金融创新如何缓解信任品市场失灵?——中国食品安全责任强制保险的自然实验

信任品市场(如食品、医药等)存在的问题一直困扰着中国和世界很多国家。关于产品和服务质量的信息不对称(道德风险和逆向选择)会导致信任品市场失灵。缓解信任品市场失灵,一种常见的解决方案是政府监管;而经济学家认为更加基于市场的解决方案(例如强制责任保险等金融创新)可能更为有效。在理论上,强制责任保险有两种相反的效应:保险公司的监督减少了道德风险 vs. 保险加剧了企业的道德风险,但一直亟待实证检验。幸运的是,中国食品安全责任强制保险的改革实验走在了世界的前列。本文利用了中国在不同地区、不同时间推行的这个自然实验,通过双重差分的方法识别出责任保险对于信任品市场的因果效应。本文的研究发现,强制责任保险能显著降低食品安全事故发生概率。这表明政府强制推行的金融创新可以成为信任品市场失灵的一种有效的替代性解决方案。     

The patterns of induced diffusion: Evidence from the international diffusion of wind energy

Recent years have seen growing academic interest in the concept of induced diffusion as efforts to address concerns about energy security and climate change have intensified. Research on induced diffusion explores whether policy tools or interventions can incentivise the diffusion of innovations. This body of literature has explored the effectiveness and efficiency of various policy interventions and as such has been mainly concerned with the determinants of diffusion. This paper is, by way of contrast, concerned with the patterns of diffusion when diffusion is induced. Drawing on the Bass and Davies models of innovation diffusion we develop a number of propositions that suggest that the patterns of diffusion are different when policy plays a role in the diffusion process. These propositions are then econometrically tested in the context of the international diffusion of wind energy in 25 OECD countries. We find that, as predicted, without effective and strong policy interventions, countries will have conventional logistic diffusion with very similar speeds of diffusion. However, as expected the patterns of diffusion take on a different functional form (Bass curve) when there is a strong policy inducement. We conclude by discussing the implications and limitations of these results and suggesting avenues for further research.     

The different roles of product originality and usefulness in generating word-of-mouth

This paper explores how the dimensions of new products, specifically, the originality and usefulness of the products, influence word-of-mouth (WOM). In four studies, using lab and field setups, we find that originality and usefulness have different effects on WOM. We show that consumers spread more WOM about original products, but the valence of what they say depends on the usefulness of the product. Therefore, originality enhances the effect of usefulness such that consumers spread relatively more and more positively valenced WOM about original and useful products compared to less original but equally useful products. Conversely, consumers spread more and more negatively valenced WOM about original products that are not useful compared to less original products with the same level of low usefulness. The results indicate that product originality should be managed carefully when developing and positioning new products. Although originality increases buzz, it might lead to negatively valenced WOM when the usefulness of the product is perceived to be low.     

Why the Generalized Bass Model leads to odd optimal advertising policies

We show that the optimal advertising strategy under the Generalized Bass Model (GBM) involves beginning at an extremely low level (the lower the better) and then increasing spending throughout the planning period. This strategy remains optimal in the presence of decreasing prices that affect both margins and diffusion speed. We provide a simple explanation for why this happens. We further show that the intuitively appealing patterns of continuous decrease or increase-then-decrease (both with an uptick towards the end) identified in earlier research are also possible as optimal dynamic advertising paths under the GBM structure, but only if the advertising at launch is constrained to be higher than a particular threshold, which we identify. The constraint necessary to generate intuitively appealing strategies lowers overall profits. Therefore, the GBM generates advertising policy recommendations that most marketers would deem odd. This casts doubt on the value of the GBM for normative purposes. Other existing diffusion models are preferred when seeking normative guidance on optimal dynamic advertising policies for new products subject to word of mouth.     

