Valuation and classification of company issued cash and share-puts

This paper examines whether investors’ valuations of cash and share-put warrants are influenced by their potential differential effect on firm solvency. It is motivated by the enactment of SFAS 150, which requires that all contingent put warrant obligations be classified as balance sheet liabilities regardless of put type. Consistent with the critics of SFAS150, we show that market participants differentially value cash and share-puts based on their solvency characteristics beyond the firm’s recorded assets and liabilities. Our results add to existing capital structure literature by suggesting that complex financial instruments (such as cash and share-puts) be reported separately from each other on a firm’s balance sheet.

彩票发行中委托代理的博弈分析及制度选择——以即开型彩票为例

我国即开型彩票发行中普遍存在着由承销商进行市场销售的委托-代理关系,受信息不对称影响,彩票发行机构与承销商之间便产生了委托-代理的道德风险.本文分别建立了委托-代理关系中政府与承销商间一次博弈模型和重复博弈模型,分析政府与承销商间相互依存行为的影响要素及作用机制,为我国彩票发行中承销制度改革提供建议.     

基于宏观资产负债表的居民债务问题及其风险研究

本文从宏观资产负债表的编制出发,对比世界主要经济体的居民债务演变,有效度量中国居民部门的债务杠杆水平。通过宏观部门经济间的关联,构造基于存量-流量一致的部门结构化均衡模型,剖析居民部门债务风险的传导机制,分析货币、财政和地产政策在居民债务风险防范中的作用。结果表明:中国居民部门金融资产负债率和偿债比例偏高,偿债压力逐步加大。但适中的资产负债率和较高的潜在经济增速为我国居民部门债务风险的化解提供了足够的空间。紧缩性货币政策有利于居民部门去杠杆化,但由此引发的消费减速和经济下行将导致企业和政府部门债务攀升;减税较政府直接支出更能激发消费内需、降低居民和企业债务杠杆,同时,长期经济的好转利于政府债务风险稳定。紧缩性地产政策虽然有助于长期经济结构的调整,但需防范短期经济下滑。     

Less debt,more schooling? Evidence from cross-country micro data

Soaring levels of public debt in low-income countries are fuelling concerns about their ability to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals, such as free access to primary education. In the late 1990s and 2000s, international financial institutions introduced a series of debt relief initiatives aimed to restore debt sustainability among highly indebted countries. This study examines the impact of these initiatives on primary school attendance. We exploit the temporal variation in the implementation of these policies, in combination with individual-level data from 177 Demographic and Health Surveys covering more than 1.5 million school-age children from 44 low-income countries to implement difference-in-differences and spatial difference-in-discontinuity estimators. Results suggest that debt relief initiatives, by freeing up additional public resources, have significantly contributed to increasing primary school attendance in heavily indebted countries. Impact heterogeneity analysis also shows that debt relief has been effective at reducing wealth-based, intergenerational, religious, ethnic and spatial inequalities in education. Our results provide robust evidence to assert that debt relief, in combination with other financing sources, can contribute to improving educational outcomes in highly indebted poor countries.     

日本灾后财政和债务前景展望

日本是发达经济体中财政赤字和政府债务负担最严重的国家。接二连三的欧洲主权债务危机和美国主权债务问题使市场不得不对日本是否将是下一个债务危机发生国产生隐忧。在2008年全球金融危机爆发前,日本的债务结构和低利率环境还可以使其维系高额的财政赤字和债务负担。然而2008年之后,在全球经济疲软和日本经济萎靡不振的背景下,日本处在了主权债务风险一直上升的阶段。更令日本祸不单行的是"3.11"大地震、海啸和核泄露事件,这一连串灾难更令日本在财政赤字和举债问题上如履薄冰。如果日本政府还不尽快实施有效的债务管理政策和可信的财政整顿计划,短期日本经济会难于运转,中长期日本将爆发主权债务危机。     

