Effects of Future Demographic Changes on the US Economy: Evidence from a Long-term Simulation Model

Demographics, especially the size and the age composition of the population, contribute substantially to the growth and structure of any economy. Over the next 55 years, the age composition of the US population will change dramatically, as the post-World War II ‘baby boom’ ages into retirement. In this paper, we use a long-term interindustry macro model of the US economy to examine how the age composition of the US population affects overall economic growth as well as the output/employment structure of the economy. We find that the system of funding government commitments to pension and medical care for the elderly is a primary channel through which demographic effects translate into economic effects.     

Productivity and per capita GDP growth: The role of the forgotten factors

Average hourly productivity has often been used to draw conclusions on long run per capita GDP growth, based on the assumption of full utilization of labor resources. In this paper, we argue that a failure to recognize the potential significant wedges among the two variables - even in the long run - can be misleading. By applying both time series and panel cointegration techniques on data on 19 OECD countries, we fail to reject the hypothesis of the absence of a long run common stochastic trend among the two variables in the period 1980-2005. Furthermore, we apply a simple decomposition of GDP growth into five variables, including some related to the supply-side and demographics, so to verify the single contributions to income growth and variance over our period of interest. We conclude that variables that have been so far absent in the growth literature indeed have a non-negligible role in explaining the dynamics of long run per capita GDP growth. In particular, these “forgotten factors” (that we identify with the employment and the activity rates and a demographic ratio) matter more in better performing economies, where we also highlight that productivity has been less important in determining GDP growth than in relatively bad performers.     

Identifying antecedent conditions for luxury brand purchase

This research draws upon self-termination and complexity theories and aims to identify the antecedent recipes for Chinese consumers' intention to purchase Chinese- (referred to as domestic) or non-Chinese (referred to as foreign) luxury brands. Two studies were undertaken. First, an online survey was undertaken to examine the antecedent conditions of luxury brand purchase. The opted conditions in this study include value perceptions, special occasions, and demographic profiles. An asymmetrical method by employing fsQCA was used to identify the unique antecedent conditions of purchase intentions. Symmetrical testing was also performed prior to fsQCA as a comparison. The findings from symmetrical and asymmetrical methods share few similar, but nevertheless complementary findings, hence providing new insights into consumers' luxury brand choices. In the second study, interviews were conducted to deepen the understanding of Chinese consumers’ knowledge, perceptions of, and attitudes towards luxury brands. Discussion and implications for marketing luxury brands in the Chinese market conclude this paper.     

Mobile shopping intensity: Consumer demographics and motivations

PurposeTo investigate how consumer demographics and motivations may influence their mobile shopping intensity.Design/methodology/approachAn online survey was developed to collect data using SurveyMonkey's online shopper panel. The final sample consisted of 937 mobile shoppers. Linear regression analysis was performed to test the hypotheses.FindingsConsumers' education and income levels significantly increase their number of mobile purchases, their frequency of purchases, and the amount of money spent on mobile purchases. Males have been found to spend more on mobile shopping than females, while younger people made more mobile purchases than older people. This study also identifies six types of motivations that drive consumers’ mobile shopping intensity, including convenience seeking, bargain hunting, enjoyment seeking, perceived usefulness, ease of use, and innovativeness.Research limitations/implicationsFuture research may examine additional motivational measures and situational factors and conduct cross-cultural studies.Practical implicationsFindings from this study can help businesses develop their mobile shopping strategies.Originality/valueThis is the first study to investigate how consumer demographics and motivations may influence their mobile shopping intensity.     