A model of multiple-unit ownership as a diffusion process

This paper develops and tests a new model for multiple-unit adoptions of durable goods based on the diffusion modeling tradition. Multiple-unit adoptions are a major component of sales for many consumer durable product categories. For instance, sales of multiple-unit adoptions for televisions have been higher than both first adoptions and replacement purchases since 1977, while for automobiles, they have represented more than 20% of sales since 1966 in Australia. The structural drivers of multiple-unit adoptions are quite different from either first purchase or replacement purchase. Hence, identifying and modeling the multiple-unit component of sales is important for aggregate sales forecasts. Moreover, consumer requirements for additional units of a product are likely to be considerably different than for the other components of sales (first purchases and replacement purchases). As such, the ratio of the first, multiple, and replacement sales components will strongly influence the product mix requirements of the market.

While forecasting and influencing multiple-unit sales are an important managerial issue, very little attention has been given to multiple-unit ownership in the diffusion modeling literature. The only model available was developed for the purpose of modeling relatively short-term behavior of multiple-unit adoptions, rather than the longer-term pattern of sales. We propose a model of multiple-unit adoptions as a diffusion process.

We apply the model to both color television and automobiles. Analysis of the model's long-term fit and forecasts in these applications provide support for the structure of the new model.     

A Welcome Revolution in Innovation

This review considers a major new book on von Hippel’s concept of user innovation. Von Hippel’s work has led to a welcome revolution in the economics of innovation. When producers are the innovators, there is an important difference in the interests of innovators and users. This can lead to dysfunctional innovation, especially in mature markets that are monopolised. In contrast, when users innovate, there are no such problems, as the innovator and the user are the same. User innovation can help enhance the power of innovation in wealth creation, and this edited collection helps to establish user innovation as a fully fledged field of the economics of innovation.     

The moderating influence of style of information processing on media perceptions and information exposure

This study investigated the extent to which style of information processing relates to media perceptions and information exposure. The results showed that visually oriented individuals were more favourably predisposed to the television medium and reported greater exposure to this medium than verbally oriented individuals. Verbally oriented individuals reported greater exposure to print media information than did visually oriented individuals. An exploratory interaction hypothesis between information processing style and gender was not supported. The implications of these results and future research directions are discussed.     

清末教育改革中督抚角色特征及对现代教育发展的启示

二十世纪初督抚以晚清地方权力膨胀为契机,在教育改革中充当了重要角色,深刻影响了中国教育近代化的行程。时过百年,中国的教育今非昔比,然而从权力角度而言,地方行政官员对教育发展的影响依然巨大。本文剖析了督抚在清末教育改革中的角色特征,以期对当前教育的发展有所启示。     

Consumer ethnocentrism,product necessity and quality perceptions of Russian consumers

Retail buyers in Russia have indicated that some customers have expressed a desire to purchase domestically produced products over imports. Consumer ethnocentrism has been proposed as a measure to provide retail buyers with the information necessary to market to these consumers. The purpose of this research is to determine if perceived product quality of products differs based on country of origin, product necessity and consumer ethnocentric tendency. A repeated measures ANOVA test indicates that perceived quality differs by necessity, by product, by country. A consumer ethnocentrism effect on the overall model, however, was not significant. We conclude that Russian consumers do perceive differences in product quality based on country of origin and product necessity, but that consumer ethnocentrism does not have an effect on perceived product quality.     

The designing of corporate accounting law in Japan after the Second World War

After the Second World War, during the neutralization of the controlled economy of wartime Japan, a design for a Corporate Accounting Law was elaborated by the Investigation Committee on the Business Accounting System. The Investigation Committee tried to establish not only new business accounting standards but also a central and independent administrative organ of corporate accounting regulation on the basis of the Corporate Accounting Law. The Corporate Accounting Law was expected to lay the legal foundation of the new corporate accounting regulation regime in Japan. Nevertheless, even though the original design of the fundamental accounting law was never realized, it should be considered the starting point for our understanding of external accounting history in post-war Japan.