National culture and bank risk-taking

We investigate the relation between national cultural values and bank risk. Despite the rigid transnational regulatory oversight of systemic European banks, we find evidence of an economically significant association between cultural values and domestic bank risk. Specifically, we report a positive (negative) association between the cultural values of individualism and hierarchy (trust) and domestic bank risk-taking. Consistent with our predictions, this relation weakened during the recent financial crisis and does not hold for global banks, regardless of the period under investigation. Our findings are robust to endogeneity tests that mitigate concerns regarding reverse causality and confounding effects affecting our conclusions.     

开放型技术双元促进中国制造业全球价值链攀升了吗——基于微观数据的实证检验

以2008—2018年中国制造业13个子行业1853家企业微观数据为基础，构建Translog模型，分析开放型技术双元及其不同技术组合对中国制造业全球价值链（GVC）攀升的异质性影响。结果表明，企业有效平衡与吸收开放型技术双元形成的协同效应，能够降低进口竞争引致的要素替代成本，促进中国制造业GVC攀升向高技术探索与开发组合的内生驱动转化。技术开发成为中国制造业GVC攀升的充要条件，技术探索为充分不必要条件。在竞争效应和协同效应双重作用下，内资企业高技术开发组合成为推动中国制造业价值链攀升的主要驱动力，受技术门槛和技术控制约束，技术探索只有在内资企业具有足够开发能力时才能对价值链攀升产生显著影响。异质性双元组合催生形成中国制造业GVC攀升的多元化路径。劳动密集型行业依赖进口竞争攀升的低技术双元特征；资本密集型行业较高的外资吸收效率对母国开发与跨国开发技术组合吸收更具适应性，呈现出显著的市场竞争攀升特征；技术密集型行业积极的母国探索倾向与较高的技术开发能力形成技术协同攀升特征。     

Does acquisition lead to the growth of high-tech scale-ups? Evidence from Europe

The post-acquisition growth of high-tech scaleups has received relatively little research attention. This is surprising since buyers are known to target these firms for growth opportunities whilst sellers increasingly seek strategic partners to access resources to scale their ventures. We examine the post-acquisition revenue and employment growth of high-tech scaleups in a multi-country setting, comprising five European economies. Using a propensity-score matching approach and difference-in-differences regression, for a sample of 2187 high-tech scaleups, we demonstrate that acquisition has a positive effect on target firms equivalent to cumulative growth of revenue (employment) of 9–13 (6−10) percent after five (four) years, relative to control firms. We find that nationality matters such that the targets of foreign-owned acquirers exhibit significantly higher cumulative revenue and employment growth than their domestic counterparts. Taking a longer-term perspective, we show that growth dips in the first year, then stabilizes and accelerates in the years following acquisition, indicating a period of adjustment.     

房地产市场化改革与实体经济发展——兼论金融的调节作用

推动金融、房地产与实体经济均衡发展是畅通国内大循环，推动国内国际双循环的关键举措。文章借鉴樊纲等学者的市场化指数测度框架，构建了房地产行业的市场化指数，运用1999-2017年中国30个省市自治区的面板数据，以房地产为第一视角实证检验了房地产市场化改革、金融发展与实体经济三者之间的互动关系及内在机理。研究发现，房地产行业的市场化改革显著推动了实体经济的发展。金融在房地产拉动实体经济发展过程中发挥重要作用，总体上金融支持对房地产市场化改革驱动实体经济发展具有显著的正向调节效应，但这一正向调节效应在金融发达地区并不适用，金融发展水平越高反而抑制了房地产市场化改革对实体经济的拉动作用，且限购限贷等行政限制类政策无法从根本上扭转这一负向调节效应。文章的研究不仅为现有关于房地产与实体经济相关研究提供了新的分析视角，揭示了宏观经济"脱实向虚"风险的内在动因，更为进一步贯彻落实中央"房住不炒"定位，构建房地产市场平稳健康发展的长效机制提供了新的改革思路。     

Higher education expansion and domestic value added in exports: Theory and evidence from China

This paper analyzes the impact of China’s higher education expansion on domestic value added in exports. To be specific, we firstly construct a nested CES production function model, with import inputs being complementary to skilled labors, and substitutable to unskilled labors. By exploiting China’s higher education expansion as a quasi-natural experiment, this paper accurately examines the causal effect of the human capital expansion on the domestic value-added in exports. The results show that human capital expansion has negative effects on the domestic value-added in exports, and this result is driven by import inputs increase and processing trade engagement. We also find that the effect is more prominent for processing trade, foreign-invested firms, high-tech firms and disciplines of science and engineering.     

