“中三角”区域省份创新要素集聚与经济增长的关系研究

科技创新力逐渐成为区域内经济增长的驱动力。区域内经济增长速度与促进要素在不同空间关系密切,不同地区的创新要素集聚各有特点,创新资源集聚促进区域科技创新力发展和高新技术产业普及,从而带动了当地经济长远发展。以“中三角”为例,从创新要素集聚角度分析湖北、湖南、江西三省省域和地市创新资源配置现状,利用Cobb-Douglas生产函数及联立方程模型探究创新资源配置与经济增长的关系。在此基础上,提出了科技创新与区域发展的对策建议。     

金融中介效率对货币政策效果的影响——基于动态随机一般均衡模型的研究

本文运用新凯恩斯框架下的DSGE模型研究金融中介效率对货币政策效果的影响,研究结果表明:(1)无论是利率规则还是数量规则,金融中介效率的提高都会弱化货币政策对产出、消费和通货膨胀的影响;(2)在利率规则下,金融中介效率提高还会平滑劳动的波动,并最终减少社会福利损失,而在数量规则下,金融中介效率提高会放大货币政策冲击造成的劳动的波动,并最终放大社会福利损失。因此,货币政策的中介目标应当由货币供应量向利率转变。     

资本结构、亏损逆转性与公司财务价值

以我国证券市场2003～2009年之间发生亏损的1244家上市公司为研究样本,运用中介效应分析程序,探讨亏损逆转性在资本结构对亏损上市公司财务价值的驱动过程中起到的中介作用。结果表明,资本结构对亏损上市公司的亏损逆转性和财务价值均存在直接的正向驱动效应,亏损逆转性没有明显地中介资本结构对亏损上市公司财务价值的正向驱动效应。因此,在识别亏损上市公司的财务价值时要考虑亏损上市公司当期的资本结构,要重点关注其以后发生亏损逆转的可能性及其逆转程度的大小。     

灰色理论在高速铁路生态风险评价中的应用

高速铁路建设给沿线景观生态、人群健康带来一定生态风险。基于压力-状态-响应模型构建了高速铁路建设生态风险评价指标体系,利用层次分析法确定各指标权重,以中心点三角白化权函数灰色评价方法为基础研究适用于高速铁路建设生态风险评价模型。将模型应用于京沪高速铁路某段,得到该段路域生态风险总体综合评价状态以及影响生态风险等级各对象评价状况。为管理决策者进行路域生态风险管理提供有效的依据。     

Value Functions for Prospect Theory Investors: An Empirical Evaluation for U.S. Style Portfolios

The main aim of this article is to provide a general behavioral analysis that proposes a series of different value functions for prospect theory (PT) investors incorporated into behavioral reward-risk models that are finally solved so as to provide some specific optimal solutions. To do this, general behavioral reward-risk models, which contain all the basic elements of the PT, are first set up. Two reward and risk measures, the upper partial moment and the lower partial moment, are subsequently used to create the various value functions. The technical difficulties arising during the behavioral maximization process are overpassed by adapting the Rubinstein [1982 Rubinstein, R. Y. “Generating Random Vectors Uniformly Distributed Inside and On the Surface of Different Regions.” European Journal of Operational Research, 10, (1982), pp. 205–209.[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]] algorithm. The results show that agents differentiate their behavior according to their type of preferences (S-shaped, reverse S-shaped, kinked convex, and kinked concave value function) but they seem to always prefer small capitalization and high positively skewed value stock portfolios. Probability distortion also affects the optimal solutions of the problem, independently of the employing weighting functional form; when subjective probabilities are employed the optimal weights of the most risky positively skewed assets seem to increase. Probability distortion has an additional important effect on optimal perspective values of the problem driving to a significant increase.     

适应性学习下货币政策规则的收敛性与收敛速度影响因素分析

适应性学习过程是从有限理性向理性预期均衡收敛的过程,其收敛性和收敛速度是制约货币政策效果的关键因素。文章先夯实了多种货币政策规则的收敛区域,而后通过在区域内综合比较不同规则的福利损失状况,得到公众向理性预期均衡收敛最快的货币政策规则形式,最后探索了影响适应性学习向理性预期均衡收敛速度的原因,结果显示：承诺下预期型最优货币政策规则较其他规则有更快的收敛速度;而公众的数据搜集能力和利用效率,对货币政策目的和预期效果的了解程度以及适应性学习方法等因素是制约适应性学习收敛速度的关键。     

The Euro Changeover and the Factors Influencing Perceived Inflation

The most flamboyant economic effect of the euro changeover on consumers was a dramatic increase in perceived inflation. To directly measure perceived inflation, Brachinger developed a new index of perceived inflation (IPI). This index is based on some hypotheses about factors influencing perceived inflation. An experimental study is presented which investigated the influence of two of these hypothesized factors, purchase frequency and loss aversion, on individual judgments of price changes. Furthermore, two additional factors have been included that are informative with respect to the IPI, product segment and price level. Judgments of inflation were assessed with three methods, yielding different results. Empirical evidence for the hypotheses was obtained.      

电子商务课税的福利经济学分析

电子商务的迅速发展将给税收带来巨大的冲击,但各界就是否对电子商务课税以及何时课税一直存在分歧.本文将定量分析与定性分析结合起来,应用福利经济学的有关原理,探讨了对电子商务课税的利与弊,并指出二者之间的关系是:短期内弊大于利,长期内利大于弊.     

医保分割下的异地老年人就医损失评估与化解

医疗保险制度区域分割对老年人异地养老造成了巨大阻碍。在分析异地养老困难的基础上,采用多种方法,估算和预测异地养老老人规模,以及相应的异地医疗报销损失规模。从区域分割、制度分割、管理分割、人群分割四个方面,分析异地养老老人医保报销损失的原因。提出了解决异地养老老人医保报销损失的三个方案,并从目标、内容、优势、劣势、成本效率方面对三个方案进行比较,认为选择构建统一国民基本医疗保险是最优方案。最后,从部门管理协同、构建全国医保信息平台、统一医保机构报销等级比例三个方面提出了配套改革措施。     

A behavioural explanation to the asymmetric volatility phenomenon: Evidence from market volatility index

This study examines how the behavioural explanations, in particular loss aversion, can be used to explain the asymmetric volatility phenomenon by investigating the relationship between stock market returns and changes in investor perceptions of risk measured by the volatility index. We study the behaviour of India volatility index vis‐à‐vis Hong Kong, Australia and UK volatility index, and provide a comprehensive comparative analysis. Using Bai‐Perron test, we identify structural breaks and volatility regimes in the time series of volatility index, and investigate the volatility index‐return relation during high, medium and low volatility periods. Regardless of volatility regimes, we find that volatility index moves in opposite direction in response to stock index returns, and contemporaneous return is the most dominating across the four markets. The negative relation is strongest for UK followed by Australia, Hong Kong and India. Second, volatility index reacts significantly different to positive and negative returns; negative return has higher impact on changes in volatility index than positive return across the markets over full‐sample and sub‐sample periods. The asymmetric effect is stronger in low volatility regime than in high and medium volatility periods for all the markets except UK. The strength of asymmetric effect is strongest for Hong Kong and weakest for India. Finally, negative returns have exponentially increasing effect and positive returns have exponentially decreasing effect on the changes in volatility index.