营销人员流失模糊综合评价研究

基于模糊综合评价模型,文章构建企业营销人员流失风险的识别系统,根据销售人员个体价值及流失风险对企业营销人员流失状况进行了分析,报告了企业营销人员流失现状;通过采用人力资源个体价值方法,进行了企业营销人员流失风险调查,反映了企业营销人员管理存在的问题;根据营销人员对企业的贡献差别,确定营销人员流失风险指数;然后,根据营销人员流失风险指数和个体价值指数的关系,将企业营销人员细分为低风险低价值人员、高风险低价值人员、高风险高价值人员和低风险高价值人员四类,并根据企业营销人员细分标准,对不同类别的营销人员制定不同的管理策略,取得营销人员细分定位管理策略的研究成果,从人力资源角度为企业降低营销人员流失率,提高企业的经营效益提供了理论依据。     

Are Investors Rational When Valuing Loss Firms?

The authors examine whether high valuation of loss firms really exists and can be explained by behavioral factors. This valuation may originate from irrational behavior of optimistic investors who prefer lottery-like stocks, or from rational expectations of firms' profitability. Using a sample of small Canadian firms going public, the authors show that both individual investors and underwriters price loss firms higher than profit firms, everything being equal. Post-IPO 3-year underperformance does not differ statistically between loss and profit firms. Investors thus apparently behave irrationally for all firms, but their irrationality does not seem greater for loss firms.     

Determinants and implications of crop production loss: An empirical exploration using ordered probit analysis

This study investigates farmers’ perception about the severity of loss for three rice crops, identifies their determinants and explores policy implications based on findings. This research employs an ordered probit model to data collected from 1800 farm households from drought-prone and groundwater depleted areas of Bangladesh. This is the first study of its kind.Severity of rice production loss, while differing across all three rice crops, was higher for rain-fed crops. This was broadly consistent with available independent evidence. Geophysical factors, household characteristics, institutional and market accessibility, and household adaptation strategy were key determinants of crop loss. The impact of these factors was specific to the crop and severity of loss.This study has several policy implications involving market, R & D and institutional support based options. Strengthening support systems for institutional and market accessibility, and science driven climate change adaptation strategy including generation and wider dissemination of drought tolerant rice varieties, and enhancing farmers’ capacity to change rice varieties on a regular basis, constitute key areas for policy intervention.     

税收福利成本文献述评

税收在资源配置过程中除有形的经济负担之外，还会产生无形的负担，即税收的课征会影响人们在经济活动中的决策。本文通过介绍税收福利成本概念，税收福利成本计量模型的介绍以及对税收福利成本实证研究的回顾三个角度对文献进行整理与评述，并进一步提出研究方向。     

Loss severities on residential real estate debt during the Great Recession

This study develops estimates of expected loss severities on mortgage exposures using data from Florida during the Great Recession. This paper marks the first attempt at addressing sample selectivity in the context of loss models. We also construct measures of home equity that are more accurate than those employed in previous studies. We find that failing to address sample selection and the use of noisy equity measures in loss models can bias loss estimates significantly. We also find significantly higher loss severities and a greater sensitivity of loss severity to equity than what previous studies report.     

An Empirical Analysis of the Impact of Promotional Discounts on Store Performance

The received wisdom, reflected in popular marketing textbooks, is that featuring deeply discounted items will generate additional store traffic for retailers that in turn will lead to increased sales and profits. However, there is surprisingly little systematic evidence about the impact of these deep discounts on aggregate store traffic, sales, and profits. In this paper, we study the effects of promotional discounts and their characteristics on various store performance metrics employing a store level dataset pooled over 55 weeks and 24 stores. Many findings of our study lend credence to the continued popularity of such promotions by retailers. We find that feature promotions build store traffic, especially when the categories being featured are high penetration, high frequency. Also, promotions of branded items are found to be more effective than promotions of unbranded items. Discounting on more items in a category leads to lower store margins suggesting that the cost of discounting a large proportion of items in a category may not be justified by the profits generated by the sale. Using the coefficients from our model estimates, various counterfactuals provide insights into strategic change in level of discounts across categories. We discuss several implications of our findings for retailers.     

