时间压力、知识异质性与审计团队判断绩效

任务时间限制和团队知识异质性是审计团队作出专业判断的重要约束条件。解释时间压力下知识异质性对审计判断绩效的影响机制以及通过设计情景模拟实验对这一机制进行验证后发现,知识异质性和时间压力都能够显著影响审计判断绩效,时间压力与知识异质性对审计判断绩效存在交互效应,不同程度的时间压力能够改变知识异质性进而影响审计判断绩效的正负方向,而不同程度的知识异质性则能够显著影响时间压力进而影响审计判断绩效的强弱程度。     

基于AHP的工程投标风险模糊判定模型研究

工程投标决策对提高施工企业风险管理水平,增强企业在建筑行业的竞争能力和企业的经济效益有着重要的作用,因此必须在工程投标时要认真研究分析工程投标风险。本文在企业拟投标的工程项目中分析各种风险因素的基础上,收集信息,建立投标决策的模糊判定矩阵,并运用AHP对模型进行求解,最后判定企业是否进行投标。     

Combining forecasts: An application to elections

We summarize the literature on the effectiveness of combining forecasts by assessing the conditions under which combining is most valuable. Using data on the six US presidential elections from 1992 to 2012, we report the reductions in error obtained by averaging forecasts within and across four election forecasting methods: poll projections, expert judgment, quantitative models, and the Iowa Electronic Markets. Across the six elections, the resulting combined forecasts were more accurate than any individual component method, on average. The gains in accuracy from combining increased with the numbers of forecasts used, especially when these forecasts were based on different methods and different data, and in situations involving high levels of uncertainty. Such combining yielded error reductions of between 16% and 59%, compared to the average errors of the individual forecasts. This improvement is substantially greater than the 12% reduction in error that had been reported previously for combining forecasts.     

浅析新会计准则对投机性盈余管理的影响

2006年2月15日,我国财政部发布了最新<企业会计准则>,宣告中国建立了完整的会计准则体系.新会计准则在很大程度上规范了财务信息的披露行为,压缩了投机性盈余管理的操作空间,削弱了企业管理层利用其进行投机性盈余管理的广度、深度与频度,会计准则对盈余管理起着关键的制约作用.针对会计准则制定的不尽完善及其尚未规范的空白地带,我国会计准则的制定机构,应细化准则中的公允价值概念,健全会计准则的解释与评价机制,优化准则制定程序,为堵塞恶意盈余管理行为构建一套科学高效的财务信息披露机制.     

旅游伦理道德判断与结构性分析

旅游伦理道德是旅游业,也是整个社会顺利运转的润滑剂和粘合剂。伦理道德涵盖了许多方面。本文讨论了旅游企业伦理道德、旅游者消费伦理道德、生产伦理道德、政府伦理道德和生态伦理道德,并将其贯穿于旅游经营活动的始终,进而推动旅游伦理理论和道德观的发展。     

Ethics and Budget Allocation Decisions of Municipal Budget Officers

The purpose of this study is to extend research which has looked at moral judgment. Specifically, the study examines the impact of moral judgment on the budget allocations made by government budget officers. Additionally, and as a result of previous research findings, the study looks at the relationship between political ideology, gender, age, profession and moral judgment.Results support prior research which has found an association between political ideology and moral judgment, and between gender and moral judgment.There was no indication that the level of moral judgment among accountants is different from that of other individuals serving as budget officers, or that age is significantly related to moral judgment. Additionally, the study finds that an individual's level of moral judgment has less of an impact on the individual's actions than does political ideology. Study results contribute to an understanding of the relationship of moral judgment to accounting, and the relationship of moral judgment to behavior. The study also adds to research into the relationship of political ideology and moral judgment.     

风险投资项目评估应用方法——项目效益风险比综合评价模型

风险投资机构一般从投资风险和投资收益两个方面来进行项目评估，本文在对现有的项目评估理论和方法做出详细、客观分析研究的基础上，结合我国风险投资的实际法律、经济、信用、社会文化环境，引入中层次分析法、模糊判断法，提出了一个综合评价效益风险比的改进模型。     

员工职业停滞的理论分类与现实判定

职业停滞的现有分类存在诸多问题,一定程度上导致了目前职业停滞预测效果、治理效果不理想的局面。本研究从内容分析、文献研究入手提炼职业停滞的分类依据,进而透过动机、能力和机会三个层面对职业停滞进行理论分类,最后通过实证研究对职业停滞作出现实判定和检验,为今后的相关研究奠定基础。     

基于资源视角的农业供给侧结构性改革的路径研究

[目的]粮食安全是世界各国政府普遍关注的问题,都将其列为重中之重.粮食主产区是我国粮食生产的核心地带和关键区域,为保障国家粮食安全、协调区域发展,必须从国家战略角度出发,实施粮食主产区利益补偿理念,充分体现社会公平与正义的价值取向和主旨,为粮食安全提供坚实的区域基础.[方法]运用实证分析方法,借助统计年鉴,通过粮食产量、人均粮食产量、粮食播种面积、人均粮食播种面积、人均地区总产值、地区财政收入、人均地区财政收入、城镇化率、居民人均可支配收入等数据分析,比较13个粮食主产区和7个粮食主销区在10年间粮食生产和经济社会发展的客观现实差距.[结果]粮食主产区在粮食产量、粮食播种面积等方面的生产规模优势和生产能力显著,对我国经济社会贡献巨大;粮食具有准公共产品的属性,粮食主产区需要支付高额的生产费用,承担运输成本与储存成本,无法通过市场获得补偿;粮食产销区之间囿于主体功能与发展责任的迥异而导致经济差距较大,主要体现在人均地区总产值、地区财政收入、人均地区财政收入、城镇化率、居民人均可支配收入等差别.[结论]据此提出,必须实施粮食主产区利益补偿,需要完善粮食主产区利益补偿的价值选择与国家政策导向:应在中央政府、区域政府层面完善相应的政策:一是国家层面制定粮食主产区区域政策;二是完善产粮大县奖励政策;三提高财政转移支付力度与精准度;四是建立产销区利益联动机制;五是加强农业基础设施和公共事业建设等.     

海外工程嵌岩桩中风化岩面判定的技术探讨

本文结合马来西亚东海岸铁路项目某标段采用旋挖钻机进行嵌岩桩施工,针对施工单位、监理单位和分包单位对中风化岩石岩面判定存在分歧的问题,提出采用多种中风化岩石判定的方法综合判定,包括参考地质勘探孔,旋挖钻机钻进速度,分析桩内捞出的岩样,捞取岩样进行点荷载试验,使最终的判定结果更加具有说服力。在复杂的地层中,时常会出现孤石、软弱夹层,溶洞等地质情况,所以嵌岩桩中风化岩面的判定显得尤为重要。并结合本工程嵌岩桩施工,详细介绍了中风化岩层的判定过程。