全流通纠正终极控制者利益取向的有效性——来自中国家族上市公司的证据

本文利用中国家族上市公司股权分置改革前后的季度时间数据,实证研究股份全流通纠正终极控制者利益取向的有效性,进而对股改的公司治理效果做出判断。股权分置带来的弊端是持有非流通股的公司控制者利益取向与公司市场价值的背离,产生严重的代理成本并阻碍我国资本市场的健康发展。全流通之后股权定价基础的一致,是否带来了终极控制者利益取向有所回归于上市公司价值?本文的研究表明:股权分置改革的确导致了大部分家族终极控制权的下降,不过一些家族终极控制者通过收购股权、定向增发等形式来巩固对上市公司的控制权;股改之后家族终极控制者掏空上市公司的程度呈显著下降;进一步研究发现,股改之后家族终极控制者的掏空动机发生了显著改善。全流通确实有效地纠正了上市公司终极控制者的利益取向。     

非金融企业债务融资工具非公开定向发行研究

为促进银行间债券市场需求的差异化、多样化,活跃市场交易、推动市场发展,中国银行间市场交易商协会于2011年4月29日发布《银行间债券市场非金融企业债务融资工具非公开定向发行规则》。这是我国银行间债券市场发行方式上的一大创新。本文在对银行间债券市场发展历程进行回顾的基础上,对非公开定向发行的主要特点与运行制度安排进行了详细分析。比较了非公开定向发行与公开发行的六点差异。在此基础上,本文列举了推出非公开定向发行方式的四点重要意义。最后,本文对发展中应予重视的五类风险进行了系统剖析。     

Firm Shutdown During the Financial and the Sovereign Debt Crises: Empirical Evidence from Portugal

This paper examines Portuguese firms’ survival over the business cycle and investigates whether the effect of firm size varies across the phases of the cycle and with the type of shock associated with periods of economic contraction. Our results show that smaller firms are more likely to shut down than larger firms. Within each size band, however, we found that during the two crises examined, micro firms experienced hazards of closing (relative to large firms) at least similar to those observed in the pre-crisis period, while medium-sized firms were found to have been more vulnerable during the financial crisis period but showed more resilience during the sovereign debt crisis. The results suggest that during the sovereign debt crisis, firms faced a higher probability of closing than they did during the financial crisis.     

Assessing time-varying stock market integration in Economic and Monetary Union for normal and crisis periods

In this paper, we examine the stock market integration process amongst 17 Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) countries from January 2002 to June 2013 over a normal period as well as for the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) and Eurozone Debt Crisis (EDC) periods. We classify the economies in three groups (A, B and C) based on their GDP to examine whether the economic size influences financial integration. Seven indicators are used for the purpose, namely, beta convergence, sigma convergence, variance ratio, asymmetric DCC, dynamic cointegration, market synchronisation measure and common components approach. The results suggest that large-sized EMU economies (termed as Group A) exhibit strong stock market integration. Moderate integration is observed for middle-sized EMU economies with old membership (termed as Group B). Small-sized economies (termed as Group C) economies seemed to be least integrated within the EMU stock market system. The findings further suggest presence of contagion effects as one moves from normal to crisis periods, which are specifically stronger for more integrated economies of Group A. We recommend institutional, regulatory and other policy reforms for Group B and especially Group C to achieve higher level of integration.     

Debt,seigniorage, and the Growth Laffer Curve in developing countries

The endogenous growth literature established the existence of an inverted-U curve between taxes and economic growth, namely a Growth Laffer Curve, but empirical evidence on this relationship in developing countries is rather limited. Given that seigniorage and public debt are also important means of financing public spending in these countries, we take into account in this paper their respective impacts on growth, as they might deform the existing relationship between taxes and growth. To this end, we develop a growth model with public investment as the engine of perpetual growth, and look for the effect of debt, tax and money financing on economic growth. We study in particular the way fiscal and monetary policies deform the Growth Laffer Curve in developing countries. An empirical section based on a panel of 100 developing countries over the period 1980–2010 provides both OLS-Fixed Effects and GMM-system estimations that support our theoretical conclusions, namely the existence of Growth Laffer Curves indexed by the levels of debt and of seigniorage.