Fire and ice: The incompatible impact of industry-wide domestic patents and international standards on firm internationalization

This study contributes to firm internationalization theory by identifying domestic patents and international standards as industry-level attributes that differently affect the ability of firms to internationalize. Firms operating in industries with extensive patenting enhance internationalization via technology-based competitive advantages that allow overcoming liabilities of foreignness (LOFs). Furthermore, firms operating in industries with extensive standardization enhance internationalization via the reduction of LOFs that manifest in transaction costs and information asymmetries. Yet operating in industries replete with both domestic patents and international standards raises challenges for internationalizing firms due to the incompatibility of these attributes with respect to LOFs, thus domestic patents and international standards yield a negative joint effect on firm internationalization. We test these priors by employing panel data on the internationalization of up to 4248 publicly-traded U.S. firms in the manufacturing sector over the 1997–2019 period.     

Do your tax problems make tax evasion seem more justifiable? Evidence from a survey experiment

Taxpayers often view tax rules and filing processes as complicated. I study whether the perceived tax uncertainty among peers makes tax evasion more acceptable among the general public. I find strong supportive evidence for this hypothesis using a survey experiment and a large representative sample of the German population. Providing randomized information that others are uncertain about how to file their taxable income decreases individual support for tax compliance. This suggests that subjects judge tax evasion less harshly in response to this peer information. Studying related heterogeneous treatment effects, I find that both older and left-wing subjects are more responsive to tax uncertainty of others. Less harsh views on evasion are persistent for very high compliance levels in a follow-up survey.     

促进企业基础研发能力提升的政府扶持模式选择——基于经济政策与社会政策的比对

国际贸易摩擦与中国经济发展“新常态”要求中国企业在基础研发方面尽快补齐短板，也要求政府在产业扶持中进一步加强对企业基础研发能力的关注。然而，现有研究尚未清晰地分析经济政策支持与社会政策支持影响企业基础创新能力提升的具体机理，也未明确解释政策扶持范围边界和可能产生的扶持越界。基于158家企业498份问卷数据，应用分层线性模型对研究假设进行检验。结果表明：社会政策支持深入程度对企业基础研发能力提升的影响呈倒U型，容易产生政府扶持越界行为；经济政策支持规范化对企业基础研发能力提升的影响呈倒U型，能明显减少政府扶持越界行为；两种模式各有利弊，二者共同使用必须建立在产业发展阶段、企业客观需要和市场有效参与的基础上。     

How well do investor sentiment and ensemble learning predict Bitcoin prices?

Investor sentiment is widely recognized as the major determinant of cryptocurrency prices. Although earlier research has revealed the influence of investor sentiment on cryptocurrency prices, it has not yet generated cohesive empirical findings on an important question: How effective is investor sentiment in predicting cryptocurrency prices? To address this gap, we propose a novel prediction model based on the Bitcoin Misery Index, using trading data for cryptocurrency rather than judgments from individuals who are not Bitcoin investors, as well as bagged support vector regression (BSVR), to forecast Bitcoin prices. The empirical analysis is performed for the period between March 2018 and May 2022. The results of this study suggest that the addition of the sentiment index enhances the predictive performance of BSVR significantly. Moreover, the proposed prediction system, enhanced with an automatic feature selection component, outperforms state-of-the-art methods for predicting cryptocurrency for the next 30 days.     

外资开放、市场分割与产业升级——基于双循环新发展格局视角的探讨

文章首先通过定量识别《外商投资产业指导目录》，构造出我国外资开放度指标，然后，采用价格法测算了我国省际地区市场分割程度，同时借助贸易增加值核算框架测度了我国各省市制造业细分行业的产业升级；在此基础上，将交互模型与非线性模型相结合，实证考察了市场分割视角下外资开放对产业升级的非线性影响。研究发现：第一，外资开放与产业升级之间存在"倒U型"关系。第二，市场分割的弱化会对外资开放与产业升级之间的"倒U型"关系起到缓解，甚至翻转的作用，特别是在外资开放程度较高时，外资开放对产业升级的抑制作用会随着市场分割弱化而得以缓解，甚至转变为促进作用。换言之，我国在持续深化外资开放以推动产业升级过程中需要配合统一的大市场。第三，在解决内生性问题、替换指标、加入更多控制变量以及剔除部分样本之后，结果依然稳健。上述研究表明，构建"双循环"新发展格局是进一步推动我国产业升级，实现高质量发展的重要战略选择，而打破市场分割促进以统一大市场为基础的国内大循环的畅通是当前阶段重要的突破口。