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91.
经济全球化进程中,国际贸易冲突如影随形,各国贸易保护手段层出不穷,海关政策五花八门,给进出口企业带来大量挑战。在当前全球贸易环境恶化的情况下,出口方在履约过程中通过提单控制物权极为关键,但同时也面临着出口货物被无单放货、被进口国海关拍卖,然而却维权无力等各种不确定因素。从海运实践着手,结合当前贸易环境,以出口方角度分析提单风险及成因,寻找解决途径,从结算方式、贸易术语、提单种类的选择、投保出口信用险等方面提出了防范建议。 相似文献
92.
有效实施宏观经济调控是各国政府的一个中心职能,其目的在于熨平经济周期波动,维持经济总量大体平衡,从而为市场有效配置资源,实现经济的长期增长创造有利条件。客观评价宏观经济调控的执行绩效有助于政策当局反思政策制定过程中的不适当行为,不断改进宏观经济管理水平,从而更好地实现政策目标。在本文中,我们忽略宏观经济调控政策的内部构成,视其为一个整体,基于政策当局的损失函数,设计了一个新的模型框架,对宏观经济调控执行绩效进行数量评价。 相似文献
93.
94.
《Business Horizons》2016,59(5):455-461
This article reviews the role of a global commercial organization, The Coca-Cola Company, in contributing to national stability in developing markets through a strategic approach to social and economic contribution. The company's initiatives complement the role of policymakers, who are primarily responsible for the safety and prosperity of citizens, often using the Golden Triangle model that aligns government, civil society, and the private sector. Examples are drawn from the empowerment of women and youth; leverage of specialist expertise in water replenishment and in distribution and logistics; the impact of global standards of compliance; and the creation of high-value jobs throughout the expansive value chain. The Coca-Cola system is global in scale but multi-local in its operations, leveraging universal human traits with high relevance in individual markets. 相似文献
95.
This study investigates the impacts of unobservable firm heterogeneity on modelling corporate bond recovery rates at the instrument level. Based on the recovery information over a long horizon from 1986 to 2012, we find that an obligor-varying linear factor model presents significant improvements in explaining the variations of recovery rates with a remarkably high intra-class correlation being observed. It emphasizes that the inclusion of an obligor-varying random effect term has effectively explained the unobservable firm level information shared by instruments of the same issuer and thus results in an improvement of predictive accuracy of recovery rates. The empirical results show that the latent economic cyclical effects have been well represented by firm level heterogeneity, and strong evidence is presented for the normal distributional assumption of the recovery rates. Finally, we demonstrate the choice of recovery rate models may influence portfolio risk with the obligor-varying factor model generating a more right clustered loss distribution than other regression methods on the aggregated portfolio. 相似文献
96.
R. K. ASHTON 《Abacus》1984,20(2):170-175
The decision in Garner v. Murray was a departure from what had been accepted partnership practice. In the elementary accounting texts the decision in the case is widely quoted although, surprisingly, the legal merits of the case have not been examined in the literature. It is to this question that this paper is directed. The analysis shows that the main points in the case were incorrectly decided and would have provided grounds for an appeal. The final part of the paper examines the implications of the analysis for the problems identified by Houghton (1981). 相似文献
97.
Inge S. Helland 《Revue internationale de statistique》2004,72(3):409-422
We explore the consequences of adjoining a symmetry group to a statistical model. Group actions are first induced on the sample space, and then on the parameter space. It is argued that the right invariant measure induced by the group on the parameter space is a natural non-informative prior for the parameters of the model. The permissible sub-parameters are introduced, i.e., the subparameters upon which group actions can be defined. Equivariant estimators are similarly defined. Orbits of the group are defined on the sample space and on the parameter space; in particular the group action is called transitive when there is only one orbit. Credibility sets and confidence sets are shown (under right invariant prior and assuming transitivity on the parameter space) to be equal when defined by permissible sub-parameters and constructed from equivariant estimators. The effect of different choices of transformation group is illustrated by examples, and properties of the orbits on the sample space and on the parameter space are discussed. It is argued that model reduction should be constrained to one or several orbits of the group. Using this and other natural criteria and concepts, among them concepts related to design of experiments under symmetry, leads to links towards chemometrical prediction methods and towards the foundation of quantum theory. 相似文献
98.
贺然 《山西经济管理干部学院学报》2003,11(3):71-72,76
随着我国社会主义市场经济体制的逐步建立和完善,个人所得税在税收中的地位和作用越来越明显。但由于长期以来征管乏力,公民纳税意识淡漠,税收法制不健全,造成个人所得税流失严重。这一现象对我国财政收入、收入分配制度都有极大的危害,关系到我国全面建设小康社会目标的实现,应引起各方面的高度重视。 相似文献
99.
Evaluation of forecast optimality in economics and finance has almost exclusively been conducted under the assumption of mean squared error loss. Under this loss function optimal forecasts should be unbiased and forecast errors serially uncorrelated at the single period horizon with increasing variance as the forecast horizon grows. Using analytical results we show that standard properties of optimal forecasts can be invalid under asymmetric loss and nonlinear data generating processes and thus may be very misleading as a benchmark for an optimal forecast. We establish instead that a suitable transformation of the forecast error—known as the generalized forecast error—possesses an equivalent set of properties. The paper also provides empirical examples to illustrate the significance in practice of asymmetric loss and nonlinearities and discusses the effect of parameter estimation error on optimal forecasts. 相似文献
100.
Bayesian Hypothesis Testing: a Reference Approach 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
For any probability model M={p(x|θ, ω), θεΘ, ωεΩ} assumed to describe the probabilistic behaviour of data xεX, it is argued that testing whether or not the available data are compatible with the hypothesis H0={θ=θ0} is best considered as a formal decision problem on whether to use (a0), or not to use (a0), the simpler probability model (or null model) M0={p(x|θ0, ω), ωεΩ}, where the loss difference L(a0, θ, ω) –L(a0, θ, ω) is proportional to the amount of information δ(θ0, ω), which would be lost if the simplified model M0 were used as a proxy for the assumed model M. For any prior distribution π(θ, ω), the appropriate normative solution is obtained by rejecting the null model M0 whenever the corresponding posterior expectation ∫∫δ(θ0, θ, ω)π(θ, ω|x)dθdω is sufficiently large. Specification of a subjective prior is always difficult, and often polemical, in scientific communication. Information theory may be used to specify a prior, the reference prior, which only depends on the assumed model M, and mathematically describes a situation where no prior information is available about the quantity of interest. The reference posterior expectation, d(θ0, x) =∫δπ(δ|x)dδ, of the amount of information δ(θ0, θ, ω) which could be lost if the null model were used, provides an attractive nonnegative test function, the intrinsic statistic, which is invariant under reparametrization. The intrinsic statistic d(θ0, x) is measured in units of information, and it is easily calibrated (for any sample size and any dimensionality) in terms of some average log‐likelihood ratios. The corresponding Bayes decision rule, the Bayesian reference criterion (BRC), indicates that the null model M0 should only be rejected if the posterior expected loss of information from using the simplified model M0 is too large or, equivalently, if the associated expected average log‐likelihood ratio is large enough. The BRC criterion provides a general reference Bayesian solution to hypothesis testing which does not assume a probability mass concentrated on M0 and, hence, it is immune to Lindley's paradox. The theory is illustrated within the context of multivariate normal data, where it is shown to avoid Rao's paradox on the inconsistency between univariate and multivariate frequentist hypothesis testing. 相似文献