《管理沟通》课程多元化教学方法应用与教学效果提升

管理沟通是一门理论和实践并重的技能型课程,课程教学的重点在于使学生了解职场沟通规律和方法,掌握沟通的技巧,培养职业素质,从而提升个人沟通的能力.本科阶段开设该课程采用多元化教学方法的研究和实践尚处于起步阶段.本文通过采用多元化教学方法,利用理论和实践巧妙结合,多种教学方法交替运用,使学生不仅掌握其理论,而且又能在实践中灵活运用,以此调动学生学习和参与课程的积极性,从而提升教学效果.     

Does diversification promote systemic risk?

We measure systemic risk when faced with simulated shocks through the systemic model of banking originated losses. The formation mechanism of systemic risk is explored from the perspective of investment diversification and asset similarity. The results indicate that contagion risks formed by the over similarity of investment assets are the main cause of systemic risk. The similarity generally promotes contagion risks, however, it shows a double-faced effect for state-owned commercial banks that disperse shocks from counterparties through their too-big-to-fail advantages. The similarity is determined by diversification, which initially promotes similarity and disperses it after a threshold. The diversification acts on the contagion process of systemic risk by the mediation of the similarity. Therefore, diversification generally has a nonlinear impact on systemic risk. The results provide regulatory implications for the systemic stability of the banking system.     

多元化经营与现金持有水平——基于中国制造业上市公司的实证研究

本文采用2007～2009年446家A股制造业上市公司的平衡面板数据,基于静态权衡理论,利用两个维度的多元化经营指标分析了中国制造业上市公司多元化经营对现金持有水平的影响。研究结果显示,多元化与专业化上市公司的现金持有水平存在显著差异,多元化经营的上市公司现金持有水平更低,而且多元化经营水平越高的上市公司现金持有水平越低。     

Visualising defence and war in economic history journals (1989–2018)

ABSTRACT

Economics usually takes for granted a peaceful world with peaceful market transactions, where war and conflict are anomalies to the current state of business life. However, as History shows violence is a pervasive phenomenon. How is the current state of the art of research on war and defence in economic history journals? This paper provides an overview of research published on this topic by a selection of economic history journals since the fall of Berlin wall. By means of bibliometric and cluster analysis, and using visualising analytical tools, we show the production, main topics, authors, sources, etc. on this research area, and compare with the treatment received in economic journals. The main findings are that publications in economic history journals have increased in the last decades; cover a list of themes broader than that in economic journals; give an increasing importance to quantitative techniques; cite sources from the same area as well as from the top economic journals; and show a relative lack of appeal to neighbouring disciplines. Although economics and economic history influence each other, the direction of the scientific knowledge is going mostly from economics towards economic history rather than the opposite.     

Particle swarm optimization: A study of particle displacement for solving continuous and combinatorial optimization problems

This article addresses the particle swarm optimization (PSO) method. It is a recent proposed algorithm by Kennedy and Eberhart [1995. Particle swarm optimization. In: Proceedings of the IEEE International Conference on Neural Networks (Perth, Australia), vol. IV, IEEE Service Center, Piscataway, NJ, pp. 1942–1948]. This optimization method is motivated by social behaviour of organisms such as bird flocking and fish schooling. PSO algorithm is not only a tool for optimization, but also a tool for representing socio-cognition of human and artificial agents, based on principles of social behaviour. Some scientists suggest that knowledge is optimized by social interaction and thinking is not only private but also interpersonal. PSO as an optimization tool, provides a population-based search procedure in which individuals called particles change their position (state) with time. In a PSO system, particles fly in a multidimensional search space. During flight, each particle adjusts its position according to its own experience, and according to the experience of neighbours, making use of the best position encountered by itself and its neighbours. In this paper, we propose firstly, an extension of the PSO system that integrates a new displacement of the particles (the balance between the intensification process and the diversification process) and we highlight a relation between the coefficients of update of each dimension velocity between the classical PSO algorithm and the extension. Secondly, we propose an adaptation of this extension of PSO algorithm to solve combinatorial optimization problem with precedence constraints in general and resource-constrained project scheduling problem in particular. The numerical experiments are done on the main continuous functions and on the resource-constrained project scheduling problem (RCPSP) instances provided by the psplib. The results obtained are encouraging and push us into accepting than both PSO algorithm and extensions proposed based on the new particles displacement are a promising direction for research.     

A novel two-stage method for well-diversified portfolio construction based on stock return prediction using machine learning

The performance of portfolio model can be improved by introducing stock prediction based on machine learning methods. However, the prediction error is inevitable, which may bring losses to investors. To limit the losses, a common strategy is diversification, which involves buying low-correlation stocks and spreading the funds across different assets. In this paper, a diversified portfolio selection method based on stock prediction is proposed, which includes two stages. To be specific, the purpose of the first stage is to select diversified stocks with high predicted returns, where the returns are predicted by machine learning methods, i.e. random forest (RF), support vector regression (SVR), long short-term memory networks (LSTM), extreme learning machine (ELM) and back propagation neural network (BPNN), and the diversification level is measured by Pearson correlation coefficient. In the second stage, the predictive results are incorporated into a modified mean–variance (MMV) model to determine the proportion of each asset. Using China Securities 100 Index component stocks as study sample, the empirical results demonstrate that the RF+MMV model achieves better results than similar counterparts and market index in terms of return and return–risk metrics.     

Bank interconnectedness and financial stability: The role of bank capital

This paper builds a network model to study the relation between financial stability and interconnectedness among banks. In the model, banks adopt a Value-at-Risk rule to determine capital ratios. It is shown that interconnectedness may hurt financial stability by amplifying the banks’ mistakes of underestimating risk, and that interconnectedness increases systemic risk. The results in the paper suggest that financial integration may hurt financial stability, and that bank interconnectedness is more harmful when the economy turns abruptly from boom to recession. In addition, banks should be given incentives to reduce interconnectedness if systemic risk is a serious concern for regulators.     

Liquidity and bank capital structure

Bank capital requirements reduce the probability of bank failure and help mitigate taxpayers’ sharing in the losses that result from bank failures. Under Basel III, direct capital requirements are supplemented with liquidity requirements. Our results suggest that liquidity provisions of banks are connected to bank capital and that changes in liquidity indirectly affect the capital structure of financial institutions. Liquidity appears to be another instrument for adjusting bank capital structure beyond just capital requirements. Consistent with Diamond and Rajan (2005), we find that liquidity and capital should be considered jointly for promoting financial stability.     

Economic complexity,diversification and economic development: The strategic factors

The aim of this paper is to deliver an econometric panel data analysis on economic complexity by using annual data from 133 countries during the period from 1984 to 2018. This work admits that spatial heterogeneity and discontinuity may affect economic complexity and that there is a more accurate supranational level of analysis and economic policy. The paper shows that variables such as GDP per capita and economic vulnerability strongly affect the economic complexity of a country, while human capital and innovation rate are less significant. The potential of natural resources seems to be negatively correlated with economic complexity.