中国省级区域国际旅游竞争力决定因素分析

基于理论分析提出了影响我国省级区域旅游目的地国际旅游竞争力的8个决定因素,即旅游资源、旅游资本、旅游业劳动力、政府作用、企业能力、旅游产业结构、基础设施和区位条件。以我国31个省(区)为样本,利用基于面板数据的多元线性回归分析方法,从实证角度定量研究了上述8个决定因素对省级区域国际旅游竞争力影响的显著性及其相对重要性。回归结果显示:我国各省(区)国际旅游竞争力来源的98.5%能够由8个决定因素解释;除旅游产业结构外,其他决定因素对各省级区域国际旅游竞争力的影响均在0.01的水平上显著。     

Preventing HIV in injection drug users: exploring the tradeoffs between interventions

Injection drug users (IDUs) transmit the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) via both needle sharing and sex. Available interventions for this population have varying costs and effectiveness and focus on different risk behaviors. In this analysis, we look at two interventions. One is inexpensive, broad-based and provides modest risk reductions (street outreach (SO)); the other is narrowly focused, expensive and relatively effective (methadone maintenance). This analysis explores the effects of population risk behavior, intervention effectiveness, intervention costs, and decision constraints when allocating funds between these two interventions to maximize effectiveness. We develop a model of the spread of HIV, dividing IDUs into susceptibles (uninfected) and infectives, and separately portraying sex and injection risk. We simulate the epidemic in New York City for time periods from the mid-1980s to the early 1990s, and incorporate the behavioral effects of two interventions performed singly or in combination to find the allocation that maximizes the number of infections averted in the IDUs and their noninjecting sex partners, assuming interventions have increasing marginal costs. We find that the optimal allocation nearly always involves spending the maximum allowable amount on SO. This result is largely insensitive to variations in risk parameters, intervention efficacy, or cost. The model's structure, however, makes clear that many factors contribute to this insensitivity, namely the scope of the interventions, the dual drug/sex nature of HIV risk in the population, the asymmetry of sexual risk for men and women, and the potential benefits to nonIDUs.     

WHICH AGGLOMERATION EXTERNALITIES MATTER MOST AND WHY?

This paper revisits the ongoing discussion on the importance of agglomeration externalities – specifically specialization, diversity and competition effects – that may contribute to innovation, productivity and urban employment growth. Previous meta‐analyses suggested that the evidence on agglomeration externalities is strongly context‐specific. Expanding an earlier analysis of 31 articles, we seek to draw in this paper more robust conclusions by means of the statistical evidence for agglomeration externalities presented in 73 scientific articles, all building on the seminal work of Glaeser et al. (1992). Our results confirm that the heterogeneity among studies is huge and can only be partially accounted for by means of an ordered probit analysis. Additionally, some evidence of publication bias is found. We conclude that the conventional lines of inquiry in this literature may now have reached strongly diminishing returns. New lines of inquiry, using rich micro‐level data on firms and workers, dynamic general equilibrium models at the macro level, more attention for spatial and temporal variation in the impacts of agglomeration, and further investigations into the spatial scope of externalities are promising avenues for further research that can enhance our understanding of how agglomeration externalities continue to fuel our increasingly urbanized world.     

山东省进出口结构实证研究

进出口一直被认为是促进经济增长的重要因素。选取1984—2007年的山东省进出口贸易额及GDP作为研究对象,运用计量经济学分析方法中时间序列的平稳性检验及协整分析方法,对进口、出口及GDP三者的关系进行实证研究,结果表明,山东省进出口与经济增长之间存在长期的均衡关系,进一步证明了三者之间存在协整关系,并且发现进口对经济增长的影响较出口更为显著。     

安全投资模型及收益分析探讨

本文在分析安全投资模型基础上提出,安全投资对生产经营单位产生效益的分析模型.认为企业安全生产的基本前提是有一定的安全投资比例,并且以最佳安全投资点进行投资所产生的效益表现形式是潜在的、收益是巨大的.因此,我们从另一个角度认识到安全投资的重要性,同时也为项目设计提供参考依据.     

日本国家重大科技专项组织模式的研究(续)

本文对日本重大产业技术项目计划体系、组织机构、组织体制与项目实施的基本模式与特点进行了全面的研究,并通过两个案例进行了具体分析,从中揭示出几点对我国国家重大科技专项组织工作的启示。     

中国已婚育龄人群避孕措施选择的偏好与影响因素分析

避孕节育是中国计划生育的核心内容之一,也是我国中长期人口发展战略中稳定低生育水平的重要措施之一。选取1988年全国生育节育抽样调查数据,利用多分类Logit模型（MNL）对不同特征育龄妇女避孕措施进行分析。不同生育周期和不同社会特征、子女性别、计划生育政策强度对已婚育龄人群避孕措施的选取有明显的影响。不同孩次的已婚育龄人群在避孕措施选择中都存在一定的避孕偏好,尤其是子女性别不同时呈现避孕措施选择的明显差异,即最小子女为女孩的育龄人群比最小子女为男孩的育龄人群更为倾向于选择避孕套等自控型短效避孕措施,提示避孕措施的选择存在制度内规避行为,并受到一定的性别偏好因素的影响。     

我国饲料业营销环境分析与评价

随着饲料业主导技术的日趋成熟及市场化发育程度的提高,饲料业己步入从成长期向成熟期过渡的转型期。饲料行业面临着同质化竞争,要使企业在竞争中处于有利的地位,必须对饲料行业中的供应商、养殖户、行业内竞争对手、潜在进入者进行分析,从而得出整个行业的发展趋势。