酒店顾客射频识别技术使用意愿研究

智慧酒店的出现和迅速发展对顾客行为研究提出了新的课题。顾客信息技术使用意愿直接关系到顾客对酒店的满意度和酒店信息技术投资的回报。文章基于TAM模型,从人口统计特征视角出发,以射频识别技术为例,使用Mplus6.0软件进行数据分析,对酒店顾客信息技术使用意愿进行了实证研究。结果表明,当对射频识别技术产品进行投资时,酒店管理者应考虑顾客使用射频识别技术意愿这个重要前提,而年龄因素对顾客使用信息技术的意愿具有显著的影响;与此同时,酒店使用信息技术产品则有益于顾客体验和员工表现。     

新能源汽车早期采用者特征识别

在低碳经济时代,作为创新产品的新能源汽车,虽然倍受关注,但消费市场仍难有突破。而新能源汽车早期采用者特征的识别,对于早期市场推广极其重要。国外研究表明,新能源汽车早期采用者大多比较富裕且教育水平高,比平均车主年龄稍大,更多的是女性;此外,"混合家庭"是早期新能源汽车的主要利基市场,时尚环保者和驾车成本敏感者是潜在的早期主要采购人群。这些研究结论对我国新能源汽车市场早期推广有着重要启示。     

The Scandinavian model—prospects and challenges

Scandinavian countries are often portrayed in policy debates as model examples having shown how to square concerns for efficiency and equity. The core principle of the Scandinavian welfare model is an individual entitlement to public sector provisions combined with collective financing via taxes. However, a high employment rate is needed to ensure financial viability of this model. The Scandinavian model faces several challenges which affect the possibilities of maintaining a high employment ratio, namely, demographic changes, a growth dilemma and globalisation. This paper discusses how these challenges affect the need and scope for reforms of the Scandinavian welfare model.      

Racial gaps in the transition to first-time homeownership: The role of residential location

Evidence suggests that African Americans wait longer to transition into first-time homeownership than white households with similar endowments. This paper relies on data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics (PSID) to examine the contribution of residential location toward the black–white gap in first-time homeownership transitions. For a sample of young renters who first left their parents' home during the period 1978 through 1987, I estimate continuous time duration models that explain racial gaps in rental tenure durations prior to first-time homeownership as a function of individual, household, and location-specific covariates. I find that while several residential location characteristics, particularly those associated with the supply of affordable owner-occupied housing, impinge upon racial gaps in first-time homeownership transitions, most of the racial gap in homeownership transitions would be eliminated if blacks and whites had similar individual and household characteristics.     

Universal differences in advertising avoidance behavior: A cross-cultural study

The avoidance of TV advertising categories often include either mechanical (e.g., switching channels) or behavioral (e.g., talking to someone). Previous research seeking to explain avoidance with demographic and attitudinal factors shows conflicting results. Our aims are: to identify from these factors any that might consistently predict avoidance (by conducting surveys in three quite different cultures, the UK, Chile and Turkey), and: to compare the influence of demographic factors on avoidance with those of attitude to advertising. Males use more mechanical avoidance methods, whereas females use more behavioral avoidance methods. More educated people generally report higher behavioral avoidance. Family size and age help to explain avoidance in some countries but not in others. A negative overall attitude towards advertising is important generally in explaining mechanical avoidance. Behavioral avoidance is more important and is best explained by a combination of demographic and attitudinal factors. Country of residence is significant in predicting behavioral avoidance.     

人口结构转变与中国住房需求:1999～2025——基于人口普查数据的微观实证研究

本文首次利用人口普查数据对人口结构转变和中国住房需求的关系进行实证研究。经验观察表明,"婴儿潮"很可能是2004年以来中国住房价格快速上涨的重要原因。基于微观家户数据的实证研究发现,中国居民住房需求与年龄高度相关:个人在20岁以后住房需求快速上升,直到50岁以后开始逐步下降;这些实证结果对于测量误差、样本选择、住房产权类型都是稳健的;进一步研究表明,"组群效应"是50岁以后个体住房需求下降的主要原因。以人口结构转变为基础,本文估算了1999～2025年中国的住房需求,发现住房需求增长率很好地拟合了2004年以来住房价格的变化;同时,人口老龄化将导致中国住房需求增长率在2012年以后大幅下降,这意味着中国未来住房需求存在下行可能,宏观调控政策需要未雨绸缪。