by statisticians will promote fruitful exchanges between actuaries and statisticians, thereby helping to bring actuarial and statistical professional societies closer to each other. Selected examples are used to cover the essential aspects of general insurance, and all of them are based on the author's experience. The paper concludes with some remarks on the role of statisticians working in general insurance.     

The Politics of Property in Planning: Hezbollah's Reconstruction of Haret Hreik (Beirut,Lebanon) as Case Study

This research looks at post‐2006‐war reconstruction of the southern suburbs of Beirut under the auspices of Hezbollah (the Islamic resistance movement in Lebanon). The project was widely acclaimed as an alternative to current neoliberal planning practices in the Middle East and beyond. Based on a critical reading of the conception of property issues in this planning project, the article argues that this reconstruction presents a new geometry or alternative to the mainstream configuration of neoliberal urbanism, rather than a departure from its precepts. The reason for this is that the adopted language of property corresponds closely with the conception of property advocated by neoliberal planning, one that enshrines private, individual ownership as sacred and desirable and that works to strengthen its model in the city. I further argue that the ‘neoliberal planning regime’ within which Hezbollah's urban intervention occurs is not accidental; rather, it is necessary for the party's control of this space's future and for consolidating its territory in the city. It is hence expected that Hezbollah's planning in the city will produce the same decried effects as neoliberal planning elsewhere in the city rather than usher an innovative, progressive model of planning.     

Microdata analysis of the consequences of free trade port policy: the case of Iran free zones

ABSTRACT

Creating free trade zones as a policy to motivate new investment and improve the local economic indicators might be of some benefits. Following of this policy in Iranian major port, however, resulted vice versa by aggravating the current account balance that is higher imports and the same horizon diminished export sums. We derive the micro data of trade for the Iranian major Imam port according to code arrangements of harmonic system (HS), which permits the clustering of different goods categories. Then we extracted the sums of survey data for the years before and after Imam port became free trade zone and applied fixed effect difference in difference (DID) method to capture the heterogeneity of unobserved variables. Our control port of analysis was Rajaee port the policy did not implemented. Results show that just as Imam free port’s Current Account Balance deteriorated by increasing import and dampening of export sums.     

Does high‐speed rail connection really promote local economy? Evidence from China’s Yangtze River Delta

High‐speed rail (HSR) has led to a transportation revolution in China. This paper uses the county‐level panel data of China’s Yangtze River Delta to investigate the effect of HSR connection on local economy. To address the issue of endogenous HSR route placement, we use a straight‐line strategy to construct potential HSR connection variables as instrumental variables of the actual HSR connection. Both the difference‐in‐differences and instrumental variable methods show that HSR connection impedes local economy, especially in peripheral regions. The impediment effect is channeled through population reallocation from peripheral to core areas and the restructuring of industries.     

Bayesian forecasting of UEFA Champions League under alternative seeding regimes

The evaluation of seeding rules requires the use of probabilistic forecasting models both for individual matches and for the tournament. Prior papers have employed a match-level forecasting model and then used a Monte Carlo simulation of the tournament for estimating outcome probabilities, thus allowing an outcome uncertainty measure to be attached to each proposed seeding regime, for example. However, this approach does not take into account the uncertainty that may surround parameter estimates in the underlying match-level forecasting model. We propose a Bayesian approach for addressing this problem, and illustrate it by simulating the UEFA Champions League under alternative seeding regimes. We find that changes in 2015 tended to increase the uncertainty over progression to the knock-out stage, but made limited difference to which clubs would contest the final.     

网络流行语中民众网络话语权研究

网络流行语作为网络文化的产物，映射当下现代文明的各类现状。通过挖掘网络流行语内在起因、情境和心理，以反沉默螺旋法则为理论依据，研究当代民众网络话语权的产生、表达方式和表达心态以及相关应对机制。希望通过本研究对我国社会行政管理科学化进程有所助益。     

公路工程施工项目特殊季节与夜间施工安全控制要点

由于公路工程施工项目多数属于点多线长、露天和连续作业,涉及的人员、材料、机械设备多,技术含量低且需要经常变换工种的施工环境,使得安全风险大,因此,各施工单位必须对夜间和季节性施工安全措施高度重视,针对夜间施工和未来特殊气候环境影响下施工中可能发生的造成人员伤亡、疾病、财产损失、工作环境破坏等危险及紧急情况,采取有针对性的事先预防措施。     

Small system dynamics model for alleviating the general practitioners rural care gap in Ontario,Canada

The disproportionate concentration of healthcare professionals in urban areas is a concern in many countries, including Canada. A need to address this rural care gap has driven a large number of government led initiatives worldwide over the years. This paper presents a model that can be used as a tool to examine the efficacy of such policies on the workforce distribution in the long term. A small system dynamics model is employed to simulate the current and future distribution of general physicians at a jurisdictional level. The model represents the transition of general practitioners to provide insight into the dynamics of care provision over time. The movement, and competition, between rural and urban areas is modeled to enable detailed exploration of the ability for proposed measures to alleviate the care gap in the future. Among the tested policies are such commonly used initiatives as financial incentives to rural professionals, promotion of medical education in rural areas, expansion of rural education programs and the engagement of international medical graduates etc. We demonstrate how the model can be used as a tool to determine an efficient and well-chosen combination of policies which can help alleviate the rural care gap in the future, given that some policies are more effective than others alone but also combined with other initiatives. The presented small system dynamics model is tested on Canada's reality, but its simple nature lends itself to easy application to other countries that experience a similar problem.     

转型时期人民当家作主主体自觉性缺失与构建探讨

党的十八大强调夺取中国特色社会主义新胜利,必须坚持人民主体地位。笔者分析了我国转型时期主体自觉性缺失对人民当家作主的制约,提出了通过健全各项民主制度扩大人民当家作主的群众基础、加强法制宣传教育以增强人民依法维权自觉性、建设社会主义核心价值体系提供精神动力和思想保证等措施来构建人民当家作主的主体自觉性。     

大学数学素质拓展课程的教学实践

本文结合昆明理工大学实际,探讨了在新的时代要求下为高校非数学专业学生开设数学拓展课程的必要性,并提出了相关的理论依据。同时,本文在已开设拓展课程的基础上总结了取得的成绩和存在的不足,为今后课程设置及教学的进一步完善提出了相关建议。