基于互联网大数据的CPI舆情指数构建与应用

研究目标：基于互联网大数据构建CPI舆情指数辅助预测CPI。研究方法：提出了一种构建CPI低频与高频舆情指数的统计方法,并通过选用2006年6月至2015年12月的数据验证了该方法的有效性。研究发现：相关关键词的搜索热度指标具有领先CPI的预测作用,依此建立的CPI舆情指数有助于改进CPI预测精度。研究创新：揭示了基于相关关键词的搜索热度指标与CPI的非线性关系,提出了一种基于门限回归的CPI低频舆情指数构建方法;使用动态因子模型估计出了CPI高频舆情指数。研究价值：预测CPI时可辅助利用基于大数据构建的CPI低频与高频舆情指数信息。     

Analysing enterprise architecture maturity models: a learning perspective

In order to aid organisations in the adoption of enterprise architecture (EA) best practices, maturity models have been proposed in the literature. These models offer organisational roadmaps and assessment frameworks for increasing EA maturity. However, key questions concerning the implied meaning of the term maturity in the context of these models have been left unexplored by previous research. This research, aided by the field of organisational learning, offers new insights into the implied assumptions of current EA maturity models and offers initial concepts and constructs to guide the conceptualisation, construction and refinement of enterprise maturity models.     

Flexible Working,Individual Performance,and Employee Attitudes: Comparing Formal and Informal Arrangements

In the context of a wider trend to individualize human resource management, this article examines the relationship between flexible working arrangements and individual performance. Drawing on a range of theories, this article also examines potential indirect effects on employee performance via job satisfaction and organizational commitment and analyzes whether these relationships vary according to whether the arrangement was set up through a formal process or negotiated informally between the employee and his or her line manager. Extant research has tended to focus on formal arrangements, however, informal arrangements are widespread and may better accommodate work‐life preferences, thereby potentially fostering more positive attitudes from employees. Survey data from 2,617 employees in four large organizations with well‐established flexible working policies are analyzed. Results from structural equation models show average positive indirect effects from informal flexible working, but also negative direct effects from formal flexible working. When two forms of flexible working amenable to being set up by both formal and informal means are examined separately, formal arrangements for flexibility over working hours are found to be negatively associated with performance, but also a source of greater job satisfaction; informal remote working arrangements have positive indirect effects via organizational commitment and job satisfaction on worker performance. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

Influence analysis for Poisson inverse Gaussian regression models based on the EM algorithm

For Poisson inverse Gaussian regression models, it is very complicated to obtain the influence measures based on the traditional method, because the associated likelihood function involves intractable expressions, such as the modified Bessel function. In this paper, the EM algorithm is employed as a basis to derive diagnostic measures for the models by treating them as a mixed Poisson regression with the weights from the inverse Gaussian distributions. Several diagnostic measures are obtained in both case-deletion model and local influence analysis, based on the conditional expectation of the complete-data log-likelihood function in the EM algorithm. Two numerical examples are given to illustrate the results.     

北京文化创意产业集聚区建设研究

近年来,北京文化创意产业发展态势良好,成效显著,形成了一批特色鲜明的文化创意产业集聚区。本文在介绍北京文化创意产业集聚区总体发展情况的基础上,着重分析总结出北京文化创意产业集聚区建设发展的四种典型模式,并提出了进一步推进文化创意产业集聚区发展的对策与思路。     

NONPARAMETRIC AND SEMIPARAMETRIC PANEL DATA MODELS: RECENT DEVELOPMENTS

In this paper, we provide an intensive review of the recent developments for semiparametric and fully nonparametric panel data models that are linearly separable in the innovation and the individual-specific term. We analyze these developments under two alternative model specifications: fixed and random effects panel data models. More precisely, in the random effects setting, we focus our attention in the analysis of some efficiency issues that have to do with the so-called working independence condition. This assumption is introduced when estimating the asymptotic variance–covariance matrix of nonparametric estimators. In the fixed effects setting, to cope with the so-called incidental parameters problem, we consider two different estimation approaches: profiling techniques and differencing methods. Furthermore, we are also interested in the endogeneity problem and how instrumental variables are used in this context. In addition, for practitioners, we also show different ways of avoiding the so-called curse of dimensionality problem in pure nonparametric models. In this way, semiparametric and additive models appear as a solution when the number of explanatory variables is large.     

Noisy signaling in discrete time

This paper characterizes the equilibrium set of a dynamic noisy-signaling model in discrete time. A seller privately knows the quality of her asset. She can exert a costly effort to generate stochastic returns. Buyers stochastically arrive over time and, after observing the history of returns, they make price offers. In our model, the equilibrium behavior of the buyers is discontinuous: they only make acceptable (high) offers if the posterior about the quality is above a given threshold. As a result, the recursive nature of the model replicates the discontinuity, giving the equilibrium continuation payoff a complex self-replicating structure that may take the form of a devil’s staircase.     

Good signals gone bad: Dynamic signalling with switched effort levels

This paper examines signalling when the sender exerts effort and receives benefits over time. Receivers only observe a noisy public signal about the effort, which has no intrinsic value.The modelling of signalling in a dynamic context gives rise to novel equilibrium outcomes. In some equilibria, a sender with a higher cost of effort exerts strictly more effort than his low-cost counterpart. The low-cost type can compensate later for initial low effort, but this is not worthwhile for a high-cost type. The interpretation of a given signal switches endogenously over time, depending on which type the receivers expect to send it.     

Corporate bond market interdependence: Credit spread correlation between and within U.S. and Canadian corporate bond markets

This study investigates the correlation and interdependence between and within the U.S. and Canadian corporate bond markets. The empirical framework adopted allows credit spreads to depend on common systematic risk factors derived from structural models and incorporates dynamic conditional correlations (DCC) between spreads. Results show that there is a surprisingly weak correlation between the two markets in normal times. However, during crises, there is a sudden and strong increase in the correlation between U.S. and Canadian credit spreads. The analysis of credit spread correlation within each market also shows an unusual increase in credit spread correlations between sectors and between risk classes in the U.S. during the 2007–2009 global financial crisis. This increase persists over the post-crisis period. By contrast, in Canada, credit spread correlations between sectors remain remarkably stable over time, suggesting an interdependence of credit spreads within the Canadian market.     

Sovereign default risk in OECD countries: Do global factors matter?

We study the determinants of sovereign default risk for a group of 23 OECD countries using quarterly data spanning the period between 2000:Q1 and 2016:Q3. Applying the recently developed panel dynamic heterogeneous common correlated effects estimator of Chudik and Pesaran (2015) our study innovates in considering potential endogeneity issues and cross-sectional dependence. We control for both global risk appetite and monetary policy stance, as well as country risk ratings. The results show that common factors are the main drivers of solvency risk for our set of countries. Specially relevant, we find that macroeconomic determinants are not significant predictors of long-term sovereign spreads.