Expectations,network effects and timing of technology adoption: some empirical evidence from a sample of SMEs in Italy

We provide evidence on the influence of expectations and network effects on the timing of technological adoption. By considering a sample of SMEs operating in Italy, we focus on the determinants of their decision to adopt Fast Ethernet, a communication standard for Local Area Networks (LANs). We find that both expectations and network effects significantly affect the timing of adoption. In particular, price expectations generally tend to delay adoption and (indirect) network effects in the form of backward compatibility as well as informational spillovers tend to foster adoption. Firm size also matters.

Lead users and the adoption and diffusion of new products: Insights from two extreme sports communities

Lead users are proposed as a valuable resource for marketers in terms of the (1) development, (2) adoption, and (3) diffusion of new products. We present the first consumer study to provide evidence that the latter two suggestions are justified. First, we find that lead users demonstrate stronger domain-specific innovativeness than more “ordinary” users. Second, lead users perceive new technologies as less “complex” and might therefore be better prepared to adopt them. Third, we find that lead users demonstrate stronger opinion leadership and weaker opinion seeking tendencies. Finally, we discuss the implications of our findings for the marketing of new products.     

New product adoption in social networks: Why direction matters

Marketing managers and researchers generally agree that analyzing data from social networks and using them to influence consumers' purchase decisions are useful strategies. However, not all social network data may identify the most influential customers. This empirical study of more than 300 students reveals the low explanatory power of friendship networks (e.g., Facebook) and undirected-advice networks (e.g., LinkedIn). Only directed-advice networks (e.g., Google +) clearly identify influential consumers. In addition, the results challenge conventional wisdom that firms should target advisers assuming that they have the strongest influence on new product adoption. This study contradicts this common assumption and reveals that structural equivalence drives product adoption more than cohesion because advisees' adoption pressures advisers to purchase the product as well. Finally, the study shows the value of social network data beyond the traditional ego-centric psychographic metrics, such as innovativeness or opinion leadership.     

The economics of rules of origin

Rules of origin of free trade arrangements limit the use of inputs from outside the preferential trade zone. A government negotiating a future FTAcan manipulate these rules in order to achieve national welfare objectives. The correct definition of rules of origin may help to enhance demand for domestically produced goods, promote national technological development, and maximize labour income. This paper proves that a more stringent rule of origin implies an increase of demand for the domestic factor if the substitution effect prevails over the effects caused by the decrease of the scale of operation in the domestic plant, and the reallocation of output between domestic and foreign plants. We further show that policy decisions regarding rules of origin that intertemporally maximize welfare and foster domestic technological evolution should be made at the greatest level of disaggregation that is feasible.     

空间双寡头竞争下的创新扩散——基于博弈论的模型

关于创新空间扩散的研究一直没有关注空间竞争对于创新采纳的影响.本文在双人博弈的框架下构建了一个空间双寡头竞争模型,假定厂商已经拥有关于创新的信息,单纯地考察空间竞争对于创新采纳的影响.结果表明,即使同质的厂商同时获得了创新的信息,在竞争的作用下,创新的采纳很少会同时进行.先采纳者具有先发优势,且随着运费率的下降,先发优势愈发得以强化.本文还分析了空间竞争和技术扩散反梯度现象间的关系,结论是空间竞争至少是反梯度现象产生的一个原因.     

Enterprises,incentives and networks: The formative years of the electrical network in Portugal, 1920–1947

Path-dependence, the formation of technological irreversibilities and ownership patterns, have recently been salient aspects in the study of historical networks. This article analyses the formative years of public utilities in a period where the advantages of co-ordination, interconnection or integration between enterprises was still incipient. The purpose is to understand what happens when the competition to expand the physical extensions of nodes and links is suddenly blocked, and the enterprises can only compete to increase supply. The theme is thus of network enterprises operating without some of the standard incentives to economies of scale. The allocational and distributional consequences of this particular situation are exposed through an examination of the case study of Portuguese electrification in the first half of the twentieth century.     

A CGE model of 'Dutch disease' economics in Taiwan

A computable general equilibrium (CGE) model of Dutch disease economics in Taiwan's economy is established in order to examine the impacts of the imbalanced growth in output, endogenous learning effects from imports and exports and the import tariff reduction. Twenty-nine industry sectors and five quintiles of households are taken to measure the changes in industry structure and functional distribution of income. An imbalanced growth, either from output or exports, contributes to the reduction in the share of manufacturing industry, but the deterioration in the functional distribution of income only happens to an imbalanced growth in intersectoral output. A widespread trade liberalization policy helps to mitigate the Dutch disease phenomenon in the sense that de-industrialization and deterioration of the distribution of income by an imbalanced growth in manufacturing industry are not so severe.     

Investigation of factors affecting the diffusion of mobile telephone services: An empirical analysis for Vietnam

This paper analyzes the diffusion of mobile telecommunications services in Vietnam and examines how telecommunications regulation and potential substitute/complement services affect the growth of the number of mobile telephone subscribers. Using a logistic diffusion model, it is found that fixed telephone services are a complement while data services have a negative relation to mobile telephone services in Vietnam. As for regulation, the policy of introducing competition has been found to be the most effective in influencing the adoption of mobile services. Another important result is that the estimated potential market is roughly 76% of the total population. The findings suggest that suitable regulation that guarantees competition in the mobile telecommunications market in a developing country such as Vietnam is one of the most important factors for a positive diffusion process.     

Groupware adoption in a distributed organization: transporting and transforming technology through social worlds

In this paper, we draw on theory from social worlds to analyze how different organizational contexts affect groupware adoption. We report on a study of the adoption of data conferencing in a large distributed organization. Our data show that the diffusion process, which was driven by the users, was a result of communication and transformation of the technology across different social worlds. We also discovered that membership in multiple social worlds in an organization creates a tension for the potential adopter who is in a distributed team. To function effectively, team members must uniformly adopt the technology, yet some may face resistance from other social worlds to which they belong. Our study showed that adoption was affected by organizational sites having conflicting views of the value of collaboration, different amounts and needs for resources, and different acceptance of technology standards. Potential technology adopters on distributed teams are faced with conflicting loyalties, constraints, and requirements between their distributed collaborations and organizational homes.     

Technological forecasting at the Korean stock market: A dynamic competition analysis using Lotka–Volterra model

The purpose of this paper is to attempt to analyze the dynamic relationship between the Korean Stock Exchange (KSE) and Korean Securities Dealers Automated Quotation (KOSDAQ), two competing markets at the Korean stock market, in the viewpoint of technological forecasting of competition. The Lotka–Volterra system of equations, one well-known competitive diffusion models, is adopted to represent the competitive situations of the Korean stock market and it is estimated using daily empirical index data of KSE and KOSDAQ during 1997–2001. The results show that there existed a predator–prey relationships between two markets in which KSE acted as a prey for the time being after the emergence of KOSDAQ. This interaction was altered to symbiotic relationship and finally to pure competition relationship. We also perform an equilibrium analysis of the estimated Lotka–Volterra equations. As a result, we find that there is an equilibrium point in a dynamic sense. However, the equilibrium point could be unstable in the latest pure competition relationship.