乡村债务成因及化解途径的制度性分析

多年累积的乡村债务本质上是我国各项涉农政策的制度成本的长期沉淀。在化解乡村债务的过程中，既要根据各种既定制度分解债务的历史责任，又要适时推行农村核心制度的改革，避免步入农村改革的制度供给陷阱。     

Investment and access to external finance in Europe: Does analyst coverage matter?

We aim to determine whether analyst coverage improves European firms’ access to capital markets and investment. Based on a data set that includes firms from several European countries between 2000 and 2015, we implement a treatment effect framework and an instrumental variables (IV) approach, in which the intensity of industry-level waves in coverage is used as an instrument for firm-level coverage. We show that analyst coverage is favorable to firms’ debt and share issuance and their investment expenses. Our paper emphasizes the key role of financial analysts in improving European firms’ financial conditions.     

谈农民工养老保险金的缴费与计发

即将出台的农民工养老保险办法充分考虑到了农民工这个特殊群体的流动性和低收入特点。在过渡时期的个人账户制背景下，本文综合考虑各种因素对利率风险的影响，并对农民工养老保险金的缴费与计发进行了测算。     

Equity and efficiency aspects of the Italian debt reduction

The paper deals with the distributional and efficiency consequences of debt reduction in Italy. A reduction of the deficit from six to three percent of GDP is financed by the so-called Eurotax (introduced temporarily or permanently) combined with an adjustment of consumption taxes or public transfers. The quantitative analysis is based on a dynamic simulation model of the Auerbach-Kotlikoff type, which distinguishes between five lifetime income classes within each age cohort. Our simulation results indicate that debt reduction increases the welfare of future generations between 1 and 2% of lifetime resources and that consumption taxes are preferable to the Eurotax on allocative grounds.     

试论西部农民债务产生的原因及其影响

西部农民债务主要是由农户赌博、畸形消费、子女读书、医疗、建房等方面的支出、自然灾害以及农户收入少等原因造成的。日益严重的农户债务阻碍了村民生活质量的进一步提高;导致失学、辍学的青少年儿童越来越多;增加了农村的不稳定因素;降低了党和政府在村民中的形象和地位,成为西部农村发展的难题。     

债权治理对企业投资效率的作用研究——来自中国上市公司的经验证据

本文使用中国上市公司面板数据研究了紧缩货币政策下债权治理对企业投资效率的影响,结果表明,由于存在“预算软约束”,我国债权治理效果整体呈现不确定性,不能显著抑制上市企业的非效率投资。其深层次原因在于债权各构成部分的有效性不一致:商业信用的治理作用显著,但银行贷款、企业债券的治理作用不明显;短期债权的治理作用显著,而长期债权不明显。进一步研究发现,紧缩货币政策下债权治理效果均得到增强。因此,可通过加速资本市场法制建设、发展企业债券市场和推动银行业改革、规范货币操作以提高我国债权治理有效性。     

Corporate Debt Maturity Structure: The Role of Firm Level and Institutional Determinants in Selected African Countries

An appropriate debt maturity structure is essential for firms to enable them align asset structure to liabilities to prevent a mismatch. This study investigates the role of firm-level and institutional variables on debt maturity structure in selected African countries. Using panel generalised method of moment that addresses endogeneity problem; our findings reveal a dynamic process of adjustment to optimal debt maturity structure. Furthermore, firm-level variables (leverage, asset structure and firm size) provide support for the contracting cost, signalling and matching principle theories of debt maturity structure. Results of institutional variables suggest that better developed institutions promote long-term debt maturity structures.     

Introduction to the Special Issue

This special issue, “Developing the African Continent: Selected Issues,” is the outgrowth of a conference held in Gaborone, Botswana, August 19–21, 2008 sponsored by the Institute for Economic Policy Studies (IEPS), Worcester Massachusetts, USA. The theme of the conference was, “Developing the African Continent: Who is in Charge?”     

Debt Relief Incentives in Highly Indebted Poor Countries (HIPC): An Empirical Assessment

For more than two decades, the majority of countries in the African continent have experienced repeated episodes of rising external debt and debt service, which has led to numerous efforts of external debt relief. This paper provides new evidence on the effects of the Heavily Indebted Poor Countries (HIPC) Initiative on different economic and social indicators in 60 low income countries (LICs). Results show that LICs that were included in the HIPC Initiative marginally performed better than non-HIPC countries. There is evidence that countries that have reached the completion point of the HIPC Initiative by 2005 have experienced an average improvement in investment, health care, gross secondary education enrollment, and GDP per capita growth.

A down-and-out exchange option model with jumps to evaluate firms' default probabilities in Brazil

We develop a tractable structural model to estimate a firm's default probability by modeling its asset and debt behavior. The model incorporates jump factors. For a set of Brazilian large corporations, we compare the structural model results to the default probabilities predicted by a survival analysis applied to the Central Bank debt information database. Our model outperforms other structural models. In a last step, we use a firm's sector failure probabilities to calibrate the model. This process is executed by adjusting the model jump volatility and it helps to explain the differences between debt and equity market failure probabilities.