Drawing up the official adjustment rules for damage assessment in agricultural insurance: Results of a Delphi survey for fruit crops in Spain

This paper presents the results of an innovative use of the Delphi technique to obtain quantitative information for the evaluation of the Official Adjustment Rules for Damage Assessment in agricultural insurance. An efficient insurance system must guarantee that loss adjustment is performed fairly and transparently, so that the continual review and modification of adjustment rules becomes especially important. The present study develops and applies a methodology based on the subjective information compiled by experts to evaluate the modification of the Specific Loss Adjustment Rule for Fruit Crops under real market conditions.The results show that the method employed comes forward as a valid option to provide reliable information, as well as other economic and social advantages, in the absence of alternative statistical sources. The validity of the study has been proved by its utility, as the results were extremely useful for drawing up a new Official Adjustment Rule. This application opens up an interesting field of development for this technique, which will enable the proposed methodology to be applied to similar studies in the context of agricultural insurance loss adjustment.     

Optimistic bias in management forecasts by Japanese firms to avoid forecasting losses

Listed firms in Japan are effectively compelled to report management forecasts of sales, ordinary income, and net income along with actual earnings and sales each year. Prior studies report that Japanese managers tend to announce optimistic forecasts of earnings. We show that a large part (61.6%) of the overall optimistic bias in management earnings forecasts in Japan can be explained by loss forecast avoiding behavior of a small fraction (5.25%) of firms. Such behavior is caused in part by the view of the main bank and power group that the management forecast of earnings is the manager's earnings target. Our findings suggest that the Japanese stock market recognizes such loss forecast avoidance and accordingly discounts new information in management forecasts.     

Dissertation abstract: The effect of involvement, time, and vividness on consumers’ value judgments: A test of prospect theory

The literature in psychology and behavioral economics offers abundant instances of anomalies to the rational choice paradigm. One of the most prominent works attempting to reconcile these is Kahneman and Tversky’s Prospect Theory. Its well-known S-shaped value function accounts for some of the anomalies such as reference dependence, loss aversion, and diminishing sensitivity. Although Prospect Theory describes the manner in which individuals are loss averse, it does not explain why people show loss aversion. This dissertation investigates the factors that affect the cognitive processes behind loss aversion. We find an anomaly in the S-shaped value function. Specifically, the studies demonstrate that the degree of involvement affects the slope of the value curve both for atemporal and intertemporal choices. In addition, we also test the relationship between loss aversion and involvement with varying vividness of outcomes (i.e., when outcomes are related to more versus less vivid stimuli). Testing the vividness effects further extends and confirms our proposed relationship between involvement and loss aversion. The data from several experiments show that there is a difference in the slopes of the value function for low and high involvement decisions. For low involvement conditions, the value curve has roughly the same steepness for losses as for gains close to the neutral reference point (i.e., contrary to the diminishing sensitivity characteristic). By contrast, in the high involvement conditions this is not the case: there is a distinct difference in the slopes of the loss and gain curves. This leads us to propose that different value functions exist for people in the low and high involvement conditions. This important finding suggests that in cases where people are not highly involved with a product, they display significantly less loss aversion than predicted by Prospect Theory. Three experiments investigate the relationship of loss aversion to subjects’ level of involvement in atemporal choice, intertemporal choice, and differential vividness of stimuli situations, respectively. The first study uses a 2 (involvement: low and high) by 2 (outcome: gain and loss) between subjects design. The results show that loss aversion significantly attenuates in the low involvement condition for atemporal choice. Study two replicates the results of study one in the context of intertemporal choice, where timing of outcomes (now versus three months) is introduced as another factor. Finally, the third study manipulates the vividness of outcomes and finds an interaction effect of vividness and involvement on loss aversion. Dissertation Committee: Norman Frohlich (Co- Chair), I.H. Asper School of Business, University of Manitoba Edward Bruning (Co- Chair), I.H. Asper School of Business, University of Manitoba Namita Bhatnagar, I.H. Asper School of Business, University of Manitoba Wayne Simpson, Department of Economics, University of Manitoba Michael Hu, Department of Marketing, Kent State University     

晋陕豫黄河金三角区域旅游协作建设构想

晋陕豫黄河金三角地区旅游资源丰富,旅游产品多样.但由于条块分割、协作不力等原因,制约了本区旅游业快速发展.文章在分析了区域旅游资源和旅游产品及区域旅游协作可行性和现实性的基础上,从建立协调机构、统一规划、利益分配、旅游空间结构和线路创新等方面提出本区旅游协作建